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England v Belgium Tips: Potential value in the shots on target market at Wembley

Gareth Southgate's side lost on two occasions at the 2018 World Cup against Belgium and we've got three tips for this Sunday's game at Wembley
Gareth Southgate's side lost on two occasions at the 2018 World Cup against Belgium and we've got three tips for this Sunday's game at Wembley

England take on Belgium at Wembley this Sunday in the second of three games for the Three Lions in October’s International break. It’s the Nations League where these two sides pair off on this occasion after both sides featured in midweek friendlies. 

Belgium are currently top of the table after two wins from two. England sit in second place on four points after Gareth Southgate’s side played out a goalless draw against Denmark just over a month ago. 

Belgium won both games against England at the 2018 World Cup and this will be the first time the two have met since. There will be plenty of changes for England after Wednesday’s win over Wales, with Tammy Abraham and Jadon Sancho being recalled after breaking rules around Covid-19. Jordan Pickford should replace Nick Pope in goal, with starts for Harry Kane and Marcus Rashford.

Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku should both start the game with the latter leading the line on his own. Veterans Jan Vertonghen and Toby Alderweireld could feature in a back three alongside Jason Denayer of Lyon.

Belgium are the slight favourites with the bookmakers, with odds on offer of 6/4 for the win - an implied 40% chance. The draw is available to be backed at 12/5, with a win for England, which would see them go top of the group, priced at 7/4. I’ve picked out three football tips which I like the look of for the game, all available from Paddy Power. 

Axel Witsel 1+ shot on target - 1pt @ 16/5 Paddy Power

Kevin De Bruyne 2+ shots on target - 1pt @ 4/1 Paddy Power

Rashford & Lukaku 1+ shot on target, Vertonghen & Alexander-Arnold to be carded - 0.25pts @ 50/1 Paddy Power.

England v Belgium Tip #1
Axel Witsel 1+ shot on target
Looks overpriced in the shots on target market Registered four shots in his last game with all four hitting the target
Odds correct as of 2020-10-10 14:15 Odds subject to change.

First up I’m backing Axel Witsel who looks a little overpriced to register one or more shots on target at 16/5. In Belgium’s most recent game against Iceland the 31-year-old bagged himself his tenth International goal. He actually managed four shots during that game and all four of them hit the target. 

I can’t see Witsel being quite as much of a threat in the final third against England on Sunday but looking at his prices of 16/5 for one shot on target, or the 25/1 for two shots on target, they do look slightly inflated. Skybet have the same selections at the shorter prices of 5/2 and 16/1, and considering the tougher opponent in England, I’ve opted to take the 16/5 from Paddy Power for Witsel to register one on target on Sunday.

England v Belgium Tip #2
Kevin De Bruyne 2+ shots on target
Scored 13 league goals last season for Manchester City and has 19 International goals for Belgium Free-kick and penalty taker Averaging 3.7 shots per game for City this season
Odds correct as of 2020-10-10 14:35 Odds subject to change.

Staying in the shots on target market for my second selection and this time I’m fancying Kevin De Bruyne to have two or more shots on target, priced at 4/1. The Manchester City midfielder was named the PFA player of the year for 2019/20, racking up 13 league goals and equalling Thierry Henry’s record of 20 assists in a single campaign.

We all know his ball striking talents and with Romelu Lukaku potentially leading the line on his own and Axel Witsel sitting slightly deeper, I expect KDB to be getting forward on plenty of occasions. He’s on free-kicks and penalties for the visitors and at 4/1 he looks a reasonable price. I’ve seen him around the 2/1 mark on occasions for two shots on target and at 4/1 I’m willing to have a small play with Paddy Power.

England v Belgium Tip #3
Rashford & Lukaku 1+ shot on target, Vertonghen & Alexander-Arnold to be carded
Rashford averaged 1.4 shots on target per game for Manchester United last season  Romelu Lukaku scored 34 goals in all competitions for Inter Milan last season Jan Vertonghen's ageing legs could be tested by the pace of Rashford and Sancho Only Fabinho and Joe Gomez picked up more cards for Liverpool last season than Trent.
Odds correct as of 2020-10-10 14:25 Odds subject to change.

I always like to pick out something at a bit of a price and it’s no different this weekend. To accompany your Sunday roast, I’ve picked out a 50/1 longshot of - Marcus Rashford and Romelu Lukaku to have one or more shots on target, with both Trent Alexander-Arnold and Jan Vertonghen to be carded.

First in this quadrant of selections that make up this Same Game Multi is Marcus Rashford to have one or more shots on target. The Manchester United forward has now been given an MBE from the Queen and his services off the pitch continue to make a huge impact across society. On the pitch, he makes more appeal in the shots market than fellow forward Harry Kane with Rashford priced at 1/2 and Kane 1/6 to have a shot on target.  

As mentioned above, big Romelu Lukaku should be leading the line for Belgium. The 27-year-old netted 23 league and 9 goals in Europe for Inter Milan last season and he’s been producing some of the best football of his career under Antonio Conte. He’s the most likely threat in front of goal for Belgium and the one I want included in this 50/1 shot.

Moving onto the bookings for the game and the first I’ve picked out is Jan Vertonghen of Belgium. Now at the ripe old age of 33 Vertonghen is not getting any younger or any quicker. I feel the pace of Marcus Rashford and Jadon Sancho can cause him real problems at Wembley and he could be in for a long evening.

For England I’ve opted for Trent Alexander-Arnold to pick up a card from referee Tobias Stieler. The PFA young player of the year 2019/20 was booked on five occasions in the Premier league in the most recent campaign and has already picked up one in this new term. Only Fabinho and Joe Gomez were awarded more cards than Trent last season for Liverpool and with the potential for Eden Hazard to be running at him he can pick up another against Belgium.

The game can be seen live on Sky Sports Main Event, and kicks off at 17:00. Best of luck to those following the selections this weekend. Please always gamble responsibly.

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