Chargers vs. Jets: Justin Herbert, Zach Wilson and Breece Hall Prop Bet Tips for MNF
Posted: 17:55 Monday 6th November 2023
The Week 9 NFL slate wraps with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and New York Jets.
The Chargers are the 3.5-point road favourites due to the disparity in talent at quarterback, and I like Justin Herbert to help Los Angeles cover that spread.
It’s been a good week for my prop bets, including a 3-0 mark on Sunday, and here are three more to consider heading into this Monday Night Football matchup between the Chargers and Jets.
Prop Bet Pick: Jets QB Zach Wilson Over/Under 18.5 Pass Completions
Wilson is not a good quarterback. Let’s get that out of the way.
But the over on this prop bet has potential.
The Chargers are allowing completions on 68 percent of passes this season because they tend to play soft coverage to avoid giving up the big play.
Wilson is only completing 58.3 percent of his throws on the year, but he has still hit 19 completions in three of his past four outings.
The Jets will likely be trailing late, which will increase the volume down the stretch, and if Wilson is willing to take the easy wins in this game, he shouldn’t have much trouble surpassing 18 completions.
Prediction: Jets QB Zach Wilson over 18.5 pass completions
Prop Bet Pick: Chargers QB Justin Herbert Over/Under 251.5 Passing Yards
Herbert is one of the more talented quarterbacks in the NFL and he is averaging 270 passing yards per contest.
However, this is a tough matchup against a Jets defence that is allowing only 5.3 net yards per pass attempt, which is No. 4 in the NFL.
The Chargers are depleted at wideout, with Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer on injured reserve. Keenan Allen is a star but first-round pick Quentin Johnston has had a slow start to his NFL career.
I think Los Angeles will be ahead late in this game, which will cut down on Herbert’s pass attempts. And when he is slinging it earlier, I expect the yards per attempt to be lower than usual.
Herbert should be solid in this matchup, but I don’t think he will put on a show, finishing with 251 yards or fewer through the air.
Prediction: Chargers QB Justin Herbert under 251.5 passing yards
Prop Bet Pick: Jets RB Breece Hall Over/Under 59.5 Rushing Yards
Hall has a gaudy 5.7 yards per carry this season, but it’s been a feast-or-famine campaign. He has four games in which the average was 3.3 yards per carry or fewer and failed to top 40 yards rushing in any of them.
So this number feels a bit high to me, even with the acknowledgement that the Chargers are generally easy to run against.
The Jets want to stay balanced but Hall could need 14 or 15 carries to reach 60 rushing yards in this game, and I don’t think it happens.
Prediction: Breece Hall under 59.5 rushing yards
- Prop Bets Record This Week: 5-1
- Overall: 36-29
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