3M Open Betting Tips: Five tips for Minnesota including 300/1 shot

The 150th Open Championship was one you won’t forget in a hurry, as the Old Course, with its necessary firm and fast conditions produced another brilliantly entertaining major in a year of such  occasions. 

The week started with a fabulous 64 from Cameron Young in the first round and though Cam Smith equalled that feat in round two to take a two-shot lead into the weekend, the undoubted moment of those first two rounds came from a man who finished near the bottom of the field. As Tiger Woods made a visibly emotional walk up the 18th to the cheers and applause of the crowd for probably his last ever visit to this historied venue, his favourite and one which has given him two Open Championships.

As the two Camerons faltered when paired together in the final group in round three, Rory McIlroy and Norway’s Viktor Hovland raced into a joint-lead, both shooting an excellent 66 and holding a 4 shot lead over the rest of the field heading into the final round.

On a week where we witnessed Tiger’s emotional farewell to St Andrews it seemed perfect that Rory, a friend and in many ways a successor to Woods, would lift the Claret Jug on Sunday evening, for not just his 2nd Open Championship but his first major in 8 years and at the most iconic course in golf on the 150th anniversary of the event. 

This seemingly uniting everyone, not just neutrals and Rory backers but those of us with other runners in the race, in cheering him on.

Unfortunately for Rory, Cameron Smith had other ideas, equalling that sensational round in round two with another 64. This time instead of him and Young dragging each other down as they did in round 3, they kicked each other on in round 4, as the ballsy American shot just one shot shy of Smith’s 64, thanks to a superb eagle on the final hole.

Despite going bogey free and making few mistakes, Rory could never really get anything going on the greens, missing a string of putts for birdies, the lengths of which he’d holed comfortably throughout the week and with life fading out of that final group as Hovland struggled in this position in a major for the first time, it left Smith to pick up the victory and a 25/1 winner for last week’s preview in the process.

Heart-break for Rory but elation for Smith and a thrilling way to sign off what has been a splendid quartet of major championships in 2022.

Now onto this week and with just a handful of events remaining in the 2021/22 PGA Tour season, we head to TPC Twin Cities in Minnesota for the 3M Open. Where aside from picking up a trophy we start to speak about players getting into the top 125 and the FedExCup playoffs, as well as those just hoping to hold onto a PGA Tour card for next season. 

This event is one of the newer on the PGA Tour Schedule, having only staged its inaugural event in 2019, though has produced some excellent finishes in that short time, with leaderboards littered with star names.

The first of those came in 2019, as Matthew Wolff made an incredible eagle on the final hole to beat Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa into 2nd. Winning a PGA Tour title on just his 3rd start as a professional.

Michael Thompson was the victor in 2020, running out a 2-shot winner over Adam Long and last year we saw Cameron Champ continue his feast or famine career, by winning his 3rd PGA Tour title in three years amongst a bunch of MC’s, beating Louis Oosthuizen, Charl Schwartzel and Jhonny Vegas by two strokes.

The event has produced generally low winning scores over these renewals, with Wolff shooting -21 in 2019 and Thompson -19 in 2020. Though last year in windy conditions we saw the toughest renewal of the tournament to date, as -15 was enough to see Champ take the trophy.

The Course

TPC Twin Cities is a 7431 yard par 71, designed by Arnold Palmer with consultation from Tom Lehman. Made up of eleven par 4s, four par 3s and three par 5s.  

The par 4s offer plenty of scoring opportunities, with the two 500+ yard 3rd and 9th holes the most challenging, whilst the par 3s are pretty straightforward and the par 5s not necessarily guaranteed birdie opportunities, with all around the 600 yard mark.

This mildly tree-lined, open and exposed course has generous fairways and large, fast and undulating bentgrass greens. Whilst there is little penalty for missing fairways providing you don’t find one of the many water hazards, which are in-play on around two-thirds of the holes on the course. 

The main defence of the course coming from said water hazards, some heavy bunkering around the greens and the tricky greens themselves, which will be setup to play firm, weather permitting.

