ISPS Handa World Invitational Betting Tips: Five each-way selections for the event in Northern Ireland

This week concludes the DP World Tour’s six-week stretch in the UK, with the 3rd edition of the ISPS Handa World Invitational at Galgorm Castle in Northern Ireland. 

An event in which both equal amounts of male players of the DPWT and female players of the LPGA & Ladies European Tour compete on the same courses and for equal prize money, though unlike the Scandinavian Mixed won by Linn Grant a few weeks ago, they will be occupying separate men’s and women’s leaderboards, so are essentially completely different tournaments. This preview will be solely concentrating on the men’s competition.

This concept, which also includes an unusual 3rd round cut, started in 2019 on the Challenge Tour, in which we saw Jack Senior pick up the title and returned last year, as Daniel Gavins stepped up from the Challenge Tour to earn a surprise win. Northern Ireland’s Stephanie Meadows and Thailand’s Pajaree Anannarukarn winning the women’s competitions.

Though the event didn’t take place during the covid hit 2020 season, Galgorm Castle did play host to two events, the Irish Open on the DPWT and the Northern Ireland Open on the Challenge Tour, with both events going to Americans. John Catlin won the second of his three DPWT titles in the Irish Open, whilst Tyler Koivisto picked up an incredible victory on his first start as a professional golfer in the Northern Irish Open.

Further to this and before this new mixed concept started in 2019, Galgorm played host to the Northern Ireland Open from 2013-2018. Which gives us plenty of form to go off this week.

One thing that is plain to see from the tournaments that have taken place here is that Galgorm provides a stern test, particularly over the last four events, in which the score has failed to go lower than -13 and possesses an average winning score over the last 10 years of -13.1.

This tough course should once again provide a good stage for this unique competition.

The Course

Not only Galgorm Castle on hosting duties this week but the also tricky Massereene GC will host the players for one round. Though with three rounds taking place at Galgorm Castle, it makes sense to concentrate on that venue alone, especially since all of the stats that come with this event only take that course into account.

Galgorm Castle is a 7151 yard par 70 situated on the grounds of an over 400 year-old estate. This heavily tree-lined course has tight fairways, with doglegs aplenty and quick, undulating greens, which are tough to hit, particularly if you’re not playing from the fairways. As some sticky rough, plenty of strategically placed bunkers and water in-play on over half the holes provide the main defences of the course, aside from the tricky greens, which are themselves defended by false fronts and run-off areas.

It’s a course with a fine balance between some good risk/reward opportunities, with two drivable par 4s within the first four holes on the course on #2 and #4, as well as the gettable par 5 18th. 

This is countered by a short but tricky set of par 3s which contain some of the tougher green complexes on the course, a 600+ yard par 5 that will be no gimme for all and a set of tougher, lengthier par 4s, seven of them over 450 yards, including the 508 yard 9th hole.

It’s a course that will find you out if any part of your game is caught napping, though one in which precise ball-striking and a strong short-game are the key components to success.

The Stats

We’re not blessed with a bounty of stats as we’re only two tournaments into this venue’s DPWT status, whilst stats are non-existent on the Challenge Tour. Though from the small sample size alone, it would appear imperative that you are at your sharpest with your short-game here at Galgorm Castle.

Daniel Gavins hit the ball reasonably well when winning last year though excelled on and around-the-greens, ranking 1st around-the-greens, 2nd in scrambling and 6th in putting. He was followed by David Horsey who too was at his best around-the-greens, ranking 4th and combined it with a strong putter, ranking 11th, as well as some quality iron play.

Then we look at those 3rd place finishers last year and find Alejandro Canizares ranking 4th in putting and 5th in scrambling. Jordan Smith was strong all-round, though shone on the greens, ranking 8th, Masahiro Kawamura produced high class approach play but combined with a solid short-game ranking top 20 both around and on the greens, and although Daniel Hillier is a bit of an outlier amongst last year’s bunch, excelling much more with his ball-striking, the short-game was still solid enough.

Jump back 12 months and though John Catlin produced some high-class, accurate ball-striking in tough conditions, he scrambled better than anyone, ranking 1st and was top 20 for putting and around-the-greens. The other contenders follow a similar pattern to last year, with runner-up Aaron Rai at his best on the greens, ranking 2nd for the week in putting, backing that up with a strong display of scrambling, ranking 4th. With 3rd place finisher, Jazz Janewattananond ranking 5th in putting and 7th around-the-greens, and whilst Australia’s Maverick Antcliff, who also finished 3rd, was at his best in approach, he produced quality around-the-greens, ranking 11th.

