Shriners Open Betting Tips: Best bets from Nevada

Ouch! There was a feeling of inevitability about Sepp Straka’s playoff defeat to Mackenzie Hughes yesterday, as our 40/1 shot just lost out to the Canadian at the Sanderson Farms Championship. 

The Austrian looked to take control a couple of times throughout Sunday’s final round but due to a combination of a little sloppiness around the turn; struggling to dial in an approach shot over the final three holes in regulation after some fantastic drives and Hughes’ fabulous short-game getting him out of trouble more than once down the stretch, we had to settle for a frustrating 2nd place finish, with the 40/1 place somewhat softening the blow.

Onto this week and birdies will be the order of day in Vegas, as we head to TPC Summerlin for the Shriners Children’s Open.

This event started out in 1983, known as the Las Vegas Invitational throughout much of its early years; starting its relationship with Shriners Children’s Hospital in 2008 and has some way or another displayed its name since.

TPC Summerlin has been associated with this event since 1992, when it was a five-round event played over three courses and in 1996 was one of the courses used when a certain Mr. Woods won his first PGA Tour title. It has been the permanent and sole home of the Shriners Open since 2008, providing one of the most birdie-laden tests on the schedule.

Over the 14 renewals of the event since 2008, 11 have been won with a score of -20 or better, possessing an average winning score of -22.3. The course record was set in that first renewal in 2008, with Marc Turnesa shooting -25 to win, though the course has since been changed from a par 72 to a 71; Patrick Cantlay’s -9 in 2017 is the highest winning score in that time period, an event heavily impacted by strong winds.

What makes this course so susceptible to low scoring?

The Course

TPC Summerlin is a par 71 measuring 7255 yards, though will play a tad shorter due to Summerlin being at altitude; made up of 11 par 4s, 4 par 3s and 3 par 5s. Bobby Weed put the course down in 1991, with help from the first winner of this event in 1983, Fuzzy Zoeller. 

What they have created is a typical TPC course, where fun playability is generally more considered than providing a difficult test. The fairways are generous and non-penal should you stray from the short-grass, whilst the large bentgrass greens are receptive and rank amongst the easiest greens to hit on the PGA Tour, with the greens themselves lacking in severe undulations and usually kind to putt on.

This lack of challenge with the ball-striking, combined with how at ease many feel on the greens here is pretty telling in terms of why scores are usually so low here; though it does combat this somewhat with difficulties around-the-greens, where some tight run-off areas have made TPC Summerlin rank in the top 15 toughest courses on tour in which to scramble around over the last six years.

All of the excitement at this venue comes over the closing four holes, where water plays a huge part. The drivable par 4 15th kicks off this four hole stretch, followed by the reachable par 5 16th, of which the green is protected by water to the right; the par 3 17th is not an easy hole to conquer, particularly if in contention on Sunday, with bunkers right and water left of the narrow green; finishing with a longish par 4 closing hole, tasked with a drive over the desert to a generous fairway though where the large green is protected by water to the left. 

A stretch that will make or break many players, with birdies and eagles on offer but where disaster awaits for the most nervy contenders.

The Stats

There are many ways to get it done around here and I’m not sure it favours any particular “type” of golfer; well, except those who can make plenty of birdies. 

You can do it with simply a hot week on the greens, as we saw when Kevin Na won in 2019, who ranked 1st in putting and was pretty average in most other areas. Whilst 2020’s champion, Martin Laird, and his closest challengers all excelled in approach; with Laird ranking 4th and runners-up, Austin Cook and Matthew Wolff ranking 8th and 6th respectively. This the same story for 2016 winner, Rod Pampling, who ranked 2nd in approach when getting the better of Brooks Koepka.

Little can be taken from Sungjae Im’s win last year, as he was quality in every area, ranking no worse than 13th in any SG stat, going some way to explaining his 4-stroke victory, the 2nd largest margin of victory after Webb Simpson’s 6-stroke win in 2013. Though in his closest challengers we see the short-game engineering most of their high finishes on the leaderboard; runner-up, Matthew Wolff ranked 3rd on the greens, whilst 3rd place finishers, Adam Schenk and Marc Leishman ranked 1st and 2nd respectively; with other 3rd place finisher, Rory Sabbatini excelling around-the-greens, ranking 1st.

This short-game quality features heavily throughout the years. Wolff combined quality approach play with a good scrambling week when 2nd in 2020, ranking 4th, whilst Pat Perez ranked 6th in scrambling and putting when 3rd in 2019. Bryson DeChambeau produced an excellent T2G performance when winning in 2019, of which the short-game played a big part, shown by him ranking 3rd in scrambling and 7th around-the-greens, whilst Sam Ryder was solid across the board when 3rd there, though scrambling was his standout stat, where he ranked 3rd.

