BMW International Open Betting Tips: Five tips including a 150/1 shot

This week the DP World Tour heads to Germany for the BMW International Open at Golfclub Munchen Eichenried. Our regular writer Jamie Worsley previews this one and gives us his best five bets for the week ahead. 

BMW International Open 2022 Tips

• Thomas Pieters 22/1 – 1/5 8 places (Bet365 – Each way extra) – 2.5 pts ew
• Romain Langasque 50/1 – 1/5 8 places (Bet365 – Each way extra) – 1 pt ew
• Haotong Li 66/1 – 1/5 8 places (Bet365 – Each way extra) – 1 pt ew
• Matthieu Pavon 80/1 – 1/5 8 places (Boylesports) – 1 pt ew
• Joakim Lagergren 150/1 – 1/5 7 places (Betfred) – 1 pt ew

The event dates back to 1989 where it has primarily taken place at this same venue, though briefly shared hosting duties with Golf Club Gut Larchenhof, which hosted the event in 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2018.

Some great names have won this title, such as Ernie Els, Colin Montgomerie, Thomas Bjorn and Sandy Lyle. Whilst four players have lifted the title twice: America’s Paul Azinger, Thomas Bjorn, Henrik Stenson and Pablo Larrazabal.

Last year we saw Viktor Hovland pick up his first DP World Tour title, finishing a two-shot winner over a fast-finishing Martin Kaymer. As the event returned after a year absence, cancelled in 2020 because of the pandemic.

The Course

Golfclub Munchen Eichenried is a 7284 yard par 72, designed by prolific German architect, Kurt Rossknecht. The course provides many risk/reward opportunities, with two drivable par 4s and all four par 5s reachable. Though there is some teeth in the shape of tricky par 3s, of which three are above 200 yards and a handful of longer par 4s which will demand strong ball-striking, it’s a course you can get at if hitting it well and create plenty of birdie opportunities. An average winning score of -17 over the last six renewals pointing to this.

The tree-lined fairways are of an average width, some generous, some a little tighter, with rough, though not too demanding and well placed bunkers for defence. As well as water coming into play on the back nine on a few holes.

The recently renovated greens (before the 2019 edition) are predominantly large, with mild undulations and relatively easy to find. The main defence here comes from water in-play around a number of the greens, the bunkers are few and far between, whilst also not being too penal. It’s a course that doesn’t really put a huge amount of strain on the short-game.

The course generally suits all, there isn’t an abundance of longer holes to inconvenience shorter hitters in the field, whilst with the reachable par 5s and shorter par 4s, combined with some generous fairways, the bigger hitters can create plenty of scoring opportunities. The keys to success coming down mainly to approach play and catching fire on the greens. Though I do think with the forecasted conditions, the bigger hitters in the field may well feel they have an advantage.

Correlating Courses

Two courses which threw up some of the most plentiful form-ties are out in the Middle East. Abu Dhabi Golf Club, which hosted the Abu Dhabi Championship from 2006-2021 and Emirates Golf Club, host of the Dubai Desert Classic.

In Abu Dhabi we find Pablo Larrazabal, Martin Kaymer and Lee Westwood as winners at both courses. Whilst Henrik Stenson also possesses a strong record at both events, winning in Germany and has been runner-up multiple times in Abu Dhabi. Other form-ties found from players such as Bernd Wiesberger and George Coetzee.

We don’t have to go far to find form-ties between Dubai and here in Eichenried, as this year’s 1-2 in Dubai, Viktor Hovland and Richard Bland have both finished in the same positions here in Germany. Hovland winning last year and Bland 2nd in 2019. Ernie Els and Thomas Bjorn both found success in Dubai in the early noughties and have won in Germany, whilst Henrik Stenson ties it in again, as a past champion in Dubai. 

Dom Pedro Victoria Course in Vilamoura, host of the Portugal Masters is a watery resort course where strong ball-strikers usually thrive and birdies come by the bucket load.

Lee Westwood has won at both courses, whilst Wiesberger and Coetzee frank the form-ties further, as well as the likes of Rafa Cabrera-Bello, Jorge Campillo and Ross Fisher. Among many more. 

Finally I found it noteworthy how many players went well at Golf Club Milano, host of the Italian Open from 2015-2017, who also have good form here in Germany. Noteworthy seems that event only hosted in Italy for three years.

