World Wide Technology Championship Betting Tips: Five each-way picks in Mexico

Another place secured on the PGA Tour last week as Taiwan’s Kevin Yu battled back well from a poor start in the final round to eventually finish 3rd at 90/1. He gave up too much ground to the overnight leaders, Seamus Power and Ben Griffin, as they both started well and sprung clear of the rest, with Griffin twice taking a two shot lead.

Unfortunately the youngster - who has just graduated from the Korn Ferry Tour and was working a regular job 18 months or so ago - folded on the back nine; allowing the more experienced Power to come through and pick up a second PGA Tour title by one stroke over a continually impressive Thomas Detry, both throwing their names into the mix as contenders to be a part of next year’s European Ryder Cup team.

That’s another one down and three more to go for the PGA Tour in 2022. This week we head to El Camaleon GC in Mexico for the World Wide Technology Championship (previously the Mayakoba Classic until 2021), a tournament that initially started off as an alternate event in 2007 and has taken place at this same course every year since.

Norway’s Viktor Hovland has held this title since 2020, winning both the 2020 and 2021 renewals back-to-back, becoming the first two-time winner of the event in the process. Whilst Fred Funk won the inaugural edition in 2007 at the age of 50, putting him in the top 10 oldest winners in PGA Tour history.

His victory there, with a score of -14, tells the story of a course that held it’s own originally, with the following five events all won with a score of -17 or higher. However, since John Huh’s win in 2012, this event has become somewhat of a birdie-fest, with six of the nine most recent winners shooting -20 or lower; the event possessing an average winning score of -20.1 from 2013 onwards; Viktor Hovland setting the tournament record last year, firing -23 to win by four strokes over home favourite, Carlos Ortiz.

With a good field and likely soft conditions, I see little reason why the low scoring won’t continue this year.

The Course

The Greg Norman designed (I know!) El Camaleon is a par 71, measuring a short 7034 yards; consisting of eleven par 4s, four par 3s and three par 5s. It weaves through a variety of surroundings; from the penal mangrove/tree-lined holes; to some more exposed seaside holes, with two par 3s, the 4th and 15th holes, sitting right on Mexico’s east coast and at the mercy of any prevailing winds arriving from the Caribbean Sea/Gulf of Mexico.

The density of danger aside many of the fairways make this place feel tight and though it certainly is in places, there are some wider landing areas and overall it ranks around average on tour in terms of difficulty in finding fairways, though has got a little more challenging over the last three years.

The paspalum greens – the same grass used at the Corales Puntacana and Puerto Rico Open on the PGA Tour, as well as in last year’s PGA Championship at Kiawah Island – are predominantly large; though they are usually receptive meaning they’re not too difficult to find, providing you keep your ball in the fairway.

Additionally, it’s not a venue that puts a huge strain on the short-game, ranking as some of the easiest greens to putt on tour, as well below average in terms of difficulty in scrambling.

Though there is further trouble around the course in the shape of water being in-play on seven holes and some large, deep bunkers; if you keep your ball in-play the scoring opportunities come in abundance. The three par 5s will be reachable in two for most; whilst there is only one par 4 above 470 yards, the 515 yard 16th, which is unsurprisingly the toughest hole on the course, with the rest attackable for the most part; and the par 3s all gettable, providing strong winds don’t play their part on the previously mentioned coastal holes

The Stats

Like last week, we aren’t fortunate enough to have access to more revealing strokes-gained stats from previous years, though again there are still plenty of conclusions to be drawn. 

As with most low-scoring affairs, quality iron play and a hot week on the greens are the primary keys to success. 

It’s tough to take much from the last two years, the events have produced a high-class winner, with Viktor Hovland winning both and boasted the strongest fields in the event’s history, which led to a top of the leaderboard last year that included Justin Thomas and Scottie Scheffler in 3rd and 4th; all strong iron players.

The previous year offers a little more in the way of clues, with some less elite players but who excel in approach, with Aaron Wise and Tom Hoge amongst Hovland’s nearest challengers, whilst Adam Long ticks that box for the quality putter.