Being good on and around-the-greens makes plenty of sense here when you consider how many birdie putts you’re likely to set up and need to take advantage of whilst also taking into account that biggest “challenge” that comes around the putting surfaces, in which on the rare occasions you don’t find them you’ll need to be sharp ATGs. 

Approach play is as important as always around here, particularly in that 125-150 yard range. However I’m not inclined to place too much emphasis on the driver, as despite being a course where strong drivers have tasted success, it hasn’t been overwhelming in its importance.

In addition to this, strong par 4 scoring will be an advantage with the 11 you face and it’s always sensible to look at those who rank high in birdie average in such a low scoring affair.

Key Stats: SG: Putting, SG: Approach, SG: Around-the-Greens, Scrambling

Secondary Stats:  Proximity 125-150 yards, Par 4 Scoring, Birdie Average

Correlating Courses

Texas Open @ TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)

I’ll start with a couple of events that also take place in the desert. First up is the Texas Open at TPC San Antonio. A course that is much more challenging but where a strong a short-game can often take you a long way.

Martin Laird has the Texas/Vegas double, whilst 2012 Shriners winner, Ryan Moore has finished 3rd there. Aaron Baddeley, Lucas Glover, Beau Hossler, Adam Hadwin and Chesson Hadley are all players who have strong records here at TPC Summerlin and possess top 5s in Texas.

The American Express @ PGA West/La Quinta

The American Express is the latest iteration of the Desert Classic in California and is much more like TPC Summerlin in the sense scoring is always low, with winning scores regularly exceeding -20; not surprising for a course which is generous off the tee, in which greens are easy to find and not too difficult to read.

Adam Hadwin has strong form-ties across both courses, with multiple top 3s in the AmEx. Siwoo Kim has won there and has a good record here; whilst Kevin Na, Scott Piercy, Tom Hoge and Martin Laird provide further links.

AT & T Byron Nelson @ TPC Craig Ranch

TPC Craig Ranch is new to the PGA Tour schedule, having only held the Byron Nelson the last two years, though has established itself as one of the most birdie-heavy tests on tour. Fairways and greens are easy to find, whilst the greens aren’t too tough to read.

There isn’t a huge amount of form-ties, though I’m sure they’ll develop as more events are staged there, such are the similarities of the two tests. Ryan Palmer, James Hahn, Patton Kizzire and Seamus Power have gone well there in the last two years and have good records here, whilst K.H Lee, who has won both renewals at Craig Ranch, finished 14th at TPC Summerlin last year.

John Deere Classic @ TPC Deere Run

The John Deere Classic is another birdie-fest, where generous fairways and receptive greens help players collect birdies by the bucket-load.

Bryson DeChambeau, Ryan Moore and Jonathan Byrd have won at both venues, whilst Lucas Glover is another past champion there who possesses a good record here. Kevin Na and Ben Martin have both finished runner-up there and won here in Vegas, with further form-ties on offer from Adam Schenk and Scott Piercy.

Wyndham Championship @ Sedgefield Country Club

Birdies are again the order of the day at the Wyndham Championship; though a much tighter course, the challenge is lessened by greens which are as easy to find as any on tour, whilst it also matches up quite closely to TPC Summerlin in terms of difficulty in scrambling.

Webb Simpson and Ryan Moore have mastered both tests, whilst Si-Woo Kim has also won there. Kevin Na and Sungjae Im have finished 2nd, with Chesson Hadley and Will McGirt possessing some good form at both courses.

Travelers Championship @ TPC River Highlands

Finally I’ll finish with the Travelers Championship, as the courses rank similarly in terms of difficulty in scrambling, GIR and driving accuracy.

Ryan Moore and Kevin Na have both gone well there, Moore a runner-up amongst other top 5s and Na having finished top 5 himself. In addition there are strong form-ties found from Beau Hossler, Chesson Hadley, Patton Kizzire, Aaron Baddeley and Will McGirt.

The Weather

We’re set for a hot, dry week in Vegas; with nothing more than a mild breeze currently predicted throughout the four days, the firmness of the course will be countered by a lack of challenge in the conditions and we should expect plenty of birdies as usual.

The Field

World #4 and past champion, Patrick Cantlay is the headliner of the field this week, followed closely by recent Fortinet champion, Max Homa, who sits inside the world’s top 20 for the first time in his career.

Sungjae Im returns as champion and is joined by fellow Korean and Presidents Cup star, Tom ‘Joohyung’ Kim, who kicks off his first full season on the PGA Tour here in Vegas. Whilst the likes of Brian Harman, K.H Lee, Mito Pereira and Keith Mitchell will be making their first starts of the 2022/23 season this week.

