Argentina vs Samoa Betting Tips: Two predictions for Pool D match

A Rugby World Cup campaign which promised so much for Argentina got off to a shocking start as they crumbled to a comfortable defeat to 14 man England. Los Pumas had been well fancied both for that game and to advance deep into the tournament before a ball was kicked, but now are on a redemption mission as they look to prove to the naysayers that game was a blip and not the norm.

Facing off with them in St Etienne is a Samoa side that got the job done in convincing style against Pool whipping boys Chile last time out. Billy Grimshaw was sweet on Los Pumas before the tournament began and is backing them to bounce back here...

Michael Cheika must have been tempted to wield the axe on plenty of his underperforming Argentinian stars after the debacle they dished up against England, but the veteran Aussie coach has resisted the urge and sticks with a largely similar side as they look to get their first win at the World Cup against Samoa. Despite the odds compilers thinking an Argentinian win is a foregone conclusion, this is actually a clash (in world rankings terms at least) of teams 10 and 11 in World Rugby.

With that being said, I am convinced Argentina are better than what they dished up first time out and will be itching to respond, however I do think the handicap line is wrong and Samoa will run them closer than the odds compilers are estimating. Samoa dominated Chile up front and although Los Pumas' pack is considerably stronger than that of their South American neighbours, I'd still fancy the Pacific Islanders to cause Argentina plenty of problems in the battle for the middle ground.

Another feather in the cap of Samoa's chances of covering the points spread is their dangerous back three in comparison to the pitiful numbers posted by Los Pumas' 11 ,14 and 15 against England. Argentina will improve and I do think they'll win out in the end, but there is certainly enough to merit a decent bet on Samoa +13 here at even money with William Hill and bet365.

Wrapping up on the tipping front I still cannot fully forgive or forget Argentina's wretched attacking performance against England. As such I think Cheika may well instruct his side to simplify their game and win with the forward pack. Samoa are no pushovers but I do rate the Argentine pack when they're on song and one man I want onside to score a five pointer is loose head prop Thomas Gallo.

As I have mentioned numerous times (can you tell I had money on Argentina?) Los Pumas attack was abysmal against England but one man who did look a consistent threat when on the field was Gallo. His stats look strong, relatively speaking compared to some of his underperforming team mates, and I'd expect Argentina to attempt to steamroll Samoa when they get within striking range rather than be expansive which seems beyond them on the evidence of a fortnight ago. At 11/2 I think there is plenty of value in backing Gallo to score in what should be a decent game.

For transparency reasons I will confess I am also backing Gallo first, last and for a brace of tries as I always do when tipping in try scorer markets, but for tipping purposes we will stick with the juicy looking 11/2 for the Pumas prop to crash over the white line.