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Australian Open 2023 Women's Preview: Iga Swiatek to show why she is number one in the rankings

Assessing the top women's contenders to win the 2023 Australian Open
Assessing the top women's contenders to win the 2023 Australian Open

Most of the top WTA players have already seen a fair bit of action this year but none of those tournaments compare to the first Grand Slam of the year which is the Australian Open. Last year's champion Ashley Barty shocked the tennis world when she retired after winning the Grand Slam in her home country at just 25 years old.

Here are the projected quarter-finals if the seeds are anything to go off.

  • Swiatek vs Gauff
  • Pegula vs Sakkari 
  • Kasatkina vs Garcia 
  • Sabalenka vs Jabeur 

The field looks relatively open for the 2023 Australian Open and as always we’ll look through the betting market and talk you through all the favourites.

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Iga Swiatek

With Barty out of the circuit, one person has been dominating the sport: Iga Swiatek. At the age of 21, she has already won three Grand slams and reached the semi-final here last year before bowing out to Daniella Collins. Swiatek is the rightful number one in women's tennis at the moment and she is by some margin. She has accumulated 11025 ranking points putting her at the top, in second place is Ons Jabeur with 5180. That should show you how dominant she is.

She comes in as the bookmakers favourite for this one but unlike the betting in the Australian Men’s Open, the favourite is not odds on. Swiatek is representing odds of around 21/10 for the Australian Open which may surprise many considering how much better she is than the rest of the WTA tour. She is gradually becoming more and more experienced at the Grand Slam level and she could get one step closer to her career slam with a victory here.

Here is her projected route to the final:

  • R1: Jule Niemeier (68)
  • R2: Camila Osorio (82)
  • R3: Marie Bouzkova (26)
  • R4: Danielle Collins (14)
  • QF: Coco Gauff (7)
  • SF: Jessica Pegula (3)
  • F: Ons Jabeur (2)

It’ll be interesting to see how she fares against some of these but she shouldn’t have much of an issue against any of them. Danielle Collins was the one to end her dreams here last year but I believe that to be very much an off day for the world number one. She has beaten Gauff on numerous occasions and the same with Pegula despite her recent loss to her. The final between Jabeur and Swiatek would be a great spectacle but ultimately I believe Swiatek will come out on top.

Iga Swiatek Australian Open Odds

Odds correct as of 2023-01-27 01:08 Odds subject to change.

Aryna Sabalenka

Sabalenka is a great player no doubt, but unfortunately, her inconsistencies have meant that she is yet to win a Grand Slam or even reach a slam final. She is of course still young at the age of 24 but it’s crazy to think how good she could be if she nailed her consistencies.

Sometimes you never know what you’re going to get. There was a game once where she had to serve underarm because she double-faulted 18 times, over a year she double-faulted 428 times in 55 games, it’s a crazy statistic and one she may laugh off at times but is seriously concerning, you just can’t be giving away free points in the women’s format of a Grand Slam where it remains a best of three.

She is more than capable of beating anyone on her day but it’s hard to rely on that day. She was great during the tour finals where she just fell short in the final against Carolina Garcia. She actually managed to beat Swiatek in the tour finals but I do believe the end of the year was a tough slog for the world number one having played so much tennis. 

In 2022 Sabalenka went 20/15 on the hard court which is, unfortunately, not good enough to be winning a slam. I think at the end of the day, 13/2 is way too short for a player that can self-implode on the day with a flurry of double faults. There are more consistent players that you can back.

Aryna Sabalenka Australian Open Odds

Aryna Sabalenka
WIN PROB: 31%
1
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1/1
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Odds correct as of 2023-01-27 01:08 Odds subject to change.

Australian Open 2023 Men's Odds: Why it's Novak Djokovic's tournament to lose

The tennis season has already begun down under with the Adelaide International kicking things off for many of the top players, the challenger circuit is also underway with many lower-ranked players taking to the clay court in Portugal.…

Others to consider

Similar to the men’s side, after the two big players in the market, it gets a little dicey with multiple players being around the 14/1-20/1 mark. We’ll go through some of them now.

Jessica Pegula is as short as 10/1 with some bookies but the majority are around that 14/1 mark. Pegula is incredibly consistent but is yet to fire on the Grand Slam stage, she has recently proved her worth with a win in the Guadalajara open and a win over Swiatek in the United cup. She has really been solid as of late and seems to have all her fundamentals perfect, she isn’t the standout player but is consistently very good. She has a chance of going far but I worry she doesn’t have the special factor to go all the way

Carolina Garcia is next up and she had a great 2022 winning the tour finals and reaching the semi-final of the US Open and Wimbledon. She was serving great all year and consistently beating some of the top names. If she can carry on from her last season she definitely has a chance to go far and can be a problem for even the best.

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Ons Jabeur was another player who had a decent 2022 but unfortunately fell short in two Grand Slam finals. She is another player similar to Sabalenka, you just don’t know who you’re going to get, she could outplay anyone on her day, but can sometimes lose to someone outside the top 100. She is really good but I worry she is similar to Kyrgios in the way that she beats herself and tries to get too fancy with it.

Some players at bigger prices to look out for are Rybakina, who won Wimbledon last year, and Sakkari who is a very solid player, they’re both available at the 35/1 mark. 

It always feels wrong backing the favourite in such a long tournament but I’m surprised Swiatek is as big as 21/10, I think that’s the best bet along with the two I mentioned above as decent outsiders.

Australian Open Women's Odds

Aryna Sabalenka
WIN PROB: 31%
1
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1/1
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Elena Rybakina
WIN PROB: 38%
1
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Victoria Azarenka
WIN PROB: 20%
Magda Linette
WIN PROB: 8%
1
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7/1
Donna Vekic
WIN PROB: 8%
Odds correct as of 2023-01-27 01:08 Odds subject to change.
Australian Open Odds
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