Wyndham Championship Betting Tips: Back Brian Harman in North Carolina

It may have been almost a year since he won that long-awaited 2nd PGA Tour title in the Northern Trust last year, but over the last couple of weeks, Tony Finau has proven everybody right that said with his talent, once he got over the line again, more would soon follow.

Over the last two weeks he has scooped up the 3M Open and Rocket Mortgage Classic, winning both events by a combined 8-shots, producing the type of final round performances when in contention that had been missing for much of 2017-2021. With his PGA Tour tally doubled in super quick time, he’ll be brimming with confidence and will be looking to carry over that form to the FedExCup playoffs over the next month. 

We have one final stop before heading to Tennessee and TPC Southwind for the St Jude Championship, the first of those 2021/22 FedEx Cup playoff events. This traditional final pre-playoffs stop takes us to Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina for the Wyndham Championship.

This is an event with a long history on the PGA Tour, having first played host in 1938 and continuing to host on a regular basis until 1976. Then following a 32 year hiatus, the tournament returned to Sedgefield in 2008, in which it has stayed ever since and occupied this important pre-playoffs position on the schedule.

It’s a tournament where low-scoring is often on display, possessing an average winning score of just under -19 since 2008 and in which time the winning score has reached -20 or better on seven occasions.

This was not evident last year in what was the second most difficult renewal of the Wyndham Championship since Sedgefield returned. As Kevin Kisner won a huge six-man playoff, after all players had finished tied on -15 after 72 holes.

As usual, stories will be plentiful this week, as players around and outside the top 125 in the FedExCup rankings not only seek to solidify their place in the playoffs but maintain full PGA Tour status for next season.

The Course

Sedgefield Country Club is a heavily tree-lined par 70, measuring 7131 yards and designed by the legendary Donald Ross. 

There are elevation changes throughout, with the gently rolling, doglegging fairways asking a significant question off-the-tee, where they are predominantly tight and protected by thickish rough and well placed bunkers.

Finding the fairways is a must around here to give you the best chance of attacking these greens. Though they rank as some of the easiest to hit on the PGA Tour, the greens themselves are undulating and typically difficult of a Donald Ross design, ranking as some of the toughest to putt on tour. Which also puts strain on the short-game should you miss, as the course also ranks amongst the toughest in which to scramble around.

All that being said, this is a very fair course. Play well and you’ll find plenty of scoring opportunities, being able to make birdies in bunches; become wayward off-the-tee or play poorly in approach and you’ll soon drop down the leaderboard.

The bounty of scoring opportunities comes in the shape of two par 5s that are gettable for all and 9 of the 12 par 4s being under 450 yards. With a set of tricky par 3s and two 500yd+ par 4s on the back 9 offering up the biggest challenges.

The Stats

There are few courses that play as predictably as this classic design. Year after year the same types turn up and contend, with the same skillset on show from those at the top. You find the fairways, then excel in approach and/or on the greens. One of those rare PGA Tour venues in which accurate ball-striking outweighs the more power-packed modern game.

That isn’t to say bigger hitters can’t go well, as many of these shorter par 4s will allow them to leave the driver in the bag and club down for position off-the-tee but it does mean that they’re effectively relinquishing one of their biggest assets in the process.

Though you need to be accurate off-the-tee here, it really is what you do from there on in which matters most. With each of the last five winners all combining excellence in approach with some strong putting, something on show throughout the runners-up over those last five years too.

Last year we saw Kevin Kisner win with a strong all-round display but one in which he thrived on the greens, ranking 8th and in approach, ranking 12th. Of the five players he beat in that playoff, four ranked inside the top 10 in approach, whilst Branden Grace ranked 3rd on the greens. 

He was preceded by surprise 2020 winner, Jim Herman, who along with some straight hitting off-the-tee was excellent in both approach and putting, ranking 4th and 3rd respectively. An almost identical performance from runner-up, Billy Horschel, who ranked top 5 in driving accuracy, 2nd in putting and 11th in approach. 

