Eurovision 2023 Odds: Finland can go all the way in Liverpool
With less than 30 days to go until Eurovision 2023, all 37 entries have been chosen and now is a good time to look at who are the favourites to win the contest. We'd like to welcome Tom Davitt to our team here at BettingOdds and you can read more on his thoughts about this year's event below.
At this point in time, there are three main countries in the running to win, as well as several dark horses. The contest will again be decided by an approximate 50/50 split between the jury and the televote in the Eurovision final on May 13th.
Sweden - 5/6
The current odds-on favourite to win is Sweden, who have won twice in the last 10 editions. Their 2012 winner, Loreen, is back with another dark electronic pop song and sensational staging.
Sweden are always considered a contender to win, often being top of the odds in the off-season before any songs have been released.
This is due to their consistency in finishing Top 5 in six of the last eight years in the overall results. They’ve also been Top 3 in the jury vote in four of the last five contests, owing to their excellently produced and slickly staged pop entries.
With current information, the consensus this year is that they will likely win the jury vote this year. Loreen is a seasoned performer who is guaranteed to give an excellent rendition of her entry. No nerves or wobbles here.
The more unsure thing though is the televote, which Sweden have comparatively struggled in since their last victory in 2015, not reaching its Top 5 a single time since then. This is despite being Top 5 in the overall results in 2016, 2017, 2019 and 2022.
No winner of Eurovision since 2015 has ever been outside the Top 2 of the televote, let alone its Top 5. So, while Sweden may have decoded the jury puzzle, the same can’t be said of the televote yet.
Are the general public getting tired of them consistently sending solo pop artists with a slick stage show?
Loreen’s entry has a lot in common with many of these great, quality but formulaic entries – will she be able to get different results with a similar recipe?
Her magnificent stage show at their National Final, which involved a 1.8 tonne LED sandwich, will not be allowed in Liverpool, due to a rule about not being allowed to hang anything from the ceiling. How well her team can adapt that staging to these constraints could be a deciding factor.
Ukraine - 5/1
Another favourite is Ukraine, who were the first country to choose their entry this year in December and who led the odds up until February 22nd, before being overtaken by Sweden and eventually Finland.
Tvorchi’s song “Heart of Steel”, an electronic pop song inspired by the defence of the Azov steel plant and a homage to the fighting Ukrainian spirit, currently sits at 5/1.
It appears most of the money placed on this so far was during the first two weeks of February, where their winning chances climbed from 14% up to 25%, but since then they’ve been on a gradual and steady decline down to 10%.
Last year, Ukraine’s song “Stefania” set the record for televote points received, with a total of 439.
My interpretation is that a lot of money was placed on this market early on the season, hoping that Ukraine will receive a gigantic televote again this year.
The consensus within the community is that this year’s song doesn’t have the same magic that Stefania did, a song which was already Top 5 in the odds before the renewed invasion of Ukraine even began.
Personally, I don’t think their televote will be as large as last year. Then, Europeans were looking for any way to demonstrate support for Ukraine, but since, support has been shown in a multitude of ways. And this year’s song doesn’t lean as much into Ukraine’s cultural identity as Stefania did.
But the televote is unpredictable, and if events around the time of the contest stir the public, another wave of support is possible.
Finland - 4/1
The final favourite is Finland’s Käärijä with his rock/rap banger “Cha Cha Cha”, sung in Finnish.
Currently sitting second in the odds at 4/1, there is little doubt in the community that the rapper is the favourite to win the televote.
His risky and exhilarating performance will definitely grab everyone’s attention, albeit in a likely divisive way. But the first step to being a televote winner is standing out. In the last 6 years, the televote winner has wielded an average of 55 points more than the jury winner.
The big concern with Käärijä, is whether his boisterous, crazy performance will be able to do well enough with that more conservative jury.
2021 winners Måneskin and last year’s winner’s Kalush Orchestra both came 4th in the jury and managed to win.
Would that potential 55-point buffer that Käärijä may have over potential jury winner Loreen be enough to cross the line?
There are also several dark horses lurking around as well.
Israel, Austria, France and Spain all have a potential case to be made for being contenders, but they likely won’t be able to make any big jumps until the first rehearsals begin being leaked at the end of April.
Remember that Conchita, who won in 2014, was 33-1 before rehearsals began.
Who To Back
With Eurovision 2023 potentially coming down to Sweden’s televote score vs Finland’s jury score, who do I think will win?
Well, four of the last six winners have been the televote winner, so with the current information, my current pick is Käärijä.
Loreen is clearly a favourite, but I believe that her odds are exaggerated due to her being an early safe bet as a previous winner and my belief that early odds betting is more dominated by Eurovision fans.
If the general public resonates with the song in the same way that the fandom do, this is a clear winner, but recent evidence shows it mightn’t.
For each way odds, I currently like Finland at 4/1 as I would be gobsmacked if Finland finished out of the Top 4 right now.
Spain’s Blanca Paloma at 16/1 also seems like a potentially good each way bet. She was as high as 40/1 in early March.
If you want any more Eurovision Analysis, check out my Eurovision Youtube channel at youtube.com/@ESCTom and my Twitter @EurovisionTom.