AT&T Byron Nelson Tips: Five each-way picks for TPC Craig Ranch

The Wells Fargo Championship proved to be a fruitful one with Sungjae Im (25/1) finishing 8th and Tyrrell Hatton (35/1) finishing in a tie for third place, making it two weeks of profit in a row for our golf tipster Jamie Broadhurst.

He's now back with an extensive preview and tips for this week's AT&T Byron Nelson!

AT&T Byron Nelson

Players travel to TPC Craig Ranch in the Dallas suburb of McKinney, Texas, to compete for the AT&T Byron Nelson.

TPC Craig Ranch has only hosted the Byron Nelson twice, in 2021 and 2022, but was also host to two Web.com Tour Championships (now the Korn Ferry Tour Championships) in 2008 and 2012, with a few guys teeing it up this week featuring on those leaderboards.

Let’s see what we face at TPC Craig Ranch...

TPC Craig Ranch

• Par 72, 7414 yards.
• Changed to a Par 71 from a 72 that it was at last year. (Par 5 12th hole has been changed into a Par 4).
• Tom Weiskopf design.
• Zoysia fairways, Bentgrass greens – Same combination as too what was seen at Trinity Forest (former host of the AT&T Byron Nelson).
• 4 x Par 3s – 3 of these over 216 yards!
• 11 x Par 4s – 6 of them over 450 yards.
• 3 x Par 5s – easy holes, all reachable in 2 shots for most, ranging from 547-569 yards.
• Course set around the Rowlett Creek and other surrounding ravines, these could come into play for wayward shots on more than half of the holes here.

All in all, it's an easy and simple layout this week for the players Tee-to-Green and we are realistically staring at another winning total of over -20.

In 2021 and 2022, Driving Accuracy stats and GIR stats were generally much higher than average, with 10 out of the first 12 guys on the leaderboard averaging over 75% GIR in 2021. 

So, wide, easy-to-hit fairways and larger-than-usual greens are the norm here at TPC Craig Ranch and it’ll most likely boil down to how accurate on approach the players are and how well they putt on these surfaces. 

Previous winners

• 2022 – K.H Lee -26 (played at TPC Craig Ranch)
• 2021 - K.H Lee -25 (played at TPC Craig Ranch)
• 2020 – No event (COVID)
• 2019 – Sung Kang -23 (played at Trinity Forest)
• 2018 – Aaron Wise -23 (played at Trinity Forest)

It is sure to be seen as the K.H Lee open for sure since the AT&T Byron Nelson has moved here to TPC Craig Ranch and he has a knack of playing extremely well on TPC golf courses due to their unique layout that makes them stand out from regular courses on Tour.

One thing that TPC courses do, that we see on Tour each year, is yield birdies and reward the best ball strikers of that week, so there may be some credit in looking at previous results of those tournaments on TPC layouts.

Stats to consider @ TPC Craig Ranch

• Strokes Gained: Tee2Green
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Proximity/Greens in Regulation
• Birdie average
• Putting Averages on Bentgrass greens

As I said above, this week is all about Eagle and Birdie conversion rate. Therefore, it is a pure second-shot golf course and a putting contest. 

Looking at the stats of the last two years and especially of those in the top 10s, ball striking needs to be on form.

Most of these guys that finished high on the leaderboard ranked within the top 20 for most strokes gained categories from Tee2Green.

So, choosing a guy that is performing well with their long game week in week out will be high on the list for sure.

Greens are larger than normal here, hence including proximity to the hole and SG: APP in my stats.

Having a high GIR will be helpful of course but if players aren’t finding the greens in the right areas and close to the hole then the chances of them going really low are pretty slim.

Like most weeks I will look into Putting stats, from last year at Craig Ranch and other courses that feature large Bentgrass greens.

Before we go into this week’s field I mentioned that TPC Craig Ranch hosted the 2008 and 2012 Web.Com Tour Championships, notable names that tee’d it up that week are as follows:

2012:

• James Hahn T2
• Adam Hadwin T3
• Morgan Hoffmann T3
• Russ Henley T6
• Luke List T13

2008:

• Marc Leishman T7
• Webb Simpson T11 

At least one of my tips this week will have seen the course before or at least played at Trinity Forest (former course of the Byron Nelson) due to the same grass setups.

The Field

Considering that we are one week away from the second Major Championship of the season in the PGA Championship, looking at the field, we are presented with a reasonably good one which is unusual for the Byron Nelson Championship considering its position on the PGA Tour schedule.