A similarly flat, tree-lined course, where scoring was very low. Martin Kaymer was 2nd in 2015, whilst in 2017, runners-up Ross Fisher and Kiradech Aphibarnrat both have strong records in Eichenried. George Coetzee, Nacho Elvira and Jorge Campillo amongst players to possess top 10s at both venues.

The Weather

It’s set to be a stormy, wet week in Eichenried, with rain predicted to fall heavily on Wednesday. This carrying on into early Thursday, though it’s set to be dry for most of that first round. If the forecast comes to fruition, this will only be a minor reprieve for the players as thunderstorms are currently forecast for much of the weekend and if this does indeed happen, there’s surely a risk of a weather shortened event. Fingers crossed the forecast clears up a little and the worst doesn’t arrive, either way it’s fair to expect a rain-softened, receptive course being at the mercy of the field this week. 

The Field

Viktor Hovland doesn’t return to defend his title, though we do have the presence of Billy Horschel, winner of last year’s BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth. There’s also the small matter of a number of LIV Golf players in this week’s field, Louis Oosthuizen and Sergio Garcia the most notable who will this week find out their fate as to how the DP World Tour decides to respond to those joining the newly formed golf series.

Selections

Billy Horschel rightfully heads this market at 12/1, a fantastic winner of the Memorial Tournament on the PGA Tour three-weeks ago. He’s entitled to a huge amount of respect despite the US Open missed cut last week, though at 12/1 I’m happy to leave him alone.

We don’t have to drop too far down the betting to find my first pick of the week, as I’m taking Belgium’s Thomas Pieters to win here following a good performance at the US Open last week.

After picking up his 2nd title in the space of three events in Abu Dhabi in his first start of 2022, thanks to a superb all-round performance, Pieters has maintained a solid level of form. He followed that victory with further finishes of 12th and 24th out in the Middle East, then going stateside to play in a quintet of top events over there.

Things got a little trickier here, where he missed three of five cuts, at the Genesis Invitational, PLAYERS Championship and Masters. With 32nd place finish in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and group stage exit in the WGC – Matchplay in between.

He’ll no doubt have been a little disappointed with those efforts, considering the strength of his game before that stint in the U.S. Though I’m inclined to forgive that for a player who hadn’t really played consecutively in such a strong group of events for a few years. 

His form has picked up again in recent starts, as he’s headed back over to the DP World Tour, finishing 9th in the Soudal Open and 10th in the Dutch Open. With much better major performances either side, 71st in the PGA Championship and 27th last week in the US Open, where he drove and putted the ball excellently.

It’s also been notable that over those recent starts, he’s rediscovered that quality in approach that has engineered much of his performances over the last 18 months. Something that went missing in those earlier efforts in the US.

We know what Pieters is all about. Not defined by just being a big-hitter, he’s an excellent all-round player T2G, elite at his best and just needs to find something solid on the greens to perform. Liable to go well on virtually any setup.

We found evidence of this last year, as he had his first try around the course, finishing 29th, with two 4-under 68s in rounds 2 & 3. The putter, the main cause of him not finishing higher up the leaderboard. Along with this he’s a winner in Portugal, picking up that title at the end of last year and has an excellent record in Abu Dhabi, with multiple top 5s and a solid enough record in Dubai.

He’s shown on those recent starts over in Europe how dangerous he is here, indeed if we isolate only his DP World Tour form this year it reads an impressive 1-12-9-10. Take it back even further to the end of last year and it reads 16-1-15-1-12-9-10. He can use his power to take it to these par 5s and short par 4s this week, continuing that fine run of form.

Romain Langasque is a player who has looked close to winning again since the end of last year. Following a strong showing last time out in Sweden, where he produced his best approach performance of the year he can go well this week in Germany. 

His 7th place finish in the Scandinavian Mixed last time out was his 4th top 10 of the year and 7th top 25. These results made possible by a game which has fired on all fronts throughout much of the year.

The undoubted standout area has been in approach, where Langasque sits 12th on the DPWT this season, also ranking 15th for greens-in-reg. This complemented by solid driving, where he ranks 58th and an equally solid short-game, ranking 55th around-the-greens and 71st with the putter. Gaining strokes for the year in every area.

The only thing stopping him from winning has been failing to have all of these areas firing in the same week, with one random area holding him back from week-to-week, though the fact he is showing this all-round quality is a huge positive and you have to believe when he does put it all together in one event, he’s sure to go very close. Hopefully this is the week.

He’s played here twice before, finishing 31st on debut in 2017 and missed the cut in 2019. That first effort coming right at the start of his pro career and the second before he was a DPWT winner. I’m confident he can improve on this record this week now, as a better, more mature golfer and if able to replicate his approach performance last time out, where he ranked 3rd in Sweden, he can go close to a 2nd DPWT title this week.

