Steyn City Championship Betting Tips: Six selections from South Africa

The DP World Tour concludes its short stay in South Africa this week, at the highly regarded The Club at Steyn City, for the Steyn City Championship. We’re in familiar territory as last week, with another long, wide course with all the hallmarks of a Jack Nicklaus design.

Course

Having opened in 2015, this is a course still very much in its infancy and such, there isn’t a great deal of history to go off. Though it did host the Steyn City Team Championship on the Sunshine Tour in 2018. Won by the duo of Hennie Du Plessis and Jean Hugo, shooting a score of -23 over three varying rounds of team golf.

What we do know about this is course is that it is the centrepiece of the lavish Steyn City Parkland residence, and the course was very much designed to match up to its surroundings. Being described by the Commissioner of the Sunshine Tour as “South Africa’s answer to Augusta.” It is already highly rated within South Africa and that adulation is expected to rise as the course continues to mature.

The course is a par 72 and a huge 7716 yards, though that is negated slightly as we’re once again at altitude. Everything I read about the course said, much like last week, that fairways are generous. Though unlike last week’s predominantly flat layout, there are elevation changes here throughout the course and it certainly looks a more interesting, difficult test. 

Water is in-play throughout, this on evidence on a brutally long 515 yard par 4 closing hole, with water protecting the left hand side of the green. Lots of clever bunkering adds further protection to the golf course, whilst the predominantly large, undulating greens are said to be of the highest quality.

It’s very hard to glean anything from that team event on the Sunshine Tour in 2018, throughout the three rounds they played three different formats of team golf. Having said that, it should still pay to look at players who went well there, as at the very least it will mean they’ve had a spin around the track.

Similar to last week I feel strong ball-strikers, preferably those who possess above average power off-the-tee are the way to go. Though it does look a little trickier than last week tee-to-green, so I’m also going to place a little more importance in the short game.

Weather

We could be in for a stormy week at Steyn City. With difficult conditions predicted in the first and final rounds. Plenty of rain is forecast before the start as well, which should soften this course up for those longer hitters and though I expect it to be a little tougher than last week, with a wet course and relatively benign conditions on Friday and Saturday, we could once again see some low numbers during the week.

Field

The field is much the same as last week, as Pablo Larrazabal looks to go back-to-back in South Africa. Dean Burmester is the best ranked played in the field at #74 and he’s once again joined by a plethora of South Africa’s best.

Selections

Not just the best ranked player in the field but Dean Burmester also heads the market at 16/1. He’s followed by the trio that played in the playoff last week at Pecanwood. With the two losers in that playoff, Adri Arnaus and Jordan Smith at 20/1. Whilst last week’s winner, Pablo Larrazabal, is at 22s. 

After taking a swing and a miss at the top of the market last week with Bernd Wiesberger I’ve decided to avoid the top of the market entirely this week, on a course we haven’t seen in tournament play on our TV screens. Instead I start in the 50/1 range with the talented Brandon Stone.

I’ve backed Stone a couple of times this year, generally because of the strength of his long game and he’s continued to show quality there. He particularly ranks strong off-the-tee this year, at 29th on the DP World Tour. Though last week, it was the quality of his approach play that stood out, as he ranked 11th in the field with his irons. This somewhat of a trend over recent starts, as he has played well in approach in three of his last four starts on the DPWT.

The ball-striking form is exactly why Stone has enjoyed a solid, consistent start to the season. His only missed cut came on his penultimate start, in the Sunshine Tour/Challenge Tour co-sanctioned Jonsson Workwear Open. Aside from that he’s played five times and finished no worse than 35th in four of those appearances. 

The reason he’s not quite been able to contend has been that he’s struggled with the short-game. Though did show some positive signs in that regard around-the-greens last week, ranking 16th in the field.

As a big hitter, Stone should enjoy the generosity that he finds on the fairways this week in Steyn City. He’s continually gone well at similar wide, open venues. A victory in the 2018 Scottish Open and a runner-up finish in Portugal amongst a bundle of form at such like courses. 

Stone is a three-time DPWT winner, with two of those victories coming in co-sanctioned events in his native South Africa. He’s always a danger in these events and if continuing to strike the ball like he has for much of this season, only needs to find a little something on the greens to go close this week.

Another player producing some strong iron play of late is England’s Daniel Gavins. After a solid start to this season, which includes a 6th place finish in the Kenya Open two starts ago, I think Gavins has the game to go well this week. 

Since getting his breakthrough victory at the ISPS Handa Invitational in Northern Ireland last year, Gavins has continued to perform well on the DPWT. He followed that with a 6th place finish in the Dunhill Links towards the end of last year and also found an 11th place finish at Valderrama.  

He’s carried that form over into the new year, making four cuts in five starts, with that 6th in Kenya his best effort. Most recently, he finished 35th last week at Pecanwood, though played better than the final finishing position suggests, as he was the 6th best player in the field tee-to-green. A poor week on the greens hindering his progress and stopping him achieving a more lofty position on the leaderboard.

He excelled most in approach and around-the-greens last week, something which has very much been the case since he got that victory in Northern Ireland last year. Though he has started this year driving it well too, whilst also possessing enough power off-the-tee. The putter blows hot and cold but when on a going week he’s more than capable of holing his fair share.

Though he’s excelled most on tighter tracks since stepping up to the DPWT, I believe Gavins does have the game to go well on these more open, forgiving driving courses, that 6th in the Dunhill Links is evidence of that. If he can reproduce the quality he showed tee-to-green last week and find a little something on the greens, he’s playing well enough to get in the mix once again.