Selections

Patrick Cantlay heads the market at 15/2, followed by last year’s winner, Sungjae Im at 16/1 and Max Homa at 18/1. All of their chances are respected but in an event where it’s tough to rule out most of the field and in which a hot putter can drive almost anyone to success; meaning we’ve had some tasty priced winners here over the years, it isn’t one I’m overly keen to go low on and instead will be chasing some bigger prices.

Taylor Montgomery was again of interest as he continued his excellent start to the season last week but is short enough at 33/1 and instead I start with somewhat of a birdie-fest specialist, as the winner of the previous two versions of the Byron Nelson, Korea’s K.H Lee

K.H Lee 60/1 – 1/5 10 places (Boylesports) – 1 pt ew

This is Lee’s first start of the season, though we did see him at the Presidents Cup representing the International Team, where he performed with plenty of credit; finishing the event with 2 wins and 1 loss, including beating Billy Horschel 3 & 1 in the Sunday Singles.

He finished last season in excellent form in the playoffs; finishing 20th in the St Jude Championship and 5th in the BMW Championship; which earned him a first shot at the Tour Championship at East Lake, finishing 27th in the adjusted scoring.

On show over those performances was some strong ball-striking, gaining around 1 stroke per round in the St Jude and 1.6 a round in the BMW, though the putter was the single best club in the bag, as has been the case for much of this year, where he ranked 70th on tour last season, looking particularly good in those closing weeks to last season, gaining strokes in 6 of his 7 most recent starts.

In addition to this, he’s been at his best around-the-greens since playing the PGA Tour and has been solid enough in that regard this season, whilst he also plays the par 4s well, looking to possess a good profile for this event.

This wasn’t necessarily on show in his first three visits, as he missed the cut every time, though achieved his best finish at TPC Summerlin last year, finishing 14th and looking good in every aspect.

Those two wins in the Byron Nelson, where Lee has shot a total of -51 in 8 career rounds should act as a good guide, giving me more confidence in his ability to go even better here than that 14th and if able to pick up where he left off at the Presidents Cup two weeks ago, he looks a danger in this suitable test.

Adam Hadwin 60/1 – 1/5 8 places (Bet365) – 1 pt ew

Canada’s Adam Hadwin was a regular amongst my selections earlier in the year, looking in some of the best form of his career. He tailed off towards the end of last season, though returned at the Sanderson Farms last week, producing an encouraging 45th place finish where each part of his game shone at some point; possessing some strong form here, as well as compelling form at correlating courses, he can go well this week.

That run of form saw Hadwin go 9th at THE PLAYERS, 7th in the Valspar and 4th in the Texas Open in consecutive starts in March/April. His form stumbled a little following that but an 18th place finish in the Memorial Tournament showed somewhat of a return to form, before producing arguably his best result of the season, when 7th in the US Open.

He couldn’t quite capitalise on that positive feeling, missing his next cut at the John Deere Classic; then producing underwhelming finishes of 38-37-69-44 to sign off the season, though he did at least show some quality tee-to-green when 44th in the BMW Championship.

That quality tee-to-green was evident for much of last season, seeing Hadwin rank 14th on tour around-the-greens and 49th in approach; whilst 73rd in putting is a little down on what this usually excellent putter can do, it’s still perfectly solid. A profile which should translate to success around here.

This is evident when looking at his record here, where Hadwin finished 10th on debut and has recorded finishes of 4th and 6th since. He shows his further liking for desert golf with excellent records in The AmEx and in Texas, having twice finished runner-up in the former and was 4th this year in the latter, also possessing a top 10 in the John Deere.

Approach play was Hadwin’s biggest asset last week at the Sanderson Farms, ranking 19th in the field; though not quite firing consistently with the other clubs in the bag there, he did produce quality in each area at least once throughout the week, particularly shining with the putter in round 3, gaining 2.5 strokes; meaning he isn’t that far away from putting it all together and this course gives him a great chance to do so.

Matt Kuchar 70/1 – 1/5 8 places (Bet365) – 1 pt ew

After an underwhelming finish to last season, Matt Kuchar showed hugely encouraging signs at the Fortinet Championship on his return three weeks ago, ranking 9th tee-to-green in a 12th place finish; his best T2G performance since February 2020.

During the early/middle part of the year, Kuchar hit a purple patch of form, with finishes of 2nd in the Texas Open and 3rd in the RBC Heritage in consecutive starts. Though he wasn’t quite able to hit those heights after, he only missed two cuts in his next 8 starts and showed quality with most areas of the game.

