Spain vs Germany Prediction, Stats, Offers & Team News: Back Tackles in 19/2 longshot
Posted: 16:03 Friday 5th July 2024
The first game in a bumper Friday night of Euro 2024 action sees Spain take on the host nation Germany. The game will take place in the Stuttgart Arena and our man Matthew O’Regan is predicting a tackle-heavy affair.
Spain vs Germany Predictions
- David Raum and Joshua Kimmich over 1.5 tackles each @ 11/8 with bet365
- Over 19.5 tackles each for Spain and Germany @ 17/2 with bet365
- Full-Time Result Prediction: Draw
- Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Under
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Yes
- First Goalscorer Prediction: Alvaro Morata
- Correct Score Prediction: Germany 1-1 Spain
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This match arguably sees the two standout teams in the tournament pitted against each other in front of a boisterous sell-out crowd.
Spain have been imperative so far, topping the group of death with ease. An opening game 3-0 drubbing of Croatia set the tone for the rest of the group before Luis De La Fuente’s side beat Italy and Albania 1-0.
They survived an early scare in their last-16 clash with perennial underdogs Georgia after Robin Le Normand bundled into his own net after a teasing Otar Kakabadze cross.
However, Spain were not phased, with Rodri equalising just before halftime, before Fabian Ruiz, Nico Williams and Dani Olmo sealed the deal in the second half.
Germany have been equally as impressive. A 5-1 thrashing of Scotland meant that the hosts started the tournament on the front foot, before following this up with a routine 2-0 win over Hungary.
A stoppage-time equaliser from Niclas Füllkrug rescued a draw against Switzerland to ensure Julien Nagesmann’s side topped the group.
Denmark were then defeated in a controversial match, setting up a blockbuster quarter-final clash with Spain.
Spain XI: Simon; Carvajal, Le Normand, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Pedri, Fabian; Lamine, Morata, Williams.
Germany XI: Neuer; Kimmich, Rudiger, Tah, Raum; Can, Kroos; Sane, Gündogan, Musiala; Havertz.
David Raum and Joshua Kimmich Over 1.5 Tackles each
Long gone are the Spain team of yesteryears that were for so long stuck in their ways. So often we have seen Spain struggle to break down opposition defences due to their slow and predictable passing play.
However, De La Fuente has revolutionised La Roja, with abundant young talent taking centre stage. Wingers Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal are the most notable of this plethora of youngsters.
Williams plies his trade at Athletic Bilbao, where he racked up 16 goal contributions in 29 La Liga starts. The 21-year-old won plaudits for his bravery and eagerness to take on a full-back, completing an average of 3.39 successful dribbles per 90.
16-year-old sensation Lamine Yamal burst onto the scene for Barcelona this season, starting 22 times in La Liga. Like Williams, Yamal is direct with his running, completing 2.87 successful dribbles per 90 in the league.
The duo have shone at this Euros, tormenting their opposite numbers. In the three games that Williams has played thus far this summer, the right back against him has made an average of 4.66 tackles per game.
While left-backs against Yamal are averaging a slightly lower number (2.33 per game), both full-backs have hit at least two tackles against Spain – a trend I expect to continue against Germany.
Over 19.5 Tackles each for Spain and Germany
While Spain have still boasted more possession in 3/4 of their games, De La Fuente’s side typically have less control in games than we have grown to expect.
Their game against Croatia saw a 14-14 tackle split, despite Spain racing into a 3-0 lead. This was followed up with a 16-32 split against Italy. Despite the game against Albania being a dead rubber, Albania managed 17 tackles to Spain’s 15.
Despite having the majority of possession in their domination of Georgia, Spain drew 20 tackles and made 18.
Germany only had 10 tackles in the opener to Scotland’s 15, but this game was marred by an early red card. From here, Germany games have seen 17-13, 17-17 and 9-18 splits.
In a game where both teams will look to control the game, I expect plenty of frantic challenges in an entertaining clash.
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