Australian Open Men's Final Betting Tips: Best bets for Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev
Posted: 18:26 Friday 26th January 2024
Sunday marks the final day of the Australian Open, with Max Saakyan serving up his best bet for the men's final between Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev.
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Australian Open Men's Final Tip
Jannik Sinner -1.5 set spread
Jannik Sinner has looked electric, dropping just one set in the past two weeks.
The Italian had a pretty tough draw, facing Botic Van de Zandschulp in the opening round and comfortably winning 6-4 7-5 6-3. He then had to face qualifier Jasper De Jong and Sebastian Baez in the following two rounds, dispatching them with ease, dropping only 10 games in six sets.
Tests came in the rounds after, where he faced two Russians in a row, one being Karan Khachanov and the other being Andrey Rublev. Both are very tough opponents, especially in these conditions, but Sinner did what he does best, and provided an excellent display dispatching the two in straight sets.
The real challenge came in the semi finals, where he faced Novak Djokovic. The Serb was going for his eleventh Australian Open title, but lost in Melbourne for the first time since 2018 after the Italian ended his 33-match winning streak in a brilliant four set battle.
When we look at the other side, Daniil Medvedev had a slightly easier draw but struggled in the majority of his matches, winning just once in straight sets.
He had to come back from two sets down twice, against both Emil Ruusuvuori and Alexander Zverev. His four hour and 22-minute semi-final match against the latter was one of the longest matches of the tournament. The Russian somehow managed to come away with the win after being 7-5 6-3 down and needed two tiebreaks for the third and fourth set, before comfortably taking the fifth 6-3.
Medvedev now has a third attempt to win the Australian Open final, after failing in 2021 and 2022 when he lost to Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal respectively.
Medvedev and Sinner have faced each other a total of nine times, with the current record 6-3 to the former. However, Sinner has won the last three matches, two of which have been finals. The Italian has clearly looked the more impressive player out of the two, improving match by match.
The set spread looks like the most value with Sinner -1.5 set spread @ 8/11 my favoured bet for the final. Additionally, it's worth keeping an eye open on the UniBet markets, to see when they release their total minutes prop, which aren't yet available at the time of publication.
Jannik Sinner -1.5 set spread
Australian Open Men's Winner Odds
Novak Djokovic
Win Probability: 40%
Carlos Alcaraz
Win Probability: 29%
Jannik Sinner
Win Probability: 25%
Daniil Medvedev
Win Probability: 13%
Rafael Nadal
Win Probability: 6%
Alexander Zverev
Win Probability: 5%
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Win Probability: 2%
Holger Rune
Win Probability: 2%
Casper Ruud
Win Probability: 2%
Taylor Fritz
Win Probability: 2%
Sebastian Korda
Win Probability: 2%
Ben Shelton
Win Probability: 2%
Alex De Minaur
Win Probability: 2%
Andrey Rublev
Win Probability: 2%
Hubert Hurkacz
Win Probability: 2%
Frances Tiafoe
Win Probability: 2%
Jack Draper
Win Probability: 1%
Felix Auger Aliassime
Win Probability: 1%
Christopher Eubanks
Win Probability: 1%
Cameron Norrie
Win Probability: 1%
Karen Khachanov
Win Probability: 1%
Tommy Paul
Win Probability: 1%
Matteo Berrettini
Win Probability: 1%
Grigor Dimitrov
Win Probability: 1%
Jakub Mensik
Win Probability: 1%
Denis Shapovalov
Win Probability: 1%
Stan Wawrinka
Win Probability: 1%
Borna Coric
Win Probability: 1%
Lorenzo Musetti
Win Probability: 1%
Alexei Popyrin
Win Probability: 1%
Nicolas Jarry
Win Probability: 1%
Joao Fonseca
Win Probability: 1%
Adrian Mannarino
Win Probability: 0%
Each Way Terms
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2
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