This is evidenced further in the previous three years, with Brendon Todd in 2019, Matt Kuchar in 2018 and Patton Kizzire in 2017 all good on the greens – Kuchar and Kizzire also no slouches in approach when enjoying better form.

The likes of Vaughn Taylor in 2019 and Danny Lee in 2018 backing up that strong approach link; Taylor again, along with Richy Werenski in 2018 and Martin Piller in 2017 adding to the list of good putters to go well around here.

Although it’s not an overly tough driving course, nor is it easy and with danger lurking throughout the course you have to find fairways. An ability to drive it accurately has allowed players like Brendon Todd and Matt Kuchar to win, as well as Adam Long and Vaughn Taylor to contend; whilst in recent years we’ve seen the stronger, longer driving types go well very well, with them no doubt able to club down on many holes for position. Therefore, either strength off-the-tee or at least a strong fairway finding ability is a must.

Finally, I feel it also necessary to simply look at players who’ve been racking up birdies so far this season, as well as those who led the stat on tour last year.

Key Stats: SG: Approach, SG: Putting, SG: Off-the-Tee and/or Driving Accuracy, Birdie average

Correlating Courses

Sony Open @ Waialae CC

Waialae is a very close fit to El Camaleon T2G; a short course, where fairways are tight in places, less so in others and where you’re similarly punished for missing fairways, less so for missing greens; another event where low scoring is typically the way, unless weather dictates otherwise.

The form-ties here are as strong as anywhere, with Matt Kuchar, Patton Kizzire, Mark Wilson and Johnson Wagner all lifting the trophy at both venues. Zac Blair has finished 3rd and 6th there to go with a strong record here; others possessing strong form at both courses including, Brian Stuard, Harris English and Charles Howell.

RBC Heritage @ Harbour Town Golf Links

Despite greens being much smaller and harder to find, this tree-lined course matches up closely with El Camaleon in finding fairways, difficulty in finding fairways from off the green and scrambling; enabling it to build up strong form-ties with this week’s venue.

Matt Kuchar, Graeme McDowell, and Brian Gay have all won both events, with a bunch of players: including Brendon Todd – a past winner in Mexico - Si-woo Kim, Emiliano Grillo and Harold Varner possessing good form across both.

Phoenix Open @ TPC Scottsdale

For all it’s a little longer, TPC Scottsdale compares almost identically, statistically, to this week’s venue from a ball-striking point of view.

Mark Wilson won both events, whilst past Phoenix champions, Rickie Fowler and Gary Woodland have each finished runner-up at El Camaleon. Further ties are found from Scott Piercy, Harris English, Carlos Ortiz, and Adam Long, amongst many more.

The American Express @ PGA West

Played over three short courses and always producing low-scoring affairs; The American Express offers fewer complications off-the-tee but is in line with the WWTC in terms of greens hit and chances created/taken.

Adam Long, who has finishes of 2nd and 3rd here is a past winner at PGA West, as is Si-woo Kim. Abraham Ancer has two top 5s there, whilst Scott Piercy and Vaughn Taylor add to the form-ties. 

THE PLAYERS Championship @ TPC Sawgrass

Lastly, I’ll finish with TPC Sawgrass; despite this venue is far more challenging on and around the greens, it is of a relative level of difficulty in ball-striking to El Camaleon, with water a heavy feature. 

Matt Kuchar and Fred Funk have won both; whilst Rickie Fowler and Si-woo Kim have won at Sawgrass, complimenting good records here; Harold Varner and Russell Knox adding strength to the link.

The Weather

There’s plenty of rain around this week, with thunderstorms also predicted at the start of the tournament, though hopefully like last week, that doesn’t transpire. Outside of that, there’s little more than a mild breeze currently forecast and if that’s the case, we should expect this receptive course to once again yield birdies for fun.

The Field 

Scottie Scheffler is the headline act this week, with the world #2 looking to build on a strong performance here last year to regain that top spot in the rankings. He’s joined by #9 Collin Morikawa and #11 Viktor Hovland, looking to pick up a hat-trick of titles in the event.

