US Masters 2023 Betting Tips: Xander Schauffele leads our Augusta picks

The first major of the PGA Tour season is upon us, The Masters. The best week in the golfing calendar and by far the most anticipated of the year. The Rolls-Royce of Golf for punters and our man Jamie Broadhurst is on hand with his best bets. 

Players will travel to the area of Augusta, Georgia where they will compete for the Masters at Augusta National Golf Club. 

Augusta National was founded/designed in 1933 by Alister Mackenzie and Bobby Jones and The Masters has been held here ever since 1934 when Horton Smith was the first winner. 

Let's have a look to see what the players face this week;

Augusta National GC

• Par 72, 7545 yards
• 4 x Par 3s – 155-240 yards
• 10 x Par 4s – 350-520 yards
• 4 x Par 5s – 545-575 yards
• Dr. Alister Mackenzie/Bobby Jones design – 2021/22 course alterations
• Ryegrass fairways/Rough, Bentgrass greens
• Tree lined fairways
• Massive, sloping greens
• Sub Air system under the green complexes

A lot to take in this week at Augusta as always, not only with the hole changes that have happened in the last two years and how that will affect the course but predicting where the players need to attack and where they’ll need to grind their pars out will be key in choosing our lineup for this week.

The fairways are tree lined, driving will be at a premium all week to maximise scoring opportunities as the rough that lurks off these fairways can be penal. Classically, the fairway grass is mowed towards the tee boxes, meaning driving distance is harder to produce than normal weeks on Tour as the ball will not bounce as far as players hit into the grain of the grass. Meaning, even though the course is at 7545 yards on paper, it can actually play more like a 7800/7900 yard course. 

The greens are severely larger than the average that we see week in week out, the players will have to constantly find them in the right areas to avoid dropping shots. Beneath these greens is a Sub-Air system that organizers can use to control how much moisture are in the greens at any given stage, and come the weekend, large sloping greens mixed with the very fast Bentgrass greens is a recipe for disaster for those that aren’t confident putters or those who haven’t seen these greens before. 

The runoff areas around the greens have fairways length grass on them, meaning players are constantly in 2 minds whether to chip or putt their ball if they find themselves around the green surfaces, so decision making this week will have to be clear for the players and their caddies.

2021/22 changes made at Augusta National GC

Straight after the 2021 Masters finished, work started on Augusta National providing it with several alterations to make it tougher but more rewarding for the players.

The 11th hole was extended by 15 yards in length, with the tee box moved to the left, fairway widened and trees removed/cut back down the right-hand side. This means this par 4 now measures a massive 520 yards. A real brute of a hole which proved tricky for the players to break par on last year.

Holes 9 and 10 have had the first cut of rough shortened, meaning the fairways have slightly got wider.

The 15th hole saw its fairway completely re-laid/re-contoured, extending it by 20 yards.

And lastly, new greens surfaces were laid on holes 3, 13 and 17.

These changes however, were all done and seen for the first time at the 2022 version of The Masters. Since last year, there have been small changes as ever over the course, with the main ones coming on the Par 5 13th hole. Removal of Azalea trees on both sides of the hole will reduce an element of risk for the guys but will certainly not eliminate it on the tough hole. A new tee box has been built at the start of the hole, extending it by an extra 35 yards, so maybe we will see a fewer number of guys going for this well guarded green in 2 this year.

So, this year the same as last, the players will see some slight alterations to what they are used to normally at Augusta.

Previous winners and their Performance Stats

No strokes gained data recorded here in the past years unfortunately, but there are still some stats to delve into.

2022 Winner – Scottie Scheffler -10
16th Driving Distance
8th Driving Accuracy
5th Greens in Regulation
2nd Scrambling
4th Putting Average
3rd Par 3 Birdie or Better
3rd Par 4 Birdie or Better
1st Par 5 Birdie or Better

2021 Winner – Hideki Matsuyama -10
40th Driving Distance
37th Driving Accuracy
7th Greens in Regulation
2nd Scrambling
17th Putting Average
22nd Par 3 Birdie or Better
2nd Par 4 Birdie or Better
10th Par 5 Birdie or Better

2020 Winner (November Masters) – Dustin Johnson -20
6th Driving Distance
13th Driving Accuracy
1st Greens in Regulation
4th Scrambling
8th Putting Average
3rd Par 3 Birdie or Better
1st Par 4 Birdie or Better
8th Par 5 Birdie or Better

2019 Winner – Tiger Woods -13
42nd Driving Distance
29th Driving Accuracy
1st Greens in Regulation
50th Scrambling
14th Putting Average
2nd Par 3 Birdie or Better
7th Par 4 Birdie or Better
17th Par 5 Birdie or Better