That straight hitting was on show again in 2019, as 1st and 2nd finishers, JT Poston and Webb Simpson, ranked 2nd and 1st respectively in driving accuracy. Once again we then saw that added to a combo of high class approach play and putting, with Poston ranking 1st in approach for the week and 13th in putting, whilst Simpson ranked 11th in both approach and putting.

Brandt Snedeker is the only one of the most recent winners who didn’t find many fairways when winning in 2018. Though he excelled in approach, ranking 3rd and ranked 19th on the greens. More accurate hitting on show from the two runners-up there, Webb Simpson and C.T Pan, whilst Pan caught fire with his irons, ranking 2nd and Simpson ranked solidly across the board, ranking top 20 in every SG aspect.

Henrik Stenson took the title in 2017 thanks to a strong, accurate ball-striking display, ranking 3rd for approach and 8th in driving accuracy, combining that with a brilliant putting week, ranking 3rd. He was chased home by Ollie Schniederjans, who again showed high class approach play, ranking 8th and putting, ranking 6th.

Whilst general quality approach play has proven to be hugely important, I think we can zoom in on that a little more and look at players who excel in approach from 150-175 yards, as this ranks as the most common distance of approach shot in this event.

In addition to this with 8 of those scorable par 4s falling in the 400-450 yards category, I see those holes being important in deciding this week’s winner and will also look at players who rank well in par 4 efficiency in that range. 

Key Stats: SG: Approach, SG: Putting, Driving Accuracy, Par 4 Efficiency 400-450 yards, Proximity from 150-175 yards

Correlating Courses

RBC Heritage @ Harbour Town Golf Links

Harbour Town is a similarly tight, old fashioned course that you have to plot your way around rather than overpower.

Strong form-ties are in abundance here, with Brandt Snedeker, Davis Love III, Webb Simpson and Carl Pettersson all possessing victories at both courses. In addition to this, past Wyndham Champions, Kevin Kisner and Si-Woo Kim have finished runner-up at Harbour Town, with JT Poston also possessing a strong record there, with three top 10s.

This is then reversed with past Heritage champions, Branden Grace and CT Pan finishing 2nd in the Wyndham, whilst Ollie Schniederjans and Luke Donald strengthen the ties further, having finished 3rd or better at both courses.

Charles Schwab Challenge @ Colonial Country Club

Whilst the Charles Schwab Challenge is a more difficult ball-striking challenge, it asks similarly tough questions of players when missing greens, whilst also requiring a large portion of approach shots in that 150-175 yard range.

Kevin Kisner is a past champion of both events, as is Sergio Garcia. Whilst Brandt Snedeker and Davis Love III have recorded 2nd place finishes there. In addition to this, two of the runners-up in last year’s Wyndham, Adam Scott and Kevin Na have won at Colonial, with further form-ties found again from Webb Simpson and CT Pan, as well as Freddie Jacobsen and George McNeill. All possessing top 5s or better at both venues.

Sony Open @ Waialae Country Club

The Sony Open at Waialae Country Club is a typically low scoring affair where fairways are tight and punishing when you miss but greens are easy to hit from the fairways. Ranking very closely to Sedgefield in every aspect. With that 150-175 approach range once again featuring heavily.

Kevin Na appears again as a past champion, whilst Carl Pettersson and Davis Love III have both finished runner-up there. With Kevin Kisner, Brandt Snedeker, Webb Simpson and Si-woo Kim all possessing top 5s in the Sony and Jim Herman a top 10. Other form-ties found from Tim Clark, who has finished 2nd at both venues and Ollie Schniederjans, who has finished 7th in Hawaii.

THE PLAYERS Championship @ TPC Sawgrass

The PGA Tour’s flagship event, THE PLAYERS Championship is played at TPC Sawgrass, a course which asks similar questions off-the-tee and puts strain on the short-game should you start missing greens. 