Further to this, we have Tony Finau and Justin Rose making their seasonal PGA Tour debuts, whilst last week’s Bermuda Championship winner Seamus Power, will look to go back-to-back; and there’s also a rare PGA Tour start for Spain’s Adri Arnaus, returning after making his debut here in 2019, taking up one of the spots reserved for players with Spanish or Mexican heritage.

Selections

Market Leaders: Scottie Scheffler 9/1, Viktor Hovland 11/1, Tony Finau 16/1, Collin Morikawa 18/1, Billy Horschel 20/1, Aaron Wise 20/1, Tom Hoge 25/1

I’m going to go heavily at the top of the market this week. Scottie Scheffler is of little appeal at 9s, despite his good record here, the same goes for Viktor Hovland at 11/1 going for the threepeat. Instead, I’m going to side with two players from that leading bunch, two of the strongest iron players in the field, opening with Collin Morikawa.

Collin Morikawa 16/1 – 1/5 8 places (Bet365) – 2.75 pts ew

Despite finishing in the top 5 twice in his final six starts of last season, there is no doubt that Morikawa was off the boil in that period compared to much of the form he’d shown since turning pro in 2019.

Though a 45th place finish on his first start of this season in the ZOZO Championship appears underwhelming, there were positive signs in his excellent 6-under second round. 

It was more of the same last time out in the CJ Cup two weeks ago; a 29th place finish not doing justice to how sharp his game looked, as Morikawa ranked 6th in the field T2G, let down by a poor putting week. Something we have seen him rectify pretty swiftly and if he were to do so, combined with his T2G play he’d be a serious danger this week.

The main place this confidence comes from is those superb irons, where Morikawa has left most in his wake in the last three years, ranking 2nd, 1st and 3rd in approach on the PGA Tour in the previous three seasons. Though opening with a poor approach round in the CJ Cup, he responded by gaining a field-leading 3.2 strokes in round two and continued to show quality in this area throughout the weekend. 

The putting performance would be a tad off-putting if it were anyone else but he was putting okay at the end of last season and as mentioned, he’s shown an ability to turn around his putting woes pretty swiftly, with five of his six pro victories coming following poor weeks on the greens, then gaining strokes on that next start when winning. 

Combine this with his strong driving game, where Morikawa ranked 36th on tour last season, as well as 29th in driving accuracy, we find a player who should relish El Camaleon; examples of his liking for this type of test found in top 10s at the RBC Heritage and Sony Open.

I’m sure he can come here and win on debut, he’s in that elite band of golfers who can turn up and win just about anywhere on a going week; with that promise offered in his T2G game last time out, Morikawa can finally break his 2022 duck this week in Mexico.

Tom Hoge 25/1 – 1/5 8 places (Betfair) – 1.75 pts ew

Tom Hoge has had a fantastic start to the new season, playing just about as well as anyone. Particularly excelling with his irons and also finding form on the greens, he can get rewards for that strong start this week and pick up his second PGA Tour title of the year.

After a good start to the year, that saw Hoge win for the first time on tour at Pebble Beach, he struggled to find consistency thereafter. Although, there were positive signs over the closing weeks of the 2021/22 season, as he recorded two top 10s in his final four starts.

Jump ahead to the new season and he has carried that form over, finishing 12th, 4th, 9th, and 13th in his last four starts; finishes he’s achieved by producing some scintillating approach play.

He ranked a strong 10th in approach when 12th in the Fortinet Championship, though has stepped this up a notch since, ranking 2nd in approach when finishing 4th in the Shriners Open and ranked 4th last time out, when 13th in the CJ Cup. This means he effectively ranks 2nd on the PGA Tour so far in this early part of the season, in keeping with the excellence he showed in this area last season, where he ranked 11th.

In addition, he’s been putting well, gaining strokes in three of his four starts this season, and whilst not the strongest driver on tour, he’s been finding plenty of fairways, no bad thing around here.