The Stats

Ability to handle these greens has proven one of the main keys to success over these three years, with both Cameron Champ last year and Michael Thompson in 2020 ranking as the best putters in the field when winning. In addition to this we find strong putting performances from some of the runners up, Charl Schwartzel the best of them, who ranked 4th last year, whilst Bryson DeChambeau in 2019 ranked 11th and Adam Long in 2020 ranked 18th.

Further to this we find quality approach play of huge importance, as all three winners ranked no worse than 19th. Matthew Wolff ranking the best of them in 2019, when 2nd in the field, whilst Thompson ranked 4th in 2020 and Champ 19th last year. Other strong approach performances coming from Collin Morikawa, who was the best iron player in the field when 2nd in 2019, Louis Oosthuizen, who was 2nd in approach last year and of all the players who have finished in the top 2 in the three years this event has taken place, only one has ranked outside the top 20 in approach for the week.

Zoning in on the types of distances it’s key to be good in approach from, we find approaches from 175-200 yards were by far the most common last year, with over 20% of approach shots in the field coming from this distance, higher than the average on the PGA Tour. It’s an area where Champ and Oosthuizen both excelled last year, ranking 8th and 5 respectively in birdies of better gained from 175-200 yards, whilst Morikawa ranked 3rd in 2019 and Adam Long 7th in 2020.

In addition a strong wedge game should be important, again an area in which you hit more shots from these distances than the tour average. Looking at the < 125 yards distance we find Thompson and Long in 2020 both ranking well, in 1st and 8th. Whilst Wolff ranked 4th in 2019 and Champ 11th last year.

It is very noticeable how many strong, long drivers of the ball have gone well here. With Champ, Wolff and Jhonattan Vegas amongst some of longest hitters around, whilst Bryson may not have been as long as he is now, he was still pretty long. With wide fairways and little trouble for missing them providing you aren’t too erratic, this isn’t surprising.

However, as we saw in 2020 with Michael Thompson and Adam Long leading the field, you don’t have to hit it miles to go well, as they both ranked outside the top 100 in driving distance in 2020. With conditions looking largely dry, warm and with some strong wind about before the start of the event, the course should be firm, which should benefit these shorter hitters and I’m not inclined to put too much emphasis on short or long hitters this week. 

Whilst a good short-game will be needed if missing these greens, as it ranks inside the top 10 of most difficult courses to scramble around, I’m more interested in concentrating on the quality of approach play of the players who do hit these greens and combined with a good putter, these are the areas I’m concentrating heavily on this week.

Key Stats: SG: Approach, SG: Putting, Birdie or Better 175-200 yards, Birdie or Better < 125 yards

Correlating Courses/Events

Shriners Open @ TPC Summerlin

TPC Summerlin is a similarly generous driving course, with large, easy to hit greens that rewards a strong wedge game and which is also difficult to scramble around.

Matthew Wolff has twice finished 2nd there, whilst runner-up to Wolff in 2019, Bryson DeChambeau is a past winner of the Shriners. In addition to this we have Adam Hadwin, who possesses 4th and 6th place finishes at both course, whilst Cameron Tringale, who hasn’t missed a cut here and finished 3rd in 2020, has finished runner-up in the Shriners Open. 

Rocket Mortgage Classic @ Detroit Golf Club

The Rocket Mortgage Classic came onto the PGA Tour Schedule the same year as this week’s 3M Open in 2019 and as well as being a course that is equally generous off-the-tee and into the greens, has developed some strong form-ties with this week’s event.

Bryson DeChambeau reversed the finish on Matthew Wolff from the 2019 3M Open, as he ran out a three-shot winner of the 2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic over Wolff. Hadwin and Tringale both appear again with top 5s at the RMC, whilst Cam Davis and Troy Merritt, who finished 1st and 2nd in Detroit last year each have strong records at the 3M Open.

