NFL Betting Odds: Josh Allen New Favorite For MVP, Justin Herbert a Value Pick
Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow opened as co-favorites to win NFL MVP.
Tua Tagovailoa took over early in the year.
Now, Josh Allen has taken pole position. The Buffalo Bills’ quarterback has been dynamic over the past three games and has surged to the top of the favorites.
Allen has +380 odds to win the NFL MVP at DraftKings, followed by Tagovailoa at +500 and Mahomes at +550.
All three teams are 3-1, which is important, because even though it’s an individual award a team generally has to be among the best in the league for its quarterback to garner attention.
Allen has thrown for 1,048 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions this season. He leads the NFL in completion percentage as well as the advanced stat Completion Percentage Over Expected, impressive nuggets considering accuracy was the biggest knock on Allen early in his career.
Here is a look at the top-10 favorites to win MVP, via DraftKings as of October 2nd:
- Josh Allen +380
- Tua Tagovailoa +500
- Patrick Mahomes +550
- Jalen Hurts +700
- Lamar Jackson +1100
- Justin Herbert +1800
- Christian McCaffrey +2000
- Brock Purdy +2500
- Trevor Lawrence +2500
- Dak Prescott +3000
McCaffrey’s presence is notable following his four-touchdown game against the Cardinals on Sunday. Running backs are rarely considered for this award in the present-day NFL but McCaffrey has been so good that the oddsmakers are taking notice.
Even so, he is a longshot at 20-to-1 odds to claim the hardware.
Best Bet: Chargers QB Justin Herbert To Win NFL MVP
For my money, the best current value on the board is Herbert. The Chargers are only 2-2 but Herbert has thrown for 1,106 yards with seven touchdowns and only one interception.
Herbert is sixth in Total QBR and if he plays well in some upcoming showdowns against Patrick Mahomes and other star quarterbacks, it could turn heads.
Los Angeles has a questionable defense, which means Herbert will be needed to throw the ball downfield all year long. The talent is unquestioned and he may be on the way to a very fine statistical season.
If the Chargers can overtake the Chiefs and win the AFC West, Herbert could be right in the conversation for the MVP. These odds are quite favorable at the moment as others are getting more of the attention after the first four games of the NFL season.
Value Pick: Chargers QB Justin Herbert to win NFL MVP at +1800 odds
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