This represents a good profile for this test, something we saw when he was 3rd here in 2020 and which we find further when taking into account his 2nd and 6th place finishes in The American Express, as well as a 3rd in the Sony Open.

If able to keep up the level of golf he’s shown over these last couple of months he’d be sure to go close this week.

Brian Harman signed off the previous season in good form and continued it into the new season - where the ball-striking and putting have both shone in his two starts - this straight, steady type can pick up an overdue first PGA Tour title in five years.

Harman has actually shown good form all year; a 3rd place finish in the AmEx on his second start of 2022 a fine example, with a top 5 in the Valspar providing further proof. He went on to pick up another four top 10s, three of them coming in his last seven events of the season.

His undoubted best performance came when 3rd in the St Jude Championship, which ultimately gave him the platform to be able to make it to East Lake for the Tour Championship in Georgia for the first time since 2017, which would’ve been a big moment for the former Georgia Bulldog.

Harman defied a lengthy six-week absence to finish 15th in the Shriners Open four weeks ago; before finishing 23rd two weeks ago in the CJ Cup. Both times he’s produced quality off-the-tee and in approach, matching it with his reliably strong putter, a recipe that should result in a good performance here.

This hasn’t really been the case in Harman’s previous visits to El Camaleon, where he has only finished in the top 30 twice in eight visits. However I’m buoyed by his strong record in the AmEx, where he’s finished 3rd on two occasions: a 3rd in THE PLAYERS and 4th in the Sony Open giving extra confidence in his ability to perform around this setup.

It’s been five years since Harman first won on tour but with his game in a good place right now, carrying over the momentum from his strong finish to last season, he can finally add PGA Tour title #3 this week. 

Andrew Putnam is another player who has started this season in fine form and can rely on the quality of his putting, as well as what he’s been showing in approach so far this season to put right the poor record he has here. 

Much like Harman, Putnam showed hugely encouraging signs towards the end of last season, as he recorded finishes of 11th, 27th, 5th and 23rd in his final four starts, which he has then been able to carry over into this season, making all five cuts and going close when 2nd in the ZOZO Championship two starts ago.

Throughout this period, Putnam has shown quality in every area, though it’s with the irons and putter that is the most eye-catching, ranking 26th and 48th in this early part of the season respectively, having gained strokes in both areas on every start. Whilst he’s continued to find accuracy off the tee, something he showed last season when ranking 36th in driving accuracy. 

He’s finished runner-up in the Sony, as well as possessing top 10s in the Phoenix and the AmEx; with this it’s surprising he has such a poor record here, having recorded finishes of 62nd, MC, MC, 64th on his four visits.

However he hasn’t always been the most accurate off-the-tee, something he seems to have sorted now, whilst he’s currently hitting his irons as well as he ever has; with the better ball-striking shape his game is in, I’m hoping he can produce a significantly improved result this week.

I was very tempted to give Kevin Yu another go this week and would not put anyone off at 125/1, though I feel his biggest weapon, the driver, is slightly negated here and instead I’m going to sign off with the equally talented Justin Suh, who finally showed something on his latest start; having previously disappointed so far this season, arriving on the tour with big expectations following an excellent season on the Korn Ferry Tour.

That terrific season on the KFT saw Justin Suh record sixteen top 20s in twenty-four starts, turning four of them into top 5s, before winning on his last start of the season in the Korn Ferry Tour Championship.

With that I expected him to get off to a flying start on the PGA Tour but it hasn’t turned out that way, as he missed his first three cuts with little in the way of positives. Though last time out we saw a significant upturn in performance, as he finished 29th in the CJ Cup, hitting the ball particularly well, ranking 15th in approach and 18th off-the-tee.

This is far more what we anticipated from the talented former #1 amateur, who ranked 5th in GIR, 5th in putting, 7th in total driving, and 21st in scrambling on the Korn Ferry Tour last season, showing little in the way of weaknesses within his skillset.

Any replication of that type of performance should see Suh handle Mayakoba on his first try and mean we finally get to see what one of the predicted stars of this latest batch of graduates truly has to offer.