After a tough start to the year, Italy’s Francesco Laporta has started to find a bit of form in recent starts, hitting the top 25 in two of his last four events. The most recent of those was an 18th place finish last week, where he drove it solidly and produced some quality on the greens. Though it was the improved approach play that stood out and told me of a player that can go well again this week. 

This improved iron performance only saw Laporta rank 21st for the week but it was actually his best iron display since September last year at Wentworth in the BMW PGA Championship. It was also the only area of his game that had failed to fire at all this year. Usually strong off-the-tee and with the putter, he’s also shown some quality around-the-greens at times this year. Meaning all areas of his game have fired in 2022, though he hasn’t been able to put it altogether at the same time.

The Italian showing up in this part of the world is not a surprise, as he spent much of the earlier part of his career playing between the Sunshine Tour and the European Challenge Tour. Possessing top 5s in Kenya, Zimbabwe and Zambia, to go with a 4th place finish in the Dimension-Date Pro-Am, amongst other top 10s in South Africa.

He also possesses other quality performances at similar venues. The most recent of those was a runner-up finish at the Dubai Championship last year, on a similarly wide, exposed course. As well as a 4th place finish in Italy in 2021. With 7th place finishes in both the Portugal Masters and Rocco Forte Open providing further encouragement as to his suitability here. 

Laporta made 26 birdies last week, which had him ranked 6th in the field for birdies made, just 3 behind Adri Arnaus, one of those who tasted defeat in the playoff. If he can keep the mistakes to a minimum, he’s playing well enough to take advantage of another course where birdies could well flow, for all it may not be quite as scoreable as Pecanwood.

Louis de Jager has had a solid start to 2022 in South Africa. After a quality performance last week at Pecanwood, where he ranked 1st in the field tee-to-green in an 18th place finish, this big hitter looks primed to break his duck on the DPWT.

That solid start to the year saw de Jager finish 10th, 27th and 42nd on the Sunshine Tour/Challenge Tour before withdrawing in the Jonsson Workwear Open on his penultimate start. He bounced back from the W/D last week with that 18th place finish, not just ranking 1st tee-to-green but equally as important, was 1st in approach. In addition he was strong off-the-tee and around-the-greens, with the putter causing all the problems.

This has often been the story of de Jager’s time on the DPWT, where he’s been predominantly solid tee-to-green over the years but can struggle on the greens. During this time, his best performances on the tour have all come when playing an event at home on the African continent, often co-sanctioned with the Sunshine Tour. Finishing 2nd in Kenya, 3rd at the Tshwane Open and has twice been 4th in Mauritius. 

Much like last week’s venue, this course should be well suited to Louis, as a player who is considerably more about power than he is accuracy off-the-tee and he is indeed one of the players who teed it up in that team event in 2018, finishing 12th. A replication of his tee-to-green performance from last week should see him in the mix and if on a going week with the putter, he can pick up that elusive first DPWT title.

Big hitting Zander Lombard had enjoyed a strong start to the season. After a couple of underwhelming performances in his two most recent starts, I’m expecting him to bounce back this week at a course that sets up well for him.

After starting the year finishing 57th in the Ras Al Khaimah Championship, Lombard then put up two 3rd place finishes on the bounce. The first of those came the very next week at the same venue, following it up in the Cape Town Open next time out in one of those Sunshine Tour/Challenge Tour co-sanctioned events. 

He’s followed on from there with a missed cut in Kenya, a course which really wouldn’t scream out as to his chances, as a tighter more accuracy dependent course and was 65th last week at Pecanwood. Where he actually played pretty well in approach but was a little off in all other areas, though did nothing too alarming. The approach play was particularly attractive as it’d been the only area of his game that had failed to fire on his previous DPWT starts this year. 

Lombard actually possesses the course record here at Steyn City, when shooting a 66 in 2018, something I suspect will be bettered this week. You can’t always take these things as gospel, though if nothing else it at least shows a player who is familiar with playing this golf course, whilst also giving credence to the thought that these big-hitting types may well have the advantage this week.

Further to this he’s made a habit of excelling on these wide, open courses. A 2nd place finish in the Rocco Forte Open rates as his best career performance to date according to OWGR and you can even look at his 3rd place finish at Ras Al Khaimah a few weeks ago for added encouragement. A course which produced two consecutive power-packed winners.

He’ll need to bounce back from a couple of underwhelming performances but in truth he really wasn’t too bad last week. We know the game is there from those two 3rd place finishes previous and I’m hoping he can draw on his experience at the course to get himself in the mix at Steyn City.

Spain’s Alfredo Garcia-Heredia earned his return to the DPWT for the first time in over ten years last year, thanks to a superb year on the Challenge Tour, in which he won once, picked up four top 10s and missed just four cuts. He’s started the year in solid but inconsistent fashion on the DP World Tour this year but is striking the ball well and can bounce back from his MC last week at Pecanwood.

The start of 2022 has seen Garcia-Heredia miss three cuts in five, but when he has made the cut he’s performed well. Finishing 27th in the Ras Al Khaimah Championship and 17th in the Kenya Open. 

Much like his results, his stats have been inconsistent as well but when firing, his approach play has been strong, whilst the driver has been more than adequate. Ranking 35th in approach and 53rd off-the-tee so far this season showing the quality he possesses in ball-striking.  

This was very much on show last week as he ranked 7th tee-to-green, with 5th in approach the standout area of his game and he only missed the cut there at Pecanwood thanks to a poor putting performance. An area of his game he’ll need to find something in this week.

We saw a number of Spaniards go well last week, two of them in the three-man playoff. With his tee-to-green game looking in good shape and Alfredo possessing enough power off-the-tee, I think he has the game to go well this week in Steyn City. With that, I’m hoping he can draw on the positive energy from his countrymen to put up his best DPWT performance to date.