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Charles Schwab Challenge Tips: Three value picks against the field as the PGA Tour returns at Colonial.

Tony Finau one of a number of value plays with course form in Texas.
Tony Finau one of a number of value plays with course form in Texas.

The PGA Tour returns on Thursday with the Charles Schweb Challenge played at Colonial Golf Club in Fort Worth, Texas.

A ball hasn't been struck in anger since The Players Championship was cancelled on the 8th March which could explain the stellar field assembled this week.

Rory McIlroy heads the betting at 8/1 as he makes his first visit to Colonial, whilst the likes of John Rahm, Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson all line up in a field that contains 16 of the top 20 in the current world rankings, with only Adam Scott, Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood and Tiger Woods absent.

With mainstream golf on the sidelines for three months, this isn't going to be your typical betting preview. With no recent form to go off, we've taken a strong look at course form and there's plenty to call upon with Colonial a mainstay of the PGA Tour having hosted a tournament in some guise nearly every year since 1946.

The break will have punters licking their lips and Paddy Power have pushed the boat out with their 10 places concession, whilst the likes of William Hill and Betfair (8 places), Betfred (7 places) and Bet365 (6 places) are all giving punters a good choice for their golf betting this week.

Ryder Cup Odds
Charles Schwab Challenge At A Glance

Countdown fans will know that when it comes to the numbers round the contestant will ask Rachel or Carol (depending on your vintage) to take numbers from the top and the bottom, and we like to give our golf tips from the top, middle and bottom of the betting.

We've whittled the field down to nine players with some good course form to take from. Obviously this year's edition of the tournament is much stronger than a usual year, but the likes of McIlroy, who is rated an implied probability of 11% to win according to the bookies, plus the other top golfers allow us some better value further down the betting. If you're ever going to back against the favs it would be this week with no recent form to go on.

Towards the top of the betting, the likes of John Rahm and Webb Simpson stand out. Rahm has only played the course three times and although he missed the cut twelve months ago he recorded a tie for fifth and a tie for second in his other two starts at Colonial. At best price 12/1 he's the second favourite behind McIlroy with William Hill and Betfair both paying eight places if you were to back the Spaniard each-way.

Nearly double the price is Webb Simpson at 22/1. The American has also recorded two top tens in his three appearances in the last six years, missing the cut on his most recent appearance in 2018.

At the prices it's Simpson that gets the nod, the world number nine ranks fifth on the Fedex Cup this season and was 3rd in the Sony Open of Hawaii at the beginning of the year, which could be considered a decent guide for players returning after a lay-off. Simpson is 22/1 best price with Hills and Betfair who both go eight places.

PGA Tour Golf Tip #1
13:00
Webb Simpson each-way
Thu 11th June - Charles Schwab Challenge - Colonial GC
WIN PROB: 4.35%
22/1
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?
  • Two top tens in three appearances at the course
  • 5th in the Fedex Cup rankings
  • Four top tens and a win to his name this season
Odds correct as of 2020-06-09 18:10 Odds subject to change.

Further down the betting we've picked out five players to take a look at in the 40/1 to 100/1 bracket.

Jordan Spieth has a really good record at Colonial. A Texas native, Spieth has finished in the top ten five times in the last seven years, winning in 2016 and tied for second place in 2015 and 2017.

The former world number one and three-time major winner has been falling down the rankings over the last 18 months. Trouble off the tee and with his putting won't give backers too much confidence and with a number of golf tipsters putting him up this week the value may already have gone, into 45/1 from 66's.

At a smidge bigger in the betting, last year's champion Kevin Na makes some appeal at 55/1. The American is a veteran of the PGA Tour having amassed over $32m from 408 tournaments in winnings he'd gotten a bit of a reputation as a nearly man, but three of his victories on tour have come in the last three years. All of his wins have come in 'lesser' tournaments in terms of quality however and as defending champ it might be too much to ask of Na in 2020.

Others that catch the eye in this bracket include 80/1 chance Kevin Kisner who won here in 2015 and has a further two top ten finishes in the last six years, but it's his compatriot Ryan Palmer who catches the eye at the same price.

Other than having a brilliant name shared by this particular author and one that is also synonymous with golf, Palmer boasts a very good record at Colonial. Finishing in a tie for 6th place 12 months ago, Palmer boasts another five top 10 finishes at the course. Ranked just inside the top 50 in the Fedex rankings he's having a better season than Kisner and looking for a fast start like he had at the top of the year when finishing 4th in the Sony Open of Hawaii in January.

Colonial is Palmer's home course and he's our second tip this week, at 80/1 with Bet365 who are paying each way terms to six places.

PGA Tour Golf Tip #2
13:00
Ryan Palmer each-way
Thu 11th June - Charles Schwab Challenge - Colonial GC
WIN PROB: 1.23%
80/1
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?
  • T6 here last season
  • Five more top ten finishes at the course
  • Colonial is his home course
Odds correct as of 2020-06-09 18:10 Odds subject to change.
Past Winners In This Week's Field

Our course form study highlighted a couple at massive prices. Rory Sabbatini, the South African who plays under the Slovakian national flag has a couple of top tens to his name in his last four visits to Colonial and was a winner here in 2007 and can be backed at 140/1, whilst 200/1 shot Chris Kirk has loved it at Colonial. The winner in 2015, Kirk has also registered top 10 finishes in 2012 plus top 20 in 2018, 2017 and 2014. The American isn't enjoying a great season by any means and that's baked into his price, but at 200/1 we wouldn't discourage you from having a small each-way place, with William Hill paying eight places as well.

Our final pick comes in the shape of the considerable shape of Tony Finau. The 6ft4 American ranks #10 in strokes gained on the PGA Tour this season and were it not for his putting he'd rank a lot higher and win a lot more tournaments.

Finau does have just the one win on Tour back in 2016, but with three top ten finishes already this season plus the second place here 12 months ago. If he can get his putter going in Texas this week we like the look of him to complete our three picks for the Charles Schwab Challenge at 40/1 with William Hill.

We're all excited to have the golf back and whilst we think there's never been a better time to look down the field to find your suggestion it's important to remember not to go overboard with the betting. Good luck!

PGA Tour Golf Tip #3
13:00
Tony Finau each-way
Thu 11th June - Charles Schwab Challenge - Colonial GC
WIN PROB: 2.44%
40/1
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?
  • Second here 12 months ago
  • Three top 10's this season
  • Ranked #10 in strokes gained on PGA Tour
Odds correct as of 2020-06-09 18:15 Odds subject to change.
Charles Schwab Challenge Odds
Odds are currently not available for this event
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