Andalucia Masters Betting Tips: Jamie Worsley's each-way selections in Spain

Jon Rahm completed history in emphatic fashion last week in the Open de Espana; bettering his -22 winning score in 2019 by 3-strokes, Rahm ran out a 6-shot winner for his 3rd Open de Espana title in four years, equalling the tally of his idol, Seve in swift fashion. 

That kind of demolition job was always on the cards, despite the likes of Matthieu Pavon and Min Woo Lee valiantly trying to stick with him and it’s a week to easily put a line through.

We stay in Spain this week and there won’t be even the slightest sniff of a -25 winning score, as the DPWT heads to 1997 Ryder Cup venue, Valderrama for the Andalucia Masters: the most demanding test on tour, on one of its most iconic courses.

This event first took place from 2010-2011, then following a 6-year hiatus, returned to the schedule in 2017 and has taken place every year since. Though this is not the only event Valderrama has played host to.

It hosted the Open de Espana in 2016; the Volvo Masters in all but five years between 1988 and 2008; as well as the WGC – American Express Championship in 1999 & 2000, with none other than Tiger Woods winning that 1999 renewal.

Tiger not the only huge name to win here, as some of the greatest in European golf history have also tasted success at this storied venue; from the likes of Nick Faldo, Bernhard Langer and Colin Montgomerie lifting the title here in the 80s/90s, to Sergio Garcia completing a hat-trick of victories in 2018.

Reigning US Open champion, Matt Fitzpatrick lifted the trophy last year in a typically tough edition; a score of -6 enough to see the Yorkshireman lift the trophy. This was following on from the most difficult renewal of recent years, as American, John Catlin won in 2020, with +2 enough for the victory in a year heavily impacted by severe winds. 

This difficulty is on show throughout those most recent renewals, with none won with a score lower than -12; including the 2016 Open de Espana, in which Andrew Johnston won with a score of +1.

The Course

Valderrama is the design of renowned American architect Robert Trent Jones, who laid the course out in 1975, returning in the 80s to modify it. It’s a short course, as a par 71 measuring 7028-yards but packs a punch in every aspect.

It feels claustrophobic throughout, with the undulating, doglegging fairways densely populated by trees positioned to feel as though they are impeding you and encroaching on every shot; though despite this, the fairways aren’t actually as brutally difficult to find as the setup makes them seem, with plenty of fairly generous landing areas mixed with the much tighter ones.

However this doesn’t mean you can smash driver about the place, you have to position your ball well off the tee to give yourself the correct angles into these incredibly difficult, firm and small putting surfaces. Stray too far from the fairways and the bunkers, rough and tree-trouble will make it next to impossible to find the green with your next shot.

The aforementioned greens and the areas around them is where the real difficulty on this course lies. Small and severely undulating, typically set up to play firm and protected by run-off areas and swathes of sand; finding them is a task in itself, ranking as the most difficult greens to find on tour, whilst they are also the most difficult on which to scramble around. Hence why a strong short-game has been so important here over the years. 

Real birdie chances are very rare, with all bar 4 holes playing over par last year, three of which are the par 5s. The easiest of these is the 536-yard 17th, though is a true risk/reward hole with danger lurking all over; from water to the front of the large, shallow green and the run-off areas surrounding it; doubles or worse outweighing eagles by twice as much last year and is always the most exciting hole on the course late on a Sunday when the leaders pass through the closing holes.

The Stats

Solid ball-striking is necessary at Valderrama but it is with the short-game that the event will be won and lost.

This was well on show for Matt Fitzpatrick last year, as he hit the ball solid enough but not as good as the two runners-up, Sebastian Soderberg and Min Woo Lee: making up for this with an electric week around-the-greens, ranking 1st and also ranking 1st in scrambling, whilst he made 87% of up and downs from the bunkers.

John Catlin, like Fitzpatrick, had a good week off the tee when winning in 2020 but again was at his best around-the-greens, where he ranked 2nd and was 5th in scrambling.

This theme continues when we go back to 2019, as Christiaan Bezuidenhout ranked 1st around-the-greens and 2nd in scrambling, making 87% of sand saves and complimenting it with an excellent week on the greens, ranking 1st. 

You do need to drive the ball well, as none of those last five winners ranked worse than 22nd off-the-tee when winning, with leaderboards packed with plenty of strong driving performances. Though the very best drivers in the field may find that weapon somewhat diminished here on a course in which it would be folly to try and overpower.