We have a strong list of past champions at both venues, with Henrik Stenson, Si-woo Kim, Webb Simpson, Sergio Garcia and Davis Love III all doing the Wyndham/Players double. Whilst Kevin Kisner has a strong record in THE PLAYERS, finishing 2nd and 4th and Tim Clark also a past champion at Sawgrass.

RSM Classic @ Sea Island Resort

Whilst the RSM Classic is an event in which fairways are easier to find, it compares well to the Wyndham Championship in finding greens, penalty for missing fairways and ability to scramble around the course.

Kevin Kisner provides form-ties again, as a past champion here, as does Webb Simpson who has twice finished 2nd in the RSM. Whilst 2014 Wyndham champion, Camillo Villegas has also finished 2nd. In addition to this, Billy Horschel has finished 2nd at both events, with C.T Pan, Ollie Schniederjans and Arjun Atwal providing further form-ties.  

Shriners Open @ TPC Summerlin

Though the John Deere Classic and Desert Classic can both offer clues, I’m going to finish with the Shriners Open and TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas. Though not as penal off-the-tee, it ranks closely to the Wyndham in GIR and driving accuracy, as well as being a tough course in which to scramble on. 

Ryan Moore and Webb Simpson have won at both venues, whilst Kevin Na is a two-time winner of the Shriners. JT Poston also possessing a top 5 in Vegas.

The Weather

It could be a stormy week in Greensboro, with high temperatures and thunderstorms currently predicted before and throughout the event. I expect the course to be receptive due to the likely rainfall and with only a mild breeze predicted currently, when the players are out on the course, low scoring should be plentiful.

The Field

Though not a great deal from the very top of the world rankings, there’s a field with plenty of depth arriving at Sedgefield Country Club this week. Will Zalatoris is the highest ranked at #14 and is joined by a further 15 from inside the world’s top 50.

No doubt the intrigue this week comes from those around the 125 mark in the FedExCup rankings. Some of the most notable names are Rickie Fowler, who sits just inside at #123 and will be hoping to hold onto that place after missing the playoffs for the first time last year, Matt Wallace a further spot inside at #124, former Masters winner Danny Willett at #127 and three-time PGA Tour winner, Cameron Champ at #130.

Brian Harman 35/1 – 1/5 8 places (Betfred) – 1.5 pts ew

Brian Harman comes into this week off the back of a superb 6th place finish in The Open last time out and with all parts of his game in good condition, as well as possessing some strong results at this course, looks primed to pick up a first PGA Tour title since 2017.

Prior to that 6th at The Open, Harman had been enjoying a strong year, where he’d clocked up a further four top 10 finishes, the best of them a 3rd place finish in The American Express at the start of the year and 5th at the Valspar Championship in March. 

Harman has managed this good year with a game that is ready made for Sedgefield Country Club. Ranking 14th in driving accuracy and 55th in putting, whilst he’s producing more quality rounds with the irons than poor over recent starts. In addition he ranks 40th on tour in par 4 efficiency from 400-450 yards.

This has translated to strong results here in the past, as he finished 3rd in 2013 and was 6th in 2019. Further to this is some strong correlating form, with Harman possessing a 3rd place finish at THE PLAYERS Championship, a 4th in the Sony Open and RSM Classic, with multiple top 10s at Colonial to boot.

We haven’t seen Harman for over two weeks following that hugely encouraging performance in The Open. He should arrive here with plenty of confidence and with a game that matches up well to many who have tasted success here in the past, can add his name to the trophy.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout 50/1 – 1/5 8 places (Betfair) – 1 pt ew

South Africa’s Christiaan Bezuidenhout has had another consistent year. He comes here with some strong recent form, including his best PGA Tour performance to date when 2nd in the John Deere Classic three starts ago and as a straight, steady type who can catch fire with the putter as much as anyone, he looks ready made for the Wyndham Championship.

Though consistent this year, with just the 3 three missed cuts in 17, that 2nd was Bezuidenhout’s first top 10 of the year. With multiple top 25s to his name prior, and then once again when 16th in the Scottish Open two starts ago. The main reason he was able to finally turn those solid performances into a contending one was that it was the first time this year he’d managed to combine a strong all-round ball-striking performance with an excellent week on the greens. Things he’d been doing well all year, but never at the same time.