2018 Winner – Patrick Reed -15
6th Driving Distance
13th Driving Accuracy
21st Greens in Regulation
15th Scrambling
1st Putting Average
37th Par 3 Birdie or Better
1st Par 4 Birdie or Better
2nd Par 5 Birdie or Better

2017 Winner – Sergio Garcia -9 (Playoff win over Justin Rose)
6th Driving Distance
2nd Driving Accuracy
2nd Greens in Regulation
6th Scrambling
12th Putting Average
42nd Par 3 Birdie or Better
1st Par 4 Birdie or Better
25th Par 5 Birdie or Better

Averages for the last 6 winners – Score -13
19th Driving Distance
17th Driving Accuracy
6th Greens in Regulation
13th Scrambling
9th Putting Average
18th Par 3 Birdie or Better
3rd Par 4 Birdie or Better
11th Par 5 Birdie or Better

Stats to consider

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
• Greens in Regulation/Strokes Gained: Approach/Proximity to the hole
• Scrambling
• Putting Average
• Par 4 performance

A few words on each stat – 

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee – even though this is never measured at The Masters, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee stats on Tour takes into consideration both distance and accuracy, both have been vital at Augusta so we will start with a look at that. A more of a lean towards distance off the tee however will be the case this year.
• Greens in Regulation/Strokes Gained: Approach/Proximity to the hole – Opportunities will be hard to come by this week and is always the same on Masters week. Hitting the greens in regulation has always been a key here and will be the same this week (average of 6th in the last 6 winners), so a look at the season's Greens In Regulation stats will go a miss. Proximity to the hole will also be key, along with hitting these greens in the right areas as they are so large.
• This may seem juxtaposing putting up both Greens In Regulation and Scrambling but players will find themselves scrambling and grafting for their pars this week, so a look into the best scramblers in the game/best bogey avoiders.
• Putting Average – getting used to these greens won’t be easy and especially when they play fast, a good experience will be a great help this week for the players.
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Percentage – In years gone by I have focused up more on the Par 5 scoring element when building my lineups. These are still important holes as players can become unstuck on them, so taking care of them is still crucial. However, this year I will factor in Par 4 performance more into the frame. An average of 3rd on the leaderboard for the last 6 winners is a staggering statistic to pull out.

Weather

I wouldn’t choose to insert a section every week around the weather for the upcoming event. However, this week it looks as though the weather could play a solid part in both the scoring and how the week fares.

Thursday – Small chance of Thunderstorms with a progressive chance of rain the further through the day you go. Rain is only set to be light however.

Friday – A 50% or greater chance of heavier rain throughout the day with a hurting 10-15 mph wind.

Saturday – A ton of rain forecast throughout Friday night into Saturday morning, with a constant high chance of the rain continuing throughout the day.

Sunday – A drier day but still a 40-50% chance of light rain most of the day.

As you can see, a pretty bleak week is forecasted at the moment… with a potential draw bias coming into play with probable delays being the theme of the week. The longer the rain falls, the softer the course will get. This means that the yardage will seem longer than ever, and that’ll suit a certain type of player for sure, especially those who can dominate with the driver. 

The hope is that the forecast is wrong, and this week just doesn’t turn into a drive, chip and a putt show. But, as I am writing this on Monday with 3 days still to go before it starts, anything could happen!

The Field

88 players are entered into this week’s Masters field, those 88 got into the field by either; being a past Masters champion, being a PGA Tour winner since The Masters in 2022, being Top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings or being amongst the best Amateurs in the game. Within these categories, 18 players that went over to the rival LIV Golf Tour tee it up this week, and there are a few with some good form around here!

The big three of; Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm are all here and are all under 10/1 in the betting market. Both Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are joint favourites at 7/1. Both have similar profiles of consistency this year, who both have multiple wins. Scottie is the one however for me out of the two, at the moment he is in formidable form and looks primed to defend his Masters title that he won here last year. For information purposes, Scottie’s form at Augusta reads 19-18-1 and Rory’s form reads 20-MC-15-40-25-8-4-10-7-5-21-5-MC-2. So, Rory has the experience here but always seems to stumble to get the Green Jacket to complete the career Grand Slam of Majors, but Scottie seems to have found the secret around here so that is why I would go with him out of the two favourites. 

Driver is all three of these guys’ best club in the bag and they are consistently good with the putter, so if the weather sticks to the forecast, the course will play long with bombers will be preferred, expect a mighty battle between the trio this week.

