Wolves vs Southampton Odds: In-form Broja backed to unlock home side’s defence

Two teams brimming with recent optimism clash at Molineux on Saturday afternoon. Fresh off their first win at Old Trafford in 42 years and a comfortable FA Cup win, Wolves host a Southampton side who thumped Brentford during the week. Below we pluck out two bets for the 3pm clash.

Wolves are up in 8th thanks to an impressive defensive record, having conceded just 14 goals this season. They’ve only managed to score 14 down the other end - ranked 19th in the Goals For table - as boss Bruno Lage attempts to find a formula to make his side more potent in front of goal. His side showered a whopping 19 shots to Man Utd’s nine last week, eventually making the breakthrough nine minutes from time in a 1-0 win.

The West Midlands side have registered seven points from their last three league games, then over the weekend secured a 3-0 win at home to Sheffield United in the FA Cup. So confidence is high.

Wolves welcome an improving Southampton side who have lost just once in their last eight games in all competitions. This includes a fantastic win away to West Ham, an impressive draw with 10 men against Spurs, then Tuesday’s 4-1 victory at home to Brentford. As a result they’ve moved up to 11th and within four points of Saturday’s opponents.

The summer departure of Danny Ings left a colossal void in Southampton’s attack. Adam Armstrong was recruited from the Championship but has so far been unable to bring his scoring boots with him.

Instead it’s another summer signing, Armando Broja (on-loan from Chelsea), who has found his sparkle in-front of goal, with three goals in his last five league starts including a strike in the mid-week demolition of Brentford.

The 20-year-old is athletic, composed, and brimming with confidence. He has an exciting future ahead of him and so far this term boasts a superior minutes-per-goal league record (159) than the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo (162), Son Heung-Min (186), Sadio Mané (214), and Michail Antonio (219), while he represents a snip at £5.3m for your Fantasy Football team.

Wolves’ defence has conceded just 14 goals so far this season - second slimmest to Man City - but their Expected Goals Conceded is far higher at 23.7, and given that they are likely to play with more attacking impetus and freedom at home to Southampton, we think the visitors can find a way through at the other end. 

Scoring hasn’t exactly been a problem for the Saints of late. They’ve  bagged 13 goals in their last five league and cup games; scoring 2+ in four of those encounters. The other was a 1-1 draw against Spurs, in which they had 10 men for the majority of the match.

On Saturday, we are backing the in-form Broja to unlock Wolves’ resolute backline to enhance his recent goalscoring record. The Albanian international catches the eye at 7/1 (Bet365) to open the scoring at Molineux, but it’s the 13/5 anytime goalscorer price we like the look of with the same bookie.

Given that Southampton’s team isn’t blessed with goalscorers, you could fancy him at 7/2 to be the away side’s first goalscorer. He’s also available at 6/4 to have 2+ shots on target (Paddy Power).

On a side note, if you’re after an outsider in the shots on target then left-back / wing-back Romain Perraud is a tasty 9/2 - my colleague Antony Eadson successfully tipped up the same bet in Perraud’s last game against Brentford.

No top-flight side has recorded as many draws as Southampton’s nine, four of which have come in their last seven games. They’ve only mustered one win on the road this term but they are capable of the unexpected; from a 3-2 win at West Ham to a goalless draw at Man City who didn’t even register a shot on target until injury time.

Meanwhile, Wolves have drawn three of their last seven matches, and failed to win or score in their last three home games. While performances have been good, they've been far from ruthless when it comes to findind the back of the net.

This fixture hasn’t been particularly fruitful for the home team with the last six meetings producing four away wins and two draws. On top of that the last two Premier League clashes between the sides at Molineux have ended 1-1.

With goals at a premium in Wolves games, and Southampton the draw specialists, we’re backing the points to be shared at 11/5 (bet365), which you can double up with under 2.5 goals bet at 4.15/1 (also bet365).

As always, please gamble responsibly.