Travelers Championship @ TPC River Highlands

Though being around 600 yards shorter than TPC Twin Cities, TPC River Highlands ranks very closely in terms of finding fairways and greens, as well as scrambling difficulty. 

Michael Thompson has a top 5 there, whilst there are form-ties on show from the likes of Troy Merritt, Ryan Moore, Ryan Armour and Mark Hubbard.

The American Express @ PGA West

The AmEx takes place in La Quinta, California over three courses with two rounds, including the final round, played at PGA West’s Stadium Course. Fairways and greens are reasonably easy to find and it has a similar level of penalty for missing fairways as TPC Twin Cities.

Adam Long, 2nd here in 2020 is a past champion of The AmEx, as is Jhonny Vegas, whilst Michael Thompson also has a top 5 there. Adam Hadwin has a strong record in the event, with two runner-up finishes and Charles Howell, who was 3rd in the 3M Open in 2020, has recorded a runner-up finish there.

Barbasol Championship @ Keene Trace Golf Club

The Barbasol has long been an alternate field event, attracting a field weaker than the 3M open, though as a generous driving course where greens are easy to find, matches up well with TPC Twin Cities.

Merritt appears amongst the form-ties again, as a past champion at Keene Trace in 2018, with further correlating form on show from Cam Davis, Adam Svensson and Ryan Armour.

Puerto Rico Open @ Grand Reserve Golf Club

Finally another alternate event, the Puerto Rico Open, is played at the long, open Grand Reserve Golf Club and offers a comparable challenge in terms of ball-striking as TPC Twin Cities. 

Tony Finau, 3rd here in 2020 and possessing a good record generally, won in Puerto Rico in 2016. Further form-ties are found from Emiliano Grillo, 3rd at both venues, 2020 champion Thompson, who has a top 10 in Puerto Rico and Wyndham Clark, 5th here in 2019 also has a top 10 in Puerto Rico.

The Weather

As I intimated earlier, the forecast for this week is for hot, largely dry conditions meaning we could get some firm conditions over the opening rounds.

A strong wind arrives on Thursday, though dies down for the next three days and along with some potential rain over the weekend, could make for some receptive, scorable conditions over the final couple of rounds.

Of course, all is open to change before the start of the event. 

The Field

This is a reasonable field from the top end, with Hideki Matsuyama at #14 the top ranked and joined by Tony Finau and Sungjae Im from the world’s top 25. Though there is a lack of depth the further down you go and it has a real open field to it.

Not only looking a good chance for one of the higher ranked players to maybe pick up a first win of the year or in many cases a first PGA Tour victory but also a good opportunity for those lingering around the cut off marks in the FedExCup rankings to propel themselves up that list.

Selections

Tony Finau tops the market at 14/1, followed next by Hideki Matsuyama at 18/1 and Sungjae Im at 20/1. Finau doesn’t win enough to tempt me at that price and whilst you’d be more confident in the ability of Matsuyama and Im to win they’re both coming into this with some poor recent form.

Next we have a trio of youngsters who are going to be a significant presence on the PGA Tour going forward and whilst I like the chances of Maverick McNealy and Sahith Theegala, they’re both passed over in favour of Davis Riley, who has past winning experience in the bag on the Korn Ferry Tour and can step up this week in Minnesota.

We haven’t seen Riley for four weeks, since a 64th place finish at the Travelers Championship. This an underwhelming performance for a player who had been in good form for around 3 months prior to that effort, part of what’s been a strong first season on the PGA Tour.

After gaining a PGA Tour card thanks to two victories on the Korn Ferry Tour 2020/21 season, Riley had a solid but unspectacular start to this year on the PGA Tour, making four of his first six cuts of the year but really sprung into life at the Valspar Championship. Where he finished 2nd, losing out to Sam Burns in a playoff.

