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Leicester City v Man United Tips: Bet on Bruno to fire United into the Champions League

43% of Bruno Fernandes' league goals have come from outside the area
43% of Bruno Fernandes' league goals have come from outside the area

The final day of the Premier League season is almost upon us and I’ve previewed Leicester v Manchester United hoping to add to my recent winners of 40/1 and 66/1 in the last couple of weeks. 

This looks the pick of the final day fixtures with a win for either side guaranteeing them a place in next season's Champions League. It will be two from three for who qualifies for Europe’s premier club tournament out of Chelsea, United and Leicester, with the foxes hoping for a slip up from Chelsea if they themselves can not manage to bag all three points.

The top-four betting market has been an interesting one this campaign, with even newly promoted Sheffield United shortening to a single figure price at one point of the season. At the time of writing the current situation is Chelsea 1/9, Man United 1/4 with Leicester the outsiders of the three at 6/4. I’ve also put together a nice little piece on how the odds have changed throughout this season which can be viewed here. It's been one of the main focal parts of this campaign with the title being settled so early, and fingers crossed we get some late drama on the last day.

James Maddison will definitely be out for Leicester after he had minor hip surgery this week. Caglar Soyuncu is suspended after his outrageous red card at Bournemouth, whilst Ben Chillwell, Christian Fuchs and Ricardo Periera are each sidelined through injury. 

For United, Luke Shaw will face a late fitness test after an injury he picked up when facing his former club Southampton last week. Eric Bailey also remains a doubt after missing the FA Cup semi-final against Chelsea with a head injury.

Having a look at the prices for this one the visitors have been made the 5/4 favourites with bet365 with the draw being offered at 5/2. A win for Brendan Rodgers and Leicester is available at 9/4 which I don’t think is too bad a price when you consider they have had a couple of days extra to prepare for this one. 

Leicester v Man United Tip #1
16:00
Youri Tielemans 1+ shot on target
Tielemans has had six shots in his last three home starts with three shots on target No Maddison and should be looking to shoot on sight with the need to pick up a result
Odds correct as of 2020-07-24 17:00 Odds subject to change.

My first selection for this game is Youri Tielemans to have one or more shots on target, priced at 6/4 with betfair. Only Jamie Vardy and James Maddison rank higher in the Leicester averages when it comes to shots per game. Tielemans actually averages 2.1 shots per 90 minutes at the King Power this season and he has taken six shots, with three of those being on target in his last three starts at home.

I think Brendan’s side will throw the kitchen sink here at Manchester United and may take the shoot on sight approach. There’s no James Maddison and Ben Chilwell once again for Leicester which could see Tielemans on free-kicks. This selection is priced at evens with Skybet so I’ve taken a punt on the 6/4 which gives plenty of appeal from Betfair.

Leicester v Man United Tip #2
16:00
Bruno Fernandes to score from outside the area
Three of Bruno's seven league goals have come from outside the area He averages 2.2 shots per game from outside the area
Odds correct as of 2020-07-24 17:00 Odds subject to change.

Next up I’m going for Bruno Fernandes to score from outside the area at 11/1 with Paddy Power. United were 6/1 to make the top-four on the day Fernandes made his debut against Wolves with Leicester priced at 1/16 at the time. Since then Bruno has been a revelation for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and United, propelling them up the table to now sit third going into the final day.

The former Sporting midfielder has scored seven league goals since he arrived at the club with four of those coming from inside the box and three from outside. Of those four from inside the box, three are penalties with the only other being the exceptional counter attack away at Brighton. With almost 43% of his league goals coming from outside the area and with Bruno being on free-kicks for his side, I’ve taken a nibble on the rather generous looking 11/1 available from Paddy Power.

Leicester v Man United Tip #3
15:00
Martial and Vardy 1+ shot on target & Ndidi and Maguire to be carded
Martial has had at least one shot on target in his last five starts Vardy top PL scorer and averages 1.3 shots on target per game Ndidi has committed more 10 more fouls than any other Leicester player this season Maguire has been shown five yellows this season, and could be involved in time wasting towards the end of the game
Odds correct as of 2020-07-24 17:05 Odds subject to change.

Followers of my column will know we’ve had some luck with the longshots since the resumption of the Premier League and my final one for the season is made up of Anthony Martial and Jamie Vardy to have one or more shots on target, with Harry Maguire and Wilfred Ndidi to be carded at 35/1 with Paddy Power.

Tony Martial has enjoyed a good season at United and seems to be revelling in the competition for the position of the most central of the three forwards in the side. He’s had at least one shot on target in his last five starts, and with what’s on the line here in this game, I simply don’t see it not landing again.

Jamie Vardy is currently 1/12 with the bookmakers to be crowned this season’s Golden Boot winner in the top goalscorer market. He’s two ahead of Danny Ings going into the last day and if his stats are anything to go by he should find the target here. Vardy is averaging 1.3 shots on target per game this season and with 23 goals to his name this season, you wouldn’t back against him adding to that come Sunday afternoon.

Onto the cards and my first pick is Harry Maguire. He’s been a mixed bag in my opinion this season, however he looks better value in this market here than the usual suspect of Aaron Wan-Bissaka, who’s finally had his price cut to 15/8 from the 4/1 available in previous games. Maguire has had five yellows in the league this season and should play the full 90 mins against his previous employers here. Time wasting could also become an element late one, for which I’m also backing David De Gea to be carded at 18/1 with Skybet.

The final element of this Same Game Multi is Leicester’s Wilfred Ndidi to be carded. Having a dive into the data shows that Ndidi has committed ten more fouls than any other player in the Foxes squad this campaign. He has six yellows to his name in the league with only Jonny Evans having more. With so much on the line in this game I think we will see plenty of second half bookings from Martin Atkinson in what could be a dramatic end to the season. Enjoy the final Super Sunday of this campaign and as always please remember to gamble responsibly. 

 

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