Whilst there is enough evidence to suggest that a simple green finding ability is much more important than high-class approach play around Valderrama; it isn’t a place to go pin seeking; with simply finding the middle of the green on the majority of these holes more than sufficient.

Key stats: SG: Around-the-Greens, Scrambling, Sand Saves, SG: Putting

Secondary Stats: SG: Off-the-tee, Greens-in-Regulation

Correlating Events

My instinct would be to go for other traditional, tree-lined tests but such is the heightened difficulty at Valderrama that I’m not sure it’s quite as simple as that. Instead I’ve tried to match it up to other tests in terms of overall difficulty, particularly those which provide a similar challenge around the greens. 

Trophee Hassan II @ Royal Golf Dar Es Salam

We haven’t played the Trophee Hassan II since 2019 and the event has now been discontinued, though in Royal Golf Dar Es Salam’s Red Course we have another Robert Trent Jones design on a tree-lined, doglegging course which provides a particularly tough challenge on and around-the-greens. This reflected in -9 being the best winning score in the four renewals from 2016-2019.

Julian Suri and Alvaro Quiros both finished 2nd there whilst possessing good records at Valderrama; with Richie Ramsay, Ashley Chesters, David Lipsky and Alexander Bjork strengthening the form-ties.

Dubai Desert Classic @ Emirates GC

As a Middle-Eastern desert course, Emirates GC is more open than Valderrama, though does have a few more tighter tree-lined holes than some other courses in the area and provides a difficult challenge off the tee and around the greens.

Sergio has won there, as has Alvaro Quiros, whilst Christiaan Bezuidenhout has finished runner-up. There’s an abundance of other form-ties here; Mike Lorenzo-Vera, Soren Kjeldsen and Scott Jamieson to name a few. All complimenting strong records at Valderrama, where they’ve gone well multiple times with strong performances in Dubai.

Wales Open @ Celtic Manor

Celtic Manor’s Twenty-Ten course is exposed throughout but always provides a tough challenge, particularly on the severely undulating greens, making the short-game a key asset.

Joost Luiten has won there and possesses an excellent record here, whilst Romain Langasque compliments his good record here, where he’s finished top 20 twice in three visits with a win in Wales. Sami Valimaki has finished 10th and 25th on his two visits to Valderrama and possesses 2nd and 6th place finishes in Wales, with other form-ties on offer from Sebastian Soderberg, John Catlin, Jamie Donaldson and Soren Kjeldsen.

Open de France @ Le Golf National

Le Golf National often provides a serious challenge, particularly around-the-greens, where it is one of the toughest on tour; and off-the-tee, where the thick rough means you must find the fairways.

Guido Migliozzi won there just a few weeks ago and has finished 6th here at Valderrama. James Morrison has twice finished 4th at Valderrama and has a runner-up finish in France, whilst we can find more links on offer from Julian Suri, Mike Lorenzo-Vera and Jamie Donaldson.

Austrian Open @ Diamond CC

Diamond CC is a tough all-round challenge and though more exposed than Valderrama has developed some strong form-ties.

John Catlin has won both events, whilst Joost Luiten; Richie Ramsay, James Morrison, Ashley Chesters and Scott Jamieson providing more ties.

Oman Open @ Al Mouj GC

Finally I’ll finish with Al Mouj GC; a course which may be a typically open, exposed venue for this part of the world but has developed interesting form-ties with Valderrama due to the significant challenge on and around its undulating greens. 

Sami Valimaki and Joost Luiten won two of the three renewals, whilst Richie Ramsay, Scott Jamieson and Ashley Chesters recorded top 10s. Fabrizio Zanotti has a 2nd and 7th there, as well as a 4th here, with Mikko Korhonen and Guido Migliozzi possessing 4th place finishes in Oman.

The Weather

Players will certainly be happy to see the largely calm, warm and sunny conditions forecast this week. Though the wind does kick up a little to a strong breeze on Friday, more than enough to cause problems around here.

The Field

World #10 Matt Fitzpatrick is the headline act this week and returns to defend his title. Ryan Fox is the next best ranked player at #23 and they are joined by South Africa’s Erik Van Rooyen, making his first start anywhere in three months, as well as his first start on the DPWT since the Dubai Desert Classic at the start of the year, returning following a neck injury which forced him out of The Open.