We see this year-round quality from Bezuidenhout in rankings of 22nd in putting, 49th in driving accuracy and a solid 66th in approach, where he’s improved markedly over recent months. His suitability to this test is enhanced further as he ranks 9th on tour in proximity from 150-175 yards, with a solid 51st in par 4 efficiency from 400-450 yards.

Bezuidenhout made his debut here in 2020, finishing a solid 37th, where he shot three rounds in the 60s, including a 4th best of the day 64 in round two. He has top 20s in both the Sony Open and Charles Schwab Challenge in his handful of attempts at correlating courses, though as mentioned the JDC should work too, so his 2nd there is a huge plus. We can also look to his victory on the DPWT at Valderrama to find evidence of his suitability to a tighter, tree-lined course, for all the difficulty there is substantially harder.

Bezuidenhout has made winning a good habit on the DPWT over recent years. Though not managing to transfer that yet to the PGA Tour, the signs are becoming increasingly more positive and with a favourable setup this week, he can go one better than he managed in the John Deere. 

Adam Svensson 70/1 – 1/5 8 places (Betfred) – 1 pt ew

With three top 10s to his name this year and sitting comfortably inside the top 125 in the FedExCup standings, it has been a really strong return to the PGA Tour for Canada’s Adam Svensson. Possessing a strong approach game, with accuracy off-the-tee and a putter that has been on fire over the last nine starts, he looks ideal for this test and can cap off that strong year with a win this week.

Svensson started the year quickly, picking up two top 10s in his first five starts, when 7th in the Sony Open and 9th in the Honda Classic. Though hitting a flat spot in the middle part of the year, he has come back well over those last nine starts, missing just one cut and producing a best finish of the year when 6th in the Barbasol Championship.

He started the year hitting the ball well, though struggled on the greens for the most part, with his poor run from the end of March to beginning of May coming when his long game also deserted him. 

His poor run has been put right with the return of that quality ball-striking that we saw earlier in the year, where his approach play has been in particularly fine form in recent starts and sees him rank 38th on tour this season. Though this has been combined with a superb run of putting, where he’s gained strokes in eight of his last nine starts. With last week the first time he’d lost strokes on the greens in those nine starts; hopefully nothing but a minor blip.

In addition to the accurate ball-striking and recent upturn in putting, Svensson’s suitability for this course is enhanced further by him ranking 7th in both par 4 efficiency from 400-450 yards and proximity from 150-175.

This means Svensson should fit the course perfectly, something we saw glimpses of in 2019 when he finished 31st on his first and only try at the course, producing an excellent ball-striking performance, ranking 4th in approach and 11th off-the-tee but struggling on the greens. With that 7th in the Sony Open at the start of the year providing further evidence as to his suitability around here.

Svensson is a three time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour, picking up two of those titles last year. We’ve seen his ability to contend on the tour over the course of this year and if able to rediscover the quality in his putting he’d shown in his eight starts prior to last week, he can put up his best result of the year here in Greensboro.

Adam Long 60/1 – 1/5 8 places (William Hill) – 1 pt ew

Adam Long has been in strong form for the best part of three months now, picking up six top 25s in his last ten starts. Arriving here at a course which should suit his straight hitting game and with every area of his game looking in good condition, he can turn those top 25s into a higher finish this week.

Four of the top 25s have come in Long’s last four starts, where he finished 21st  in the Canadian Open, 25th in the Travelers Championship, 13th in the John Deere Classic and 16th in the 3M Open two weeks ago.

The putter has been good all year, as he ranks 19th on tour, with the same being said about the driver, where he’s very accurate, ranking 39th in driving accuracy. The reason for the improved form from his 12th place finish in the RBC Heritage in April has undoubtedly been with the irons, in which he’s gained strokes in six of his last nine starts, including on his latest start, as he ranked 4th in the 3M Open.

