Japanese Grand Prix Prediction and Betting Tips: Best bets as Verstappen looks to get back to winning ways

The 2024 F1 season is shaping up to be more competitive than the 2023 campaign which was dominated by Max Verstappen and while the Dutchman remains the man to beat, the battle among the top teams should be fierce in Sunday's Japanese Grand Prix.

The fourth of the planned 24 races this season will start at 06:00 BST on Sunday 7th April, with the field tackling 53 laps of the 5.807-kilometre Suzuka International Racing Course. The race will be shown live on Sky Sports F1 in the UK.

While the first two races of the season went the way many observers expected, with world champion Verstappen leading home a one-two for Red Bull ahead of team-mate Sergio Perez, the championship race was shaken up by the result of the third race in Australia.

Verstappen had taken pole position but was forced to retire from the Melbourne race after just three laps and with the Dutch dynamo having won 19 of the previous 20 events, that opened up a rare opportunity for his rivals.

Ferrari's Carlos Sainz Jr. was the man to take advantage of Verstappen's struggles to claim the race win, as he had in Singapore last season the previous time the champion had faltered.

As a result, Verstappen leads Ferrari's Charles Leclerc by only four points in the championship with Perez one point further back and Sainz Jr. in fourth place.

Verstappen has won at Suzuka in each of the last two seasons, leading home Perez in 2022 while the McLarens of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri joined him on the podium in the Suzuka race last September.

Friday morning's practice sessions suggest we are set for a competitive weekend. Verstappen was fastest ahead of Perez in the first practice, but Ferrari, Mercedes and McLaren all looked to be closer on the tail of the Red Bulls than last season.

The second session was spoiled by rain, but Piastri nominally topped the times after only a handful of drivers were able to go out on slick tyres.

Red Bull and Mercedes have won the last 10 Japanese Grands Prix between them and it's easy to understand why Verstappen is just 1/6 to resume winning ways on Sunday.

The challengers are clearly closing in on the champion team and it seems likely that they will be able to spring surprises this season at tracks that don't ideally suit the Red Bull car.

That is not the case at Suzuka, however, as the high-speed corners at the figure-of-eight circuit in the Mie Prefecture allow Red Bull's aerodynamic prowess to come to the fore.

McLaren's strength has also been high-speed performance since their mid-season upgrade last season which was in full effect when they claimed a double-podium finish in Japan. 

The British team should be strong again, but Ferrari have made a bigger step forward at the start of this season and could throw down the strongest challenge to Red Bull this time.
Even so, there is some value to be had in backing Perez to finish second in the race at 2/1 with bet365. The Mexican driver already has two runners-up spots this season and was second in this race in 2022. 

He was also second to Verstappen in Friday's first practice session, with a smaller gap between the pair than has often been the case over the last year, which suggests he should put up a decent showing on Sunday morning.

For a value bet, Japanese driver Yuki Tsunoda is an intriguing prospect at 12/1 to make the top six for the Visa Cash App RB team in his home race.

Tsunoda impressed in Australia, qualifying 10 places ahead of team-mate Daniel Ricciardo in eighth and finishing seventh in the race. 

The diminutive driver will need a couple of the stars from the top teams to suffer misfortunes in order to climb into the top six, but that's not impossible at a high-speed track such as Suzuka where mistakes can easily cause retirements.

The remainder of the race weekend is forecast to be mainly dry but any repeat of Friday's rain would also increase the prospects of an unexpected result and Tsunoda could take advantage at a track he knows well, having won multiple races there in junior race series.