Selections

Market Leaders: Matt Fitzpatrick 11/2, Min Woo Lee 22/1, Ryan Fox 22/1, Rasmus Hojgaard 25/1, Robert MacIntyre 25/1

As expected, reigning champion Matt Fitzpatrick heads the market at 11/2. He’s been in good form since winning the US Open back in June but we will take him on here as the price doesn’t appeal. I’m going to start this week’s selections with one of those leading challengers at the top of the market, Scotland’s Robert MacIntyre.

Robert MacIntyre 25/1 – 1/5 8 places (Bet365) – 2 pts ew

MacIntyre recently became a two-time DP World Tour winner but it was a win that must’ve really felt like his breakthrough. His first title came in a quirky format in Cyprus with no crowds during the covid-hit 2020 season; whereas there in Italy he produced a sensational closing 64 to get himself into a playoff with Matt Fitzpatrick and then take the title in front of a large Italian crowd, also taking the scalp of Rory McIlroy who wasn’t too far behind in 4th. No doubt a win that would’ve batted away any lingering concerns that may have still been floating around despite that win Cyprus.

MacIntyre started this year well but found his form starting to falter during the middle part of the year when he headed stateside for the majors and the odd PGA Tour start.

He started to turn this form around in the Irish Open at the beginning of July, finishing 13th, where the driver showed signs of life following some poor performances in that area in the preceding events.

He then lost that in the Scottish Open and Open Championship, though was able to finish 34th in The Open because of the quality of the rest of his game and since then has been improving with his tee-to-green game. 

This was clear two starts prior to his victory in Italy, where MacIntyre finished 12th in Denmark, ranking 6th in the field T2G; with the putter, which had been his biggest asset at that point of the season letting him down. 

The quality putting returned in Italy, as MacInytre ranked 9th in the field; combined with a similarly impressive T2G performance as in Denmark, once again ranking 6th, he was able to get his rewards. 

MacIntyre has had two further starts since that victory and maintained his form, finishing 8th in the Open de France on his next start and then 20th in the Alfred Dunhill Links two weeks ago, with all areas of his game continuing to fire. 

He’s a player who has made significant improvements with his short-game since he came on tour in 2019; this season he ranks 9th out of the bunkers, 15th in putting and 39th in scrambling, combined with the strong ball-striking of the last couple of months, particularly with the driver, he looks a serious contender this week.

On two previous visits to Valderrama, MacIntyre has recorded solid finishes of 24th and 53rd, on both occasions showing he has the touch around the greens to manage this test. In addition to this he’s twice finished top 10 in Dubai and that 8th in France also bodes well.

MacIntyre is in fine form, rating as the biggest danger to the defending champion this week and can draw on recent experiences to get the better of him once again.

Adrian Meronk 35/1 – 1/5 8 places (Bet365) – 1.5 pts ew

Adrian Meronk made history as the first Polish golfer to win on the DP World Tour in the Irish Open in July; with him starting to show positive signs again in his most recent starts following a small slump in form, he can go well this week.

Meronk was one of the form players on tour in the first half of the year, picking up six top 6 finishes in his first 11 starts, then winning in Ireland on his 13th. 

He followed that with a run of form which reads: MC-42-38-32-MC; but has turned that underwhelming form around on his two most recent starts, finishing 11th in France and then 22nd in the Dunhill Links.

Meronk’s biggest asset is the driver, where he ranks 3rd this season,  combining power with accuracy; however this is very closely followed by the putter where he ranks 5th; with him barely missing a beat in both areas all season.

Though he’s not a natural around-the-greens, he’s been solid over recent starts, gaining strokes in 9/13 and is capable out of the bunkers, ranking top 50, though no doubt a stat helped by his excellent putting. 

Meronk missed the cut here on debut but improved significantly on that last year, finishing 25th, where he was excellent with both aspects of his short-game and wouldn’t have been too far behind if it weren’t for a poor 76 in round two. We can find further encouragement for this type of challenging test in a 4th place finish in Dubai and a 6th in Wales.

