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US Politics: 2020 Election to break betting records

Will Donald Trump manage to swindle a second term in the White House?
Will Donald Trump manage to swindle a second term in the White House?

With the Presidential Election now just three months away, betting records look set to be smashed as Donald Trump bids for a second term in the Whitehouse with Joe Biden, Barack Obama’s former vice-president now favourite to become the next man in office.

Already a staggering £55 million has been traded on the Betfair Exchange in the ‘Next President’ market! And again it looks like Donald will have to defy his odds in the political betting markets again if he is to claim a second term.

After being priced at 12/1 after the polls closed in the 2016 election, Trump’s odds tumbled and tumbled and tumbled as results came in, with him going odds-on when the Republicans won the Georgia electoral vote.

That night was not just historic for Donald, but also for Betfair as the 2016 ‘Next President’ market, became the most traded political or sporting event ever with £200 million traded. It’s also worth noting that £75 million of that came in after the polls had closed across the pond.

At the time of writing Trump is currently trading around the 2.6 (8/5) mark on the Betfair Exchange after being matched as short as 1.64 pre Coronavirus. After suggesting we may all need to inject ourselves with disinfectant it’s fair to say that old Donald has not really dealt with the crisis too well, and we’ve seen a swing in the betting and Trump drift out to odds-against.

For the Democrats, Joe Biden is now just 1.02 (1/50) to be the Democratic nominee to try and haul Trump from his position in Washington. He looks nailed on to be the opposition nominee and has been taking lots of support in the overall ‘Next President’ market.

Back in March Biden’s odds were hovering around the 4.0 mark (3/1). But since then due to market support we’ve seen him come in all the way into favourite with all bookmakers and on the Betfair Exchange where he’s now trading at 1.73 (8/11) to become President at the age of 77.

Some Biden backers will be hoping the election follows the narrative of the odds in this one, with Biden actually being matched at 100.0 (99/1) on the Exchange. This could prove profitable for many, but it will not break the record of one punter who claimed the biggest individual winner on the Betfair Exchange in the 2016 Election. The bettor in question, scooped over £2 million after first backing Trump in the primaries. 

There’s still three months to go until this year’s election but with over £55 million already traded on the ‘Next President’ market with Betfair, and up to potentially 50% of volume coming in after the polls have closed, the market is well on track to break the record of the most money traded on a political or sporting event. 

£78 has been traded on Joe Biden at 100.0 (99/1) (source: betfair)
£78 has been traded on Joe Biden at 100.0 (99/1) (source: betfair)
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