However, this does not diminish the need for some quality ball-striking. Both of the two winners here on the DPWT found plenty of fairways, with Catlin ranking 5th for driving accuracy and Gavins 7th, whilst also producing some strong iron-play, which saw Catlin rank 6th for GIR and 8th in approach and Gavins top 25 in both respects.

Again this theme was repeated by the contenders, as all of them ranked top 25 for approach and top 26 for GIR, with many in the top 10 of each of those respective rankings. 

This is an all-round tee-to-green test and whilst the short-game might be the deciding factor between winning and losing, if your ball-striking is off the boil, you won’t be able to get yourself into the picture in the first place.

Key Stats: SG: Around-the-Greens, SG: Putting, Scrambling, SG: Approach

Secondary Stats: Driving Accuracy. Greens in Regulatio

Correlating Courses

Though form-ties aren’t in great volume due to the lack of events here on the DPWT, there are a number of courses that feel like they should fit this tough test and that should develop strong form-ties over time. Predominantly looking at those rather obvious tighter, tree-lined tracks.

Ones that come to mind straight away are the famed Valderrama, which hosts the Andalucia Masters, the Kenya Open at both of those rotating venues, Karen Country Club and Muthaiga Golf Club and the European Masters at Crans-sur-Sierre.

Valderrama does possess one very strong form-tie with John Catlin winning there just two starts prior to his win here in the Irish Open in 2020. Tight, tree-lined and with devilishly difficult putting surfaces, it’s a course that you need to plot your way around and stay patient. Much like this week’s venue, even if Galgorm isn’t quite at that level of brutish difficulty.

Both of the courses that host the Kenya Open are tight tree-lined tracks, though I’d edge on the side of Muthaiga as the preferred correlation, due to the higher level of difficulty.

Aaron Rai is a past winner there and was of course 2nd here in 2020, whilst last year’s winner Daniel Gavins has gone well there too. In addition to this are Stuart Manley and Max Orrin, who both finished 2nd in the event’s days as a Challenge Tour event and have finished top 10 at Muthaiga. 

Whilst Calum Hill backs up the Karen CC link, having won here at Galgorm in 2018 on the Challenge Tour and finished 3rd and 7th at Karen, with Bernd Ritthammer, Jazz Janewattananond  and Adrien Bernadet, all possessing top 3s at both venues.

Crans is one of the most recognisable courses on the DPWT. Set in the Swiss Alps, this course is heavily tree-lined throughout and has that same balance of attackable risk/reward opportunities and more difficult holes that you have to play more strategically. Calum Hill again ties this form in with a top 10 there and is joined by Alejandro Canizares, who was 3rd here last year and has finished top 4 at Crans.

In addition, I like both the Austrian Open at Diamond Country Club, a tough course with lots of water in play that has too been bested by John Catlin, with Daan Huizing and Dylan Frittelli strengthening form-ties and Rinkven GC, which hosted this year’s Soudal Open and previously the Belgian Knockout. Again it’s short and tree-lined, with a combination of risk-reward opportunities and holes you have to plot your way around. Ryan Fox is a past champion at Galgorm and finished 2nd there this year, whilst Ewen Ferguson and Francesco Laporta also have form at both venues.

Finally, due to the length of time this was a Challenge Tour venue and the fact we have a pretty weak field this week, with a number of Challenge Tour players teeing it up, means I felt it necessary to try and find some links between here and events on the Challenge Tour. 

I came up with two, the Euram Bank Open at Adamstal GC and the Le Vaudreuil Golf Challenge at Golf PGA France Du Vaudreuil. Both of these courses are short, tree lined and strategic with plenty of form-lines running throughout.

Calum Hill is a winner of the Euram Bank as well as here, whilst Galgorm runner-up Stuart Manley is also a past champion there and Robin Sciot-Siegrist, who won at this course in 2017, has finished 3rd at Adamstal.

Sciot-Siegrist works to tie in Le Vaudreuil too, possessing 2nd, 6th and 9th place finishes there, whilst Ryan Fox has won at both venues. Aaron Rai has too won the Le Vaudreuil and Clement Sordet, a winner at Galgorm in 2015 has finished 2nd, 3rd and 5th in his native France.

The Weather

There is no difficulty on show in the forecast up to now, with ideal warm, dry and only breezy golfing conditions looking on offer for the golfers this week.

