Wednesday Football Tips: Best bets for the Championship tonight
My NAP comes via the Den where Millwall welcome Bournemouth. The visitors will be hoping to bounce back following defeat on Sunday, which was only their second loss of the domestic campaign.
Scott Parker will be without Jordan Zemura, Adam Smith and Junior Stanislas due to injuries, Ben Pearson is also a doubt. Nevertheless, with the likes of Dominic Solanke - the league's second-top goalscorer - Gary Cahill and Philip Billing; I think the Cherries have enough quality to get the job done here.
My next selection comes via Ashton Gate in Bristol City’s game vs Stoke. Nigel Pearson’s have only won one of their last 18 of their last 19 home games, their most recent victory on home soil came against Barnsley recently but they have since failed to build any momentum. The host's supremo could recall Han-Noah Massengo into midfield following the draw in their last game vs Blackburn, however, I fancy the away side to be amongst the goals.
The final selection comes via Oakwell where I think the Tykes central midfielders will struggle to contain this slick Swans side.
Following a shock defeat to Derby on Sunday, Fulham lead Bournemouth at the helm of the division by a point. However, Parker is a process man and I do not think he will do anything drastic here which is why I fancy his side to bounce back. It is worth noting that following their first defeat of the season - at home to Preston North End at the beginning of this month - they thumped Swansea 4-0 in the following game.
Host Millwall’s league position flatters them a little, they may currently sit in 9th but the underlying data suggests that they should be four places lower.
Staggeringly, 361 days separate Tyrese Campbell’s two most recent Championship goals.
During a career blighted by injury, a consistent run of games has been rare for Campbell, however, he has managed to bag 16 goals in his last 47 Championship appearances over the last three seasons. That is a goals per 90 average of 0.51, therefore, his price of 23/10, and an implied probability of 30%, certainly represents value.
After a long layoff with injury this season, he returned to action with a 20 minute cameo in the Potters 1-0 loss to the Cherries over a month ago. In that short period, he had three shots and generated an xG of 0.29.
Since then, he has made four substitute appearances and made his first start in the League Cup against Brentford. Therefore, I think he should finally be in line for his first domestic start of the season and given his record I fancy him to be amongst the goals which is why I’d recommend 1.5pts on this.
Since switching Lancashire for South Yorkshire in the summer, in a move that saw him come across the Pennines from Burnley to Barnsley, Josh Benson has completed 684 minutes of domestic action in the second tier and accumulated four cards. That is an average of 0.53 per 90 and if you were to go off that average alone for this match it would mean he would be priced at odds on for a card.
Obviously there are a few more factors to consider here though, one of which being the referee. David Webb has the whistle for this one and no ref to take charge of ten or more Championship games this season has a higher cards per game average than his 4.33.
As for Russell Martin’s Swansea City, no side in the division has a higher average possession average for the season than their 64.7%. This means that Benson will be spending the majority of the game without the ball, and given the fact that he has a higher fouls per game average (1.4) than he does tackles per game average (0.9), I think he might struggle.
In their last three away games, Swans opposition's central midfielders have attempted 31 tackles between eight of them! Callum O’Hare attempted eight, Gavin Kilkenny attempted nine. It is also worth noting that at least one opposition central midfielder has been booked in 56% of Swansea’s domestic league games this season.
Looks good enough for me, I’ll be having a point on it.
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