12 players that sit in the Top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings are teeing it up here this week.

They are led by World Number 2 and market favourite this week, Scottie Scheffler, who has opened up in the betting market at a measly 5/1.

He has nine starts on the PGA Tour this calendar year, he has no missed cuts, and has a worst finish of a tie for 12th position at the Genesis Invitational.

Within those nine starts he has two wins at some pretty big events: the Waste Management Phoenix Open and The Players Championship.

Scottie is playing some unbelievable golf right now and who wouldn’t be surprised if he notched up another victory in his native state of Texas.

World Number 10 and another Texan-born golfer in Jordan Spieth was the 9/1 second-favourite but he's had to withdraw due to a wrist injury.

Back-to-back AT&T Byron Nelson winner K.H Lee sits at 25/1 in the market.

A tied 8th finish last week seems like the perfect preparation for him coming back to a place he clearly loves and he has had an ever-consistent season with some good results at tough golf courses. Fair play if you back him this week, but for me the price is way too short.

Outsiders sure do love this event, and at a birdie fest like this, anyone can get hot and shoot incredibly low scores. I will be chancing my luck mostly this week on outsiders to take on the big guys at the top of the market.

My Selections

5 1pt each way selections again this week, all taken with Bet365 at 8 places. Two weeks in a row of good profit, let’s try and make it another!

Taylor Montgomery

• Course Form - DEBUT
• Recent Form – MC-19-MC-22-17

Starting my card at 40/1 this week, I'm starting with this raw rookie who is enjoying his first year on Tour after graduating from the Korn Ferry Tour last year.

The reason I call him raw is that Taylor Montgomery really plays every golf course he faces with no care.

He gives 110% to every shot that he hits, meaning his game does not suit all courses on Tour, therefore he plays his good stuff on courses where winning scores will be -15 and over where errant drives/iron play may not be as punished in the same way as they would be on tighter courses.

A birdie fest this week means that the guys need to make their fair share of putts, Montgomery ranks 1st for Putting Average, 1st for Putts per Round, and 3rd for Strokes Gained: Putting.

Tom Hoge

• Course Form – 17-MC
• Recent Form – 13-MC-MC-T59-3

We haven’t seen Tom Hoge since he and his partner shot a -20 total at the Zurich Classic and finished in a tie for 13th.

17th place here last year was a respectable effort from Hoge considering he missed the cut in 2021.

But he did finish in 3rd place at a TPC course at The Players Championship this year which was mightily impressive in a huge field.

He ranks 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach and Proximity to the hole on Tour so it would be foolish to leave him out of our lineup on a course where he will lean on his irons so heavily!
 

J.J. Spaun

• Course Form – 38-47
• Recent Form – 27-26-MC-22-9

A guy that is enjoying a really consistent season, a former winner in Texas at the 2022 Valero Texas Open and a 3rd place finish at the 2019 AT&T Byron Nelson, although at another golf course but a course with the same grass layout as Craig Ranch. 

39th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 19th for Greens in Regulation are his best efforts so far this season, tied in with a 7th for Scrambling and an 8th for Bogey Avoidance - there is a lot to like about Spaun this week.

Joseph Bramlett 

• Course Form – 7-51
• Recent Form – 40-10-36-MC-MC

Joseph Bramlett has the kind of profile that I am looking for this week.

Long off the tee, consistent with long irons, and always ranks well in his approach numbers.

26th for Strokes Gained: Tee2Green this year, 36th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 21st for Greens in Regulation.

These are great stats for this course and it's a place that won’t really penalise him for his 187th rank for Driving Accuracy.

He impressed when he finished tied for 10th at the Mexico Open two weeks ago at a course that is very much of the same length as Craig Ranch. If he has a better than his average putting week, he will compete, that’s for sure. 

Dylan Wu 100/1

• Course Form – MC
• Recent Form – 21-15-MC-39-16

A golfer that I have not tipped before and not even considered it, but when I looked at the form and the stats on paper, I couldn’t not go for Dylan Wu at a triple-figure price.

He ranks in the Top 90 positions on tour for all Strokes Gained categories, which does not seem much on paper but it does show that Wu does not really have a blinding weakness in his game.

16th for Greens in Regulation this year is his standout stat which is for sure one that I looked for this week. Two positive performances at two scoreable golf courses, I am hoping he can ride the wave he is currently on a bit more!