He understandably struggled in the couple of events following that disappointing defeat but bounced back to form at the Mexico Open, finishing 5th and has since made his next six cuts on the bounce. Among these finishes he’s recorded a further two top 10s, finishing 4th at Colonial and 9th in the AT&T Byron Nelson, whilst he contended in the PGA Championship at Southern Hills before eventually finishing 13th and produced another solid display in the US Open at Brookline, finishing 31st. A by no means irrelevant 13th at the Memorial squashed in between it all, strong performances on big boy courses highlighting the potential of this lovely elite ball-striking talent.

Despite driving it well, the quality approach play he is capable of wasn’t on show earlier in the year but he’s made serious gains over recent months. Over his last six events, Riley has gained strokes in approach in every one, whilst only losing strokes in 3 out of the 24 individual rounds. This included ranking 3rd in the Charles Schwab Challenge, 6th at the PGA Championship, 7th at the US Open and 10th at the Memorial Tournament. Showing both quality with his wedges and long irons, ranking 32nd in BOB 175-200 yard approach shots and 35th in < 125 yards for the season. 

This with a strong driver, where he’s both long and straight, and ranks 47th this season makes Riley one of the best ball-strikers around over recent months. He combines this with a strong putter, where he’s gained in 6 of his last 7 starts and ranks 73rd for the season.

With those two Korn Ferry Tour wins, which came thanks to strong final rounds in contention, showing he has the winning mentality you need at this level, I think it’s only a matter of time before Riley wins on the PGA Tour and he can take advantage of this depthless field this week.

Taiwan’s C.T Pan has had a super consistent year, missing just 4 cuts in 15 starts. With the quality he possesses in approach combined with the strong run of putting he’s shown over recent months, he can get into the mix this week.

Of those 15 starts, Pan has recorded four top 25 finishes, the best of which is a 9th place finish in the Honda Classic and the most recent was on his last start, when finishing 24th in the John Deere.

Though excelling in approach, ranking 50th on tour this season and gaining strokes in 11 of his last 12 starts, Pan has played solid golf across the board. Ranking 76th around-the-greens, 86th in putting, where he’s gained strokes in 5 of his last 6 starts and 104th off-the-tee is more than respectable for a player lacking a bit of power.

With such solid all-round golf being played, it’s a little surprising he hasn’t produced a few more top 10/contending performances this year. If anything, he’s lacked that little bit of explosiveness in approach or on the greens that it often takes to win, but with everything looking in a good place he only needs to find that little bit extra in one of those areas this week to put himself into contention.

Though Pan hasn’t played here, he does possesses a top 10 in the Travelers Championship, which adds to the confidence and already showing he has the ability to win at this level, when picking up the RBC Heritage in 2019, this one-time #1 amateur can double up on that win this week.

Troy Merritt has had a good year so far. Coming into this week following a 30th place finish in the Scottish Open two weeks ago, where he produced his best four-round approach performance of the year, this excellent putter can improve on a 7th place finish here in 2019.

Merritt’s good year has seen him record two 4th place finishes, at the Texas Open and Pebble Beach Pro-Am, whilst showing general consistency, missing just 5 cuts in 17. 

This form has been largely engineered by the putter, ranking 20th on the PGA Tour this season. This alone wouldn’t be enough for me to take him this week but combined with the recent encouraging approach play, along with his good record here, he made perfect sense. 

That approach performance in Scotland saw Merritt rank 2nd in an elite field and gain strokes in each round, producing not just his best iron performance of this year but his best since the 2019 Memorial Tournament. In addition to this he actually ranks 40th in BOB from < 125 yards, no doubt helped heavily by the putter this year but something, combined with that most recent approach performance it should see him go well this week.

This was on evidence in 2019, when Merritt finished 7th in the 3M Open thanks to a strong week with the putter but also a solid one in approach. He’s followed this with a MC in 2020 and was 39th last year. As a past winner of the Barbasol and possessing a 2nd place finish in the RSM Classic, this test clearly suits his eye.

Merritt hasn’t won since 2018 but has recorded a 2nd place finish in each of the following three seasons. He hasn’t quite managed that yet this year but has been close with those two 4th place finishes and if he can keep up the strong approach play he produced last time out, he could well go one better here. 