Meronk drives and putts for both show and dough, if he can keep up the more solid performances around-the-greens he’s shown over recent months he can improve again on his 25th place finish last year

Adrian Otaegui 50/1 – 1/5 8 places (Bet365) – 1 pt ew

Adrian Otaegui had been in excellent form on the DPWT before an easily forgivable missed cut in the Dunhill Links last time out. With a good record here and a short-game rivalling anyone on tour this season, he looks set to be a major player this week.

Prior to that missed cut in Scotland, Otaegui had finished 3rd in the Hero Open, 13th in the BMW PGA Championship, 25th in the Italian Open and 13th in the Open de France on his four latest starts. 

Over those starts his short-game has been in excellent shape, gaining 2.5 strokes with the putter and 2.6 around-the-greens per round overall. This indicative of his performances this year, which sees Otaegui rank 1st in scrambling, 3rd in sand saves and 6th around-the-greens; whilst 52nd in putting doesn’t tell the story of how well he’s been putting over recent months. 

He compliments this with a solid ball-striking game and though the driver isn’t necessarily a weapon, his accuracy, in which he ranks 8th this season is certainly nothing but a positive here.

This quality short-game and steady ball-striking has seen Otaegui amass a good record at Valderrama, playing here five times and recording finishes of 38-12-MC-17-58. His runner-up finish in Austria gives me added confidence, as does a solid record in France where he’s produced finishes of 7th and 12th.

Otaegui is a three-time DPWT winner and can add title #4 this week, which would no doubt be the biggest of his career, not just as a home game but at this iconic venue. 

Matthew Jordan 75/1 – 1/5 8 places (bet365) – 1 pt ew

Matthew Jordan produced his best finish of the season when 4th in the Made in Himmerland four starts ago; keeping a decent level of form since, I’m taking him to improve on an encouraging 52nd place finish here on debut in 2020 this week.

That finish was enabled by Jordan finding a good ball-striking week, the type that had been missing for too much of this year; along with a strong week on the greens to complement his high-skilled game around-the-greens, where he ranks 30th on the DPWT this season. 

He sustained that quality in putting and off-the-tee in his 23rd place finish at Wentworth next time out and though missing the cut in France, he bounced back with a solid 36th in the Dunhill Links two weeks ago.

Jordan’s 52nd place finish at Valderrama in 2020 is a solid enough first effort for anyone around here, though I think we can upgrade that a little. He opened that event with an 81 to sit eighth-last after round one; though responded brilliantly in round two, firing a 69, the 2nd best round of the day to make the cut; then playing solidly over the weekend in treacherous conditions, looking particularly good on these difficult greens.

That same year, Jordan finished 3rd in Wales and showed his liking for a tough test - the type which calls your short-game into question - when 5th in a blustery Qatar Masters earlier this year; and I’m taking him to draw on these types of results as well as that promising debut effort here in 2020 to go well this week.

Masahiro Kawamura 90/1 – 1/5 8 places (Bet365) – 1 pt ew

Finally I’m going to take Japan’s Masahiro Kawamura. He’s used his strong game around-the-greens and solid ball-striking to go well here at Valderrama on every previous visit and can go well once again if able to put to the back of his mind his last couple of starts.

Those last couple of starts have seen Kawamura withdraw after one round in the Open de France after a poor start and miss the cut in Italy in his start prior; though before that, he’d been in good form, picking up consecutive finishes of: 14-9-22-18 in his previous four starts.

Kawamura excels off-the-tee and around-the-greens, ranking 23rd and 35th on the DPWT this season respectively; whilst he’s not the greatest precision iron player he finds plenty of greens, ranking 37th in GIR and though the putter isn’t his biggest weapon, he was putting well before those two most recent starts, gaining strokes on the greens in 4/5 starts.

As a strong driver and scrambler who hits greens for fun, it’s little surprise to see Kawamura has taken right to Valderrama, the type of tight, tree-lined course that is commonplace in his native Japan. He finished 39th here on debut in 2019, following it with an 8th place finish in 2020 and was 37th here last year. Particularly encouraging has been that for someone who can struggle with the putter, he’s putted well on each of those visits. Also possessing some strong correlating form with a 5th place finish in Wales and a 6th at the Trophee Hassan II.

Kawamura won in Japan in 2013 as a 20-year-old; though not winning since, he’s been impressively consistent since stepping up to the DP World Tour in 2019 and looks a player certainly capable of winning at this level; with his clear affinity for this course I’m taking him to make a serious play at it this week.