The Field

Richard Bland arrives here this week as the world’s top 100’s only representative at #77. With just two more from inside the top 150, Jordan Smith and Marcus Helligkilde. This is a field seriously lacking in depth though there is still plenty of interest, particularly in those stepping up from the Challenge Tour this week, such as young Northern Irishman, Tom McKibbin, who’s been in excellent form on that tour of late and Deon Germishuys, a highly rated South African who has managed to transfer some strong form he’d shown in South Africa this year, including winning his first pro title, to the Challenge Tour.

Selections

Jordan Smith heads the market at 11/1, though there were excuses for his poor showing last week, it still warns me off him, particularly now at this much shorter price. It’s quite difficult to try and fathom out what is a good price here, there’s many players that I wouldn’t ordinarily consider at these prices but you have to temper those expectations because of how weak the field is.

Still, with that in mind, those top 5 or 6 at the top made little appeal and I start below them with Scotland’s David Law.

David Law is currently in the midst of his best, most consistent season on the DPWT. In 18 starts he’s missed just 3 cuts and recorded three top 10 finishes. With the best of those results coming over his last five starts, where Law has finished 4th in the Irish Open and 3rd in the Hero Open at Fairmont St Andrews, whilst also putting up solid performances in the elite fields of the Scottish Open and Open Championship.

The consistency of Law’s results is matched by the consistency of his all-round game, with no area standing out as a particular negative and he’s gaining strokes overall in every area. He’s straight off-the-tee whilst not lacking for power, good solid in approach and though the putter doesn’t always behave, in those recent 3rd and 4th place finishes in Ireland and Scotland, Law has produced his two best putting performances since 2019.

The strength of his all-round game means Law should suit this course, which is very much reflected by his results here. He’s finished 15th and 35th in the last two years on the DPWT, whilst if we go back to his days on the Challenge Tour, he’s recorded further quality finishes at Galgorm, finishing 8th and 12th. A 2nd place finish at the Euram Bank Open should strengthen his case for this type of setup further.

Law’s game has never looked in better shape than it does right now, with every area of his game thriving he can call on his strong experience at this venue this week to add a much deserved 2nd DPWT title to the one he gained at the Vic Open in 2019.

Marcus Kinhult arrives here off the back of his joint-best finish of the year when 3rd in the Cazoo Classic at Hillside three weeks ago. There he produced a hugely eye-catching approach performance, gaining around 7.5 strokes for the week, his best iron display ever recorded. Add this to a short-game which has been in good form this year and he looks a player who should relish this test.

That 3rd place finish followed a poor period of form for the Swede, where he’d missed 6 cuts in 8, recording a best finish of 27th. Though he did show some strong form earlier in the year, first recording a victory at home on the Nordic Golf League and returning to the DPWT to finish 8th in Kenya and 3rd in Qatar in consecutive weeks.

Those performances were largely engineered by the previously mentioned short-game that sees Kinhult rank 6th around-the-greens and 25th in scrambling on the DPWT this season. As well as a solid enough 82nd in putting, where he’d gained strokes in 8 of his previous 9 starts before the 3rd at Hillside.

He finished 36th here on debut in 2016, though missed the cut in 2020. I believe he’s much more capable of performing here, which is backed up by some good correlating form, including top 10s in Kenya and at the European Masters.

Huge things were expected of this talented golfer when he turned pro in 201,  following a hugely successful amateur career that saw him reach the #2 in the world. He came good on that potential in 2019 when winning the British Masters and though things haven’t been plain sailing since, including that well documented health scare in 2021 that resulted in him being diagnosed with epilepsy, his latest performance gave us another reminder of the talent he possesses. I’m hoping he can carry on the momentum of that result this week.

As a steady, straight hitter with a strong short-game, Wales’ Oliver Farr looks the ideal type for Galgorm Castle. Coming into this week in some of his best form of the year, where he’s also found something with his irons, he can put himself in the mix in Northern Ireland.

Amongst Farr’s recent form is a 10th place finish in the Hero Open, his best finish of 2022. Though he was solid either side of that in the Cazoo Classic, finishing 46th and was 35th last week at home in Wales.

Farr has one of the best all-round short-games on tour this season, ranking 14th in scrambling, 29th around-the-greens and 42nd in putting, whilst also one of the most accurate off-the-tee, ranking 16th in driving accuracy, something well on show not just over recent starts but for the majority of the year. Though the much more solid recent form has been orchestrated by some better performances in approach, an area he’d struggle in for much of the year, where he’s gained strokes in three of his last four starts, including ranking 8th last week in the Cazoo Open.