This year, the hugely talented Haotong Li has looked much more like the player who had the world at his feet a couple of years ago and I’m hoping he can finally turn that encouragement he’s shown for much of the year into a victory this week.

After beating Rory McIlroy to the Dubai Desert Classic, Haotong Li reached a high of 32nd in the world and looked a player with the game to go to the top. After being derailed by the pandemic, he’s finally started to show some signs he’s on his way back this year. 

In eleven starts he’s missed just three cuts and hit the top 10 twice, his best effort a 3rd place finish in the Ras Al Khaimah Championship at the start of February.

Throughout his down period he’d largely shown quality on the greens, something that we’d been accustomed to seeing for much of his early career, this indeed on show this year as he’s the 18th best putter on tour. Perhaps most encouragingly is that his ball-striking is starting to return.

The irons are inconsistent but he’s producing plenty of quality, we saw this last time out in his 18th place finish in the Porsche European Open, where he ranked 5th and ranks 51st for the year overall. The driver, a little more consistent and sees him rank 40th. Whilst I like the fact he’s playing the par 5s well this year, ranking 16th, something that should be important around the gettable ones at this venue. 

He’s making his debut here but he’s a past champion in the Dubai Desert Classic and has a solid record in Portugal. Two courses mentioned above and I believe indicate a player who can go well around this week’s course.

Following a strong start to the year, which saw France’s Matthieu Pavon make his first six cuts on the bounce, including 3rd and 6th place finishes, he hit a bit of a flat-spot in the following weeks. This resulted in him missing three cuts on the bounce in April/May. Though coming back after a near month long break, he’s regained his form, finishing 47th in the Porsche European Open and was 7th last time out in the Scandinavian Mixed, and looks to have the long-game in a good place for another strong performance this week. 

The strength of Pavon’s game this year has come tee-to-green, ranking 22nd, where he’s shown quality in each of those recorded areas. Striking the ball particularly well, ranking 33rd off-the-tee and 40th in approach.

Whilst the driver remained solid during his poor run of form, it was notable how much his approach play dropped off. This has been rectified in those two most recent starts, where he was solid in the Euro Open, stepping up on that in Sweden ranking 8th. This strong tee-to-green game helps him to being one of the better par 5 scorers on tour, ranking 15th and if able to find one of his stronger week’s with the putter, looks an ideal type for this week. 

This was very much something he was able to do here in 2019 as he finished 10th, thanks largely to an excellent putting week. Though that effort is sandwiched between two missed cuts, we can find further confidence as to his chances around this type of test through a runner-up finish in Portugal last year and he’s also gone well in Dubai, finishing 11th in 2020.

This strong driver has been knocking on the door for a few years now, producing many 2nd/3rd place finishes on the tour. Coming here off the back of his best approach performance of the year last time out, he can finally get one over the line this week.

Finally I’m going to finish with Sweden’s Joakim Lagergren. He’s started to show some form in recent starts and possesses a solid record here, as well as some compelling correlating form. 

Barring an 18th place finish in the Dubai Desert Classic at the start of the year, 2022 had been a year to forget for Lagergren. With far more letter than numbers in his form figures.

This all turned around at the Porsche European Open two starts ago, where Lagergren finished 5th and was well in contention during the final round. Following that with a solid 29th in Sweden last time out. 

Lagergren has been putting well for a few years now, something on show all of this season and see’s him rank as the 23rd best putter on tour. Whilst the driver has also looked good over his last five or so starts, it’s the gains he’s made in approach which offers the most encouragement. 

This has been the worst area of his game all season and sees him rank 170th on tour but he’s gained strokes on his last couple of starts, which is not just the first time he’s done that this year, but the first time he’s been able to do so since 2020. Whilst the figures may not be that impressive in isolation, you have to compare it to how poorly he’d been striking his irons this year, before those two starts.

His game has translated to a good record at this course, where he hasn’t missed a cut in four starts and has finished 14th and 21st on his last two attempts. In addition to this he’s finished 3rd in Portugal in the past and also possesses a 3rd place finish at Golf Club Milano in the Italian Open, coming in 2015.

Lagergren is still searching for that second victory on the DPWT after winning the Sicilian Open in 2018. He can take advantage of the likely soft conditions this week and if able to continue the improvement with his approach play, he should fancy his chances of another strong effort in Germany.