Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills: Week 5 Predictions, Tips and Odds 8/10/23
Posted: 11:48 Friday 6th October 2023
The Jacksonville Jaguars enjoyed their first go-round in London last week and are looking to end their overseas stay with an exclamation mark on Sunday.
The Jaguars will face off against the vaunted Buffalo Bills at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London as we enter week five of the NFL. Jacksonville is coming off an easy 23-7 win over the Atlanta Falcons but are the decided underdogs in this matchup.
Moneyline
Buffalo Bills
Win Probability: 65%
The Jaguars are better on offence than they have shown so far this year but they are running into a juggernaut.
The Bills are No. 1 in Team DVOA through four weeks, including top-3 on both offence and defence.
Jacksonville may be a good team but Buffalo is potentially a great one, and the Bills should be able to flex their muscles, winning the game and covering the spread. I’d expect both passing games to be on point in an entertaining shootout.
Bills -5.5, Over 48.5 Points, Christian Kirk Over 54.5 Receiving Yards
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Prediction
The Bills stumbled in their opener against the Jets but since then have been dominant. Quarterback Josh Allen has surged to the favourite in NFL MVP betting odds, leads the league in completion percentage and has a healthy Total QBR of 72.6 on the year.
Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis remain a tough pair of receivers to stop, and Buffalo has put a renewed focus on the ground game this year, which has made life easier on Allen.
The Jaguars have the No. 11 defence in DVOA but they will still have their hands full in this matchup.
It’s been a bumpy start for Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence and the offense, but it looked good last week and should continue to progress. Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk and Evan Engram are all upper-tier targets, though the Jaguars are facing one of the best pass defences in the NFL.
The Jaguars have enough playmakers to keep pace for much of this contest but Buffalo has too much talent and will eventually take over.
Prediction: Bills 31, Jaguars 24
Prop Bet Tip: Jaguars WR Christian Kirk Over/Under 54.5 Receiving Yards
Kirk had just one catch for nine yards in the season opener against the Colts but has been on a tear since.
He has 23 catches for 248 yards and a touchdown over his past three on a whopping 32 targets.
Lawrence and Kirk have developed a nice connection the past two years, and while the Buffalo secondary is very good, it is now without standout cornerback Tre’Davious White, who is out for the year with a torn Achilles.
The Jaguars are expected to be trailing in this game and Kirk should again get ample targets downfield. He should have another solid outing.
Prediction: Jaguars WR Christian Kirk over 54.5 receiving yards
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