Outside of these 3, the next one in the betting market comes at 18/1, by the name of Jordan Speith who I think has a great chance this week, but I will not be betting him to win the Green Jacket for the second time.

This means we have some mightily good value this week Ladies and Gents, especially if you dip into the LIV Tour for example… My picks will dominate the 20/1-50/1 range however, as I really think there are some top players who can cause an upset to the big guys this week, especially with the wet conditions that have been forecast!

Selections

5 each way selections for you this week, all taken with Bet365 that are offering 8 places as they pretty much do every week nowadays. I always advise to do 1pt each way bets. 10pts staked each week across the 5 tips that I give out then. Provides us with a simple formula to track profit/loss throughout the year. I am over 40pts in profit this year so far, so let’s land the winner in the big one! Good luck all.

Xander Schauffele 25/1
Masters Form – 50-2-17-3-MC
Current Form – T5-T19-T39-T33-T10

I have a very toxic relationship backing Xander in big events like this, he always seems to feature for me and usually places might I add. But, I genuinely believe a big win is coming and it could be this week. He has some really consistent recent form tied in with two top 3 finishes at Augusta and in 2019 he very nearly chased Tiger Woods down on the back 9 on Sunday. 20th for Strokes Gained: Tee2Green this season, 9th for Strokes Gained: Approach, 20th for putting, 40th for Greens In Regulation, he has a lot to like. Tie that in with ranking 1st for approaches from 150-175 yards where a lot will lie this week, he looks to be all set to contend come Sunday at The Masters.

Tony Finau 25/1
Master Form – 10-5-38-10-35
Current Form – T17-T19-T24-T20-T14 (Winner of Houston Open in November 2022)

A Little bit like Xander this selection, however Tony has found that formula of ‘how to win’ the past two years, winning multiple times which he was hinting at for years. He is now a model of consistency and that is portrayed here with his Augusta for, registering 3 top 10 finishes in five tries. 25th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 5th for Strokes Gained: Tee2Green, 3rd for Strokes Gained: Approach and 23rd Strokes Gained: Putting. The putter for me is the clear improvement this last season, and that is why he is proving to be a top player now on Tour and one to fear going into this week.

We talk about the weather being bad, we talk about the fairways being mown towards the tee boxes so the fairways won't bounce as far. We want a guy who hits the ball miles and miles in the air. Step forward Viktor Hovland. The young stud doesn’t do much wrong in the slightest, yes his short game has come under the magnifying glass time and time again but I really think it's improving this year as he currently lies 29th for scrambling! Viktor ranks 8th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 29th for Strokes Gained: Approach, 15th for Strokes Gained: T2G and 38th for proximity to the hole. His rank of 55th for Greens In Regulation this year doesn’t do his iron play much justice at all because he is top class in that department. Another last stat that stood out for me with Viktor this season is that he ranks 1st for ‘Rough Proximity’, meaning that whenever Viktor finds himself in the rough, he is the best on Tour in getting the ball closest to the hole from said rough… impressive right? He looks nailed to go well this week with a lot going for him and especially not missing a cut at Augusta in three attempts to date.

Sungjae Im 35/1
Masters Form – 2-MC-8
Recent Form – T17-T6-T21-T42-T56-T6-T4

Sungjae has featured on both my cards when he finished 2nd and 8th here last year and 2020. There are not many more guys that work harder or play more tournaments a year than this guy, he really works hard on his game and the results show with the amount of cuts/top 10s he registers. And, after an impressive  6th place at The Players Championships 2 weeks back, his place on my lineup was secured. Whereas the other guys on my card can be explosive and be streaky, Sungjae Im is a steady golfer who kills his competitors with the ability to minimize mistakes, hence why his fit here at Augusta is perfect. 15th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 13th for Strokes Gained: Tee2Greens, 17th Scrambling, 30th Strokes Gained: Putting and 26th for Driving Accuracy just shows that there isn’t many improvements to be had in his game that’s for sure.

Keith Mitchell 110/1
Masters Form – 43
Recent Form – T52-T35-T24-5-T4

The outside selection of the five tips, but not one that doesn’t come without talent. Keith has developed a knack of playing well on tough golf courses. A 5th place at Riviera GC for the Genesis Invitational showed us this where he led most of the way just to fall away at the end. He drives it really well and that’s where he gains his strokes on his competitors, 7th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 15th for Driving Accuracy. He ranks 1st for the total driving stats, that takes into account distance and accuracy. He is streaky with his approach and putter but that’s what you get for a triple figure priced guy. A former graduate from the University of Georgia which is located a mere two hours from Augusta National, he has only competed here once in The Masters but I am sure that’s not his only visit here down Magnolia Lane.