The driver was the only area lacking, which makes that performance at the Fortinet all the more pleasing, as he recorded his best driving performance of the year since the Sony Open back in January. This is not the area of most interest though; it’s with the short-game that Kuchar has shone most with this year, ranking 1st around-the-greens, 2nd in scrambling and 11th in putting on the PGA Tour last season. With his appetising profile for this week completed by a ranking of 17th in par 4 scoring.

We see his suitable profile reap dividends on some of his earlier visits to the course, as he finished 2nd in 2008 and 7th in 2009. He didn’t play here for ten years following that but has played the last three years and whilst not quite as good as those earlier starts, he’s made every cut, playing solidly. 

His strong record in Texas adds more strength to his case, where he was 2nd this year and has finished 4th and 7th in the past; as does his record in the Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch, finishing 12th in both renewals. 

If able to reproduce the type of quality he did tee-to-green three weeks ago, whilst firing with that usually trusty putter; this nine-time PGA Tour winner can bring it round to an even ten this week.

Justin Suh 80/1 – 1/5 8 places (Bet365) – 1 pt ew

Former #1 amateur, Justin Suh was the Korn Ferry Tour graduate I was looking most forward to seeing this year. I’m not too concerned about his two missed cuts so far, as it means his price is a little meatier than previous and this is the first event of the three we’ve had to start the season, in which I’ve been really keen to back him.

He’ll no doubt be disappointed to have started the season with two missed cuts on the bounce but we see what he’s all about when looking at his incredible record on the Korn Ferry Tour last season. 

In 24 starts on the tour, Suh hit the top 20 on 16 occasions, recorded 10 top 10s and finally got his rewards in the final event of the year, winning the season ending Korn Ferry Tour Championship.

His game is driven by quality across the board, excelling in all areas and translates to a player who has the ideal game for TPC Summerlin. He made more total birdies there than anyone last season and ranked 2nd in birdie average, this enabled by a player who ranked both high for GIR in 5th and in overall putting, also ranking 5th; whilst he’s a solid scrambler, ranking 21st and excelled on the par 4s more than anyone, ranking 1st.

Californian, Suh showed his ability to perform here last year, finishing 8th, where he was the 5th best iron player in the field. No surprise he was so comfortable there on his first try; as well as him having the ideal game for this course, he is based out here in Vegas and has regularly practiced at TPC Summerlin. With that I’m expecting this huge talent to improve considerably this week on those first two starts to the season.

Kurt Kitayama 80/1 – 1/5 8 places (Williamhill) – 1 pt ew

Kurt Kitayama is another Californian based out in Vegas who is in the form to pick up his first PGA Tour title this week.

We last saw Kitayama finishing 7th in the Italian Open, where he produced a sensational tee-to-green performance, the best of his career and would’ve gone close to winning had he not had a poor week on the greens.

This was the latest in a strong sequence of results which started out with a runner-up finish in the Scottish Open and includes top 20s in the Rocket Mortgage Classic and BMW Championship; a run where despite not producing the level of performance T2G he showed in Italy, he certainly showed signs that performance was coming.

He’s been particularly good around-the-greens, gaining strokes in 8 of his previous 9 starts; whilst the ball-striking has also been solid, gaining strokes in 6/9 off-the-tee and 4/9 in approach, though was unable to put it all together before that trip to Italy.

Any repeat of that type of performance would surely see Kitayama go well and he can improve on his two missed cuts here to date, missed cuts that came during runs of form nowhere near the quality he’s shown of late.

Chris Gotterup 180/1 – 1/5 8 places (Bet365) – 1 pt ew

Chris Gotterup was all the rage a couple of months ago, going off as short as 20/1 for the Barbasol Championship and looks exceptional value here after a lowkey encouraging performance in the Fortinet Championship three weeks ago.

He finished 54th there, though gained strokes on the greens, around-the-greens and in approach; with the driver, one of this big hitter’s main assets, causing all the trouble.

This a surprise for a man who has looked to have an excellent T2G game since playing on the PGA Tour; gaining strokes in 6/8 starts off-the-tee, 6/8 in approach and 4/8 around-the-greens. Something he put well to use when an excellent 4th in the John Deere Classic, ranking only 2nd to eventual winner there, JT Poston. 

That not the first time he showed what he was about, as earlier in the year he finished 7th in the Puerto Rico Open whilst still an amateur, a result which put the former top 25 amateur firmly on everybody’s radar.

His performance at the John Deere shows what he can do on this type of setup, whilst Alex Cjeka and Chesson Hadley have both won in Puerto Rico and have good records here, making that 7th there more meaningful.

If able to reproduce the level of performance he did last time out, whilst getting back to driving it like we all know he can, he can make birdies for fun here and go well at a large price.