This is something he’s often shown over recent years, which makes it all the more surprising that his record in the Wyndham is so underwhelming. As it feels like a course that fits well. He’s missed two cuts and recorded a best of 31st in three starts. With the putter and then the tee-to-green game failing him on both missed cuts. I’m certain he can go much better here, indeed this season he’s recorded a 12th in the Heritage and 16th in the RSM Classic.

Long is everything I’m looking for this week, he’s in good form, with every relevant part of his game firing and a game that should suit the course well. 

Tyler Duncan 125/1 – 1/5 8 places (Betfred) – 1 pt ew

Tyler Duncan fits the profile we’re looking for here and though not in immediate danger at #115 in the FedExCup rankings is not totally safe and will be looking to secure his place in that top 125 with a strong performance this week.

Duncan’s year has been a little inconsistent but there have been plenty of positive performances in there, with three top 15 finishes coming with a 12th in the RBC Heritage, 13th in the Barbasol Championship and 16th in the Charles Schwab Challenge. Though he has too halted that inconsistency over recent starts, making five of his last six cuts. 

His game is one engineered by accurate ball-striking, ranking 10th in driving accuracy and 51st in approach, in which he’s been in particularly good form of late, gaining strokes in eight of his last eleven starts. 

Much like his general form, the putter is inconsistent; capable of lights out putting performances, like gaining 4.1 strokes in the first round of the Barbasol and 3.3 strokes in the third round of last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic, but often following them with a poor round on the greens. Though we are generally seeing a much better and more regular level of quality putting from him now, than earlier in the year.

With his straight hitting, strong iron game and the recent quality seen with the putter, he looks a good fit for this week. Rankings of 15th in par 4 efficiency 400-450 yards and 38th in proximity from 150-175 strengthening his case further.

This has translated to a good record here for Duncan, where he’s made every cut since missing on debut in 2018, a 13th place finish in 2020 his best finish. Most notably putting the greens well on his last two visits. In addition we get a strong correlating form case, as he’s a past champion of the RSM Classic, the scene of his solo PGA Tour victory to date in 2019.

Duncan’s form offers promise. He’s hitting the ball well, producing some quality approach play and with some strong recent putting rounds, as well as those historically good rounds with the club here, looks a lively outsider this week.

Hayden Buckley 150/1 – 1/5 8 places (Betfred) – 1 pt ew

Finally I’ll finish with Hayden Buckley. He’s made the most of his first year on the PGA Tour this year, sitting comfortably inside the top 125 and currently showing his best form of the year with his irons and putter, which has engineered a most consistent run of results in 2021, he has the game to go well this week.

Buckley all but took care of his PGA Tour card in his first three events of the season, which came at the back end of 2021, with him finishing 4th in the Sanderson Farms Championship and 8th in the Shriners Open in his first three starts of the season. 

He then started 2022 showing similar form, finishing 12th in the Sony Open on his first start though then struggled for much of the year. Before a 14th place finish in the US Open six starts ago sparked him into life. Since then, Buckley has made his next five cuts, with finishes of 26th and 24th in the last two weeks.

He’s one of the best drivers on the PGA Tour, ranking 13th this season, combining both accuracy, where he ranks 17th with enough power and has consistently driven the ball well all year, even during his poor runs of form, with every other area of his game predominantly struggling.

This has turned around in recent weeks, which has seen these more improved results, with Buckley gaining strokes in each of his last six starts in approach and 4/6 in putting. Essentially playing his best golf all-round since that hot start to the season.

Buckley hasn’t played here, though he has enough encouraging form at correlating courses. That 8th in the Shriners the best of them and the 12th at the Sony adding to that.

Buckley is not new to winning, having won at both lower levels he’s played at before stepping up to the PGA Tour. I believe he has the talent to win at this level, particularly when he can get the irons to match his strong performances off-the-tee and coming to a course where his accuracy should be a benefit and where his improved iron play and putting should be an asset, he can contend this week.