This should translate well to Galgorm Castle, something evidenced last year when Farr finished 11th, following on from finishing 39th the previous year. With a 7th place finish in Austria adding a solid piece of correlating form.

Though not yet tasting success on the DPWT, Farr is a three-time winner on the Challenge Tour. He can transfer that winning habit to the DPWT this week and take advantage of this weak field on a favourable setup, with all the key areas of his game firing.

We’ve seen in recent weeks with Jens Dantorp how much strong form on the Challenge Tour can translate to contending on the DPWT, particularly in these weaker fields. With that I was interested in a few of the form players from there and whilst Tom McKibbin should relish playing in front of this home crowd, I’ve decided the talented South African, Deon Germishuys represents the best shot at following Dantorp’s lead this week.

There’s been a bit of noise surrounding Germishuys for a couple of years now since he turned pro following a strong showing in the amateur ranks, with the prestigious South African Amateur amongst his successes. 

He took to the pro ranks pretty swiftly, picking up three top 10s in South Africa in 2019 and  continued to threaten over the next two years, but this year is where he has truly taken off. Including a further three top 10s before picking up his first Sunshine Tour title in the Sishen Classic in May.

Since then he’s plied his trade solely on the Challenge Tour, producing an impressive sequence of results for a player playing for the first time out of his homeland. In his eight most recent starts he’s missed just one cut and comes into this with form figures of 11-11-21-6-34-5.

With stats non-existent on the Challenge Tour, we’re left to figure out what kind of golfer Germishuys is by the stats on the Sunshine Tour. This gives the impression of a strong ball-striker, regularly ranking in the top 20 on that tour over recent years in GIR and driving accuracy, as well as being by no means short off-the-tee. Whilst also looking to be solid enough with the short-game. 

A game that should suit this week’s test, which we find further proof of in his finishes on the Challenge Tour this season, as he finished 6th in the Le Vauderuil Challenge three starts ago. Whilst that win at Sishen could also act as a very good guide, as a tricky, heavily tree-lined course.

Germishuys has played on the DPWT a number of times before, in events co-sanctioned with the Sunshine Tour, including making the cut in the 2018 South African Open when still an amateur. Now teeing it up on the main tour for the first time in Europe, he can take that confidence he’ll have undoubtedly gained from his recent exploits on the Challenge Tour and follow in the footsteps of the likes of Garrick Higgo, in transitioning seamlessly to the DPWT.

As a pretty inaccurate and sometimes unpredictable talent, Renato Paratore doesn’t look the ideal type for this test. Having said that, he has shown an impressive ability to manage his game well on these types of setups in the past and coming into this week off the back of his best finish of the year, when 3rd in last week’s Wales Open, where he drove the ball as straight as he has all year, this two-time winner looks a bit of value in this weak field.

Last week was not just Paratore’s best finish of the year but just the 4th time he’s made the cut this year in 17 starts. There had been some small but positive signs before last week though, where Paratore has started to get on top of his ball-striking. This was on show when he gained strokes in both approach and off-the-tee when missing the cut in the European Open, where he also showed some of that improved accuracy off-the-tee. 

He continued this when finishing 58th in the Irish Open three starts ago, though not gaining strokes his losses were greatly reduced compared to earlier in the year, again driving it more accurately than previous and though last week’s excellent finish was no doubt engineered by a field-leading putting performance, the losses in ball-striking were once again minute in comparison to just how poor he was earlier in the season. As he signed off the week gaining strokes in both approach and off-the-tee. I’m hoping he can carry on those improvements this week.

Whilst the long-game has struggled this season, that excellent putting performance wasn’t out of the blue as Paratore’s short-game has been in good shape all season, seeing him rank 10th on tour around-the-greens and 18th in putting.

If he can combine that with a further improved long-game he would look a real player this week. This is backed up by some strong form on similar tests, most notable are his two 7th place finishes in the European Masters, as well as an 11th in the Austrian Open. Whilst he went well for three rounds at Valderrama last year too.

Most important for me this week is that in a weak field full of non-winners and those who are unproven, Paratore is a proven, two-time DPWT winner, having won the Nordea Masters in 2017 and doubling up by winning the British Masters in 2020. Finding some excellent form last week and making gradual gains in those important areas, he looked great value this week.