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I'm a Celebrity Tips: According to the stats, who is the best bet to win series 20?

I'm a Celebrity Tips: Vernon Kay looks a big price at 6/1
I'm a Celebrity Tips: Vernon Kay looks a big price at 6/1

I'm a Celebrity returns to our screens this Sunday, symbolising the build-up to Christmas and the finale of the most bizarre year in modern history. 

Due to coronavirus, this year’s edition of the hit ITV show will take place at Gwrych Castle in Abergele, North Wales rather than the Australian jungle, but expect the same amount of Kangaroo testicles, cockroaches and rattlesnakes to be present as series 20 looks to separate the men from the boys. Or women from girls, you know what I mean.

The line-up

As always, there is a whole host of familiar faces getting set for a three-week jungle (well, castle) experience this Sunday, with Sir Mo Farah flying the flag for the sporting category. The full list of contestants and their outright odds are as follows:

Shane Richie, Actor - 9/2
Giovanna Fletcher, Author - 4/1
Jordan North, Radio Presenter - 4/1
Vernon Kay, TV Presenter - 6/1
Sir Mo Farah, Olympian - 7/1
AJ Pritchard, Dancer - 12/1
Jessica Plummer, Actor - 12/1
Hollie Arnold, Paralympian - 20/1
Beverley Callard, Actor - 25/1
Victoria Derbyshire, Journalist/TV Presenter - 40/1
Russell Watson, Tenor - 40/1 (late entrant)
Ruthie Henshall, Actress - 40/1 (late entrant)

Former Eastenders actor Shane Richie is the current bookies favourite to be crowned King of the Jungle at 3/1 with some firms, though Betfred are offering slightly better odds of 9/2 for the ex-Albert Square resident to go the distance which represents good value if you can see him coping well with the makeshift jungle.

TV Specials odds

Previous winner profile

After doing some digging, it is surprising to see that only three sportsmen have won I’m a Celebrity since the show started in 2002 - cricketer Phil Tufnell (2003), superbike champion Carl Fogarty (2014) and ex-footballer/football manager Harry Redknapp (2018).

Indeed, the most common winners of the show have been actors and musicians, with the former laying claim to four of the awards, and the latter claiming five, which is perhaps why the lovable ‘Alfie’ from Eastenders (Shane Richie) is so high up in the outright betting. 

However, such is the modern age, there has been a surge in reality TV stars winning the show in recent years. Back in the noughties, these television personalities were practically unheard of, but after shows like Geordie Shore and The Only Way Is Essex were introduced in the early-2010s, more and more of these ‘stars’ are being signed up to the show to appeal to a younger demographic. 

Between the years of 2015 and 2017, the three Queens of the Jungle were all known from various reality TV shows, with Vickie Pattison (Geordie Shore), Scarlett Moffatt (Gogglebox) and Georgia Toffolo (Made in Chelsea) all well-known because of their appearances on reality TV, showing just how engaged the audience now is to these types of contestants.

So, who’s going to win?

There are no reality TV stars in this year’s line-up, however, which opens the door for speculation surrounding who will win the 20th helping of I’m a Celeb. 

While this market changes rapidly on a day-to-day basis, with a slip of the tongue all that is needed for the contestants to completely lose the vote of the public - or indeed gain it - looking at the line-up there are a couple of names that stand out from the outset. 

My tip is Vernon Kay. The charismatic TV and radio presenter, perhaps best known for his appearances on Family Fortunes, has a big following and the physicality to cope with the challenges that lie ahead, and should also offer up some decent entertainment value in the process.

I’m a little surprised to see the Bolton native at 6/1 in the outright betting, and will be having a little dabble on him to go the distance before his price inevitably decreases. 

I'm a Celebrity Outright Tip
Sun, 20:00
Vernon Kay to win the show
WIN PROB: 14.29%
6
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?

Has a huge following from his extensive stint on TV, should be good entertainment value

We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-11-11 16:55 Odds subject to change.
I'm a Celebrity odds

Giovanna Fletcher
WIN PROB: 67%
1
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Jordan North
WIN PROB: 33%
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We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-12-05 02:10 Odds subject to change.
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