Chesson Hadley has started the previous two PGA Tour events as a 33/1 & 40/1 shot. Though not pulling up trees in either of those starts, he hasn’t looked all that far away and coming into another field lacking depth, for all it may be stronger than the previous two, looks a big price at 100/1.

The reason for Hadley arriving at those events at those prices is that in the events prior he’d produced his best performances of the year, following a 5th at the Travelers Championship with 10th at the John Deere Classic. Though not getting into contention in the Barracuda last week, when finishing 31st and at the Barbasol when 68th, both made cuts still represented a huge step up for a player who had recorded more MCs than finishes prior to that this year.

Hadley has putted well in recent starts, something he’s done pretty much all year and ranks 25th on the PGA Tour this season, though the undoubted reason for him achieving these better finishes has been improvements in approach.

In Hadley’s first 10 recorded starts of the year, he lost strokes in every event in approach. This turned around at the Wells Fargo five starts ago and improved in each of his next three starts. Culminating in him ranking as the 3rd best iron player in the field when 10th at the JDC.

He dropped off at the Barbasol, though I’m not concerned and am willing to pass it off as a minor bump in the road, as approach play has arguably been Hadley’s biggest asset since turning pro, shown by him ranking 9th, 30th and 56th  on the PGA Tour from the 2017/18 season to 2019/20. Add this strong putter and recent approved approach to a player who ranks 16th on the PGA Tour in BOB < 125 yards and we find someone who should be suited to this week’s test.

This hasn’t been on show in Hadley’s visits here, where he’s missed two cuts and recorded a finish of 58th. Though I am buoyed by some strong correlating form, where Hadley is a past champion of the Puerto Rico Open, has recorded 4th and 7th place finishes at the Shriners Open and of course his 5th at the Travelers just 5 starts ago.

The win in Puerto Rico remains his solo PGA Tour victory to date though he has recorded multiple 2nd place finishes since, including a 2nd in the Palmetto Championship last year, an event he really ought to have won. At a nice three-figure price this week he’s well worth a shot based on recent form and if we see that combination of strong approach and putting he’s built his career on, he looks a danger.

Finally I’m going to finish with a 300/1 shot, who if showing half of what he’s capable of will make that price look silly by Sunday evening. Cole Hammer is a former #1 amateur who only turned pro a few weeks ago and comes into this event following a best pro performance last week on the Korn Ferry Tour, where he finished 7th after being well in contention going into the final round. 

Hammer’s amateur career contained many highlights, the biggest of which will undoubtedly be his victory in the prestigious Western Amateur, where he beat a certain Davis Riley into 2nd place in the final, enjoying the company of Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson as past champions of the event.

Other notable performances coming from him finishing 3rd that same year in the US Amateur, a win in the 2019 Southern Highlands Collegiate, where he had Collin Morikawa, amongst others in behind and a victory in a super strong field in the Big 12 Men’s Championship last year. A college career really littered with high class performances.

He’d made little waves in the pro ranks, with a 61st place finish in the 2019 Houston Open his only made cut in 7 pro events he played whilst still an amateur. Though following missed cuts in his first two events as a pro, he’s finally started to get things going on his two most recent starts, finishing 37th and 7th on the Korn Ferry Tour.

Little in the way of stats, obviously but there are some things to be gleaned from his few trips to the PGA Tour so far and that’s that Hammer looks a player most at home in approach and on the greens. 

When finishing 61st in Houston in 2019, Hammer excelled in approach, gaining just under a stroke a round. This was on show in MCs at the US Open and Byron Nelson last year, as well as a good putting performance when missing the cut in the 2020 US Open. Further to this, Hammer once again gained strokes on the greens at the Travelers Championship a month or so ago, ranking 20th in round one, then 54th in round two.

Despite his obvious talent, this is still a longshot, but with some incredibly strong amateur form against now proven pro players and possessing a ceiling higher than most players in this field, it’s certainly a longshot worth taking.