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Rocket Mortgage Classic Betting Tips: Six selections from Michigan including 150/1 outsider

Rocket Mortgage Classic tips: Peter Malnati features at a big price.
Rocket Mortgage Classic tips: Peter Malnati features at a big price.

We have just two regular season PGA Tour events left in the 2021/22 season before we head to the season ending FedExCup playoffs. The Donald Ross double header takes us to the Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield Country Club next week, though first we stop in Michigan at Detroit Golf Club for the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

This event is still relatively new to the PGA Tour schedule, having taken place for the first time in 2019 and it has been a shootout every time, with an average winning score of -22 over the three renewals.

Rocket Mortgage Classic Tips

Nate Lashley won the inaugural edition in 2019, running out a 6-shot winner with a score of -25. He was succeeded by Bryson DeChambeau in 2020, who withstood the challenge of Matthew Wolff to win by 3, carding a winning score of -23 and last year Cam Davis picked up his first PGA Tour title, winning a playoff over Joaquin Niemann and Troy Merritt, as all three finished tied on -18.

This is a new slot on the schedule for the event, being played just two events before the playoffs, with the other three versions all taking place at the end of June/beginning of July. Giving the event more importance as we not only see players moving in and out of that top 125 in the FedExCup rankings to get into the valuable playoffs but also those hoping to stay or creep inside the top 150, to maintain PGA Tour status next season.

The Course

Detroit Golf Club’s North Course is a par 72 measuring 7370 yards, designed by Donald Ross, though has gone through multiple renovations since.

The ten par 4s are gettable, with none exceeding 470 yards. Though the final hole, played to a sharp dogleg and into a sloped green protected by a creek to the right does pose some questions and has the potential for a dramatic finish.

Three of the four par 5s are reachable in two for most, though the huge 635 yard 4th hole is certainly no gimme and a similar story for the par 3s, as the 233 yard 11th hole is the only truly difficult one.

In the most simple of terms, this course is, well, simple. Fairways and greens have ranked amongst the easiest to hit since the event made it’s debut and despite being quite heavily tree-lined in places, well-bunkered and possessing some thickish rough, there has been little penalty for missing fairways. With the course also ranking amongst the easiest in which to find greens from off the fairway.

From the perspective of the short-game it has been one of the top three simplest courses to scramble around and the greens aren’t too difficult to putt. The course just doesn’t ask enough questions, which explains why we’ve seen such low winning scores in the three years here so far.

The Stats

There are a variety of ways it get it done around here.

Back in 2019, we saw Nate Lashley win thanks a generally strong all-round display but particularly excelling on the greens, ranking 2nd and in approach, ranking 6th. A similar story for runner-up Doc Redman, who ranked top 25 in every area, though too excelled on the greens, ranking 11th.

In 2020 we saw a different approach from the main contenders, as winner Bryson DeChambeau and runner-up Matthew Wolff took the course on with a power packed, quality driving game. DeChambeau led the field in both SG: off-the-tee and driving distance, whilst Wolff ranked 13th and 5th in those two areas respectively. Both then combined it with a strong putter, DeChambeau ranking 1st and Wolff 5th.

We saw strong drivers feature heavily at the top of the leaderboard again last year, as big hitters, Cam Davis and Joaquin Niemann made up 2/3 of the playoff. Accompanied by the more straight and steady Troy Merritt. With the common denominator once again the putter, as Davis ranked 22nd, Niemann, 8th and Merritt 2nd.

Needing a good week on the greens in a low scoring event is no surprise and whilst I’ll generally favour the longer, higher quality drivers in the field to overpower this course off the tee, I won’t discount the more accuracy dependent players, providing they have their irons in good order. With scoring from approaches between 125-150 yards looking particularly important.

Key Stats: SG: Off-the-Tee, Driving Distance, SG: Putting, SG: Approach, BOB % 125-150 yards, Birdie Average

Correlating Courses

3M Open @ TPC Twin Cities

I used the Rocket Mortgage Classic as a comp for the 3M Open last week, so it makes sense to reverse that here. Both courses have generous fairways and easy to find greens, with leaderboards littered with bomber types.

The top two from 2020 in the RMC, DeChambeau and Wolff, finished 2nd and 1st in the 2019 3M Open. With the form-ties strengthened further by Cameron Tringale, Troy Merritt, Adam Hadwin and Ryan Armour, all possessing top 10s at both venues.

John Deere Classic @ TPC Deere Run

The John Deere Classic is often a similarly low scoring affair that rates as one of the easiest courses on tour, like Detroit Golf Club, in which to find fairways and greens. Whilst being another event in which it’s important to score well from 125-150 yards.

DeChambeau has won the John Deere, whilst Cam Davis has recorded a top 10. Maverick McNealy, Hank Lebioda, Wes Roach and Seamus Power are amongst players to possess top 10s at both courses.

Barbasol Championship @ Keene Trace Golf Club

The Barbasol Championship ranks very closely to the RMC in virtually every way, as a course that just asks few questions across the board. Easy to find greens and fairways, with a lack of penalty for missing either. Though there’s more water in play at Keene Trace.

Form-ties aren’t as easy to find here, as the Barbasol’s previous role as an alternate event meaning it often attracted a weaker field, though there are some links. One of the runners-up here last year, Troy Merritt, won the Barbasol in 2018, something also achieved by Seamus Power. Whilst Sepp Straka, who has finishes of 8th and 11th here, has a 3rd place finish in the Barbasol.

AT & T Byron Nelson @ TPC Craig Ranch

Since taking over as host of the AT & T Byron Nelson last year, TPC Craig Ranch has proven to be a course there for the taking, with winning scores of -26 and -25 in two renewals. Much like this week’s course, it asks no difficult questions tee-to-green and along with a lot of approaches once again falling into that 125-150 yard range, should act as a good comp.

With only 5 recent events hosted between the two courses it’s difficult to find many concrete form-lines though there are some. Merritt and Power appear again possessing 7th and 9th place finishes there respectively. Whilst 2019 Rocket Mortgage runner-up, Doc Redman also has a 9th place finish there.

Sanderson Farms Championship @ Country Club of Jackson

Though fairways at the Country Club of Jackson are much harder to find than here at Detroit Golf Club, the penalty for missing them is of a similar level of difficulty and it’s an event where scoring often exceeds -20. With players like Sam Burns, Sergio Garcia and Cameron Champ as past champions, big hitters typically go well there and it’s another course where scoring from 125-150 yards is of importance.

Cam Davis has a 6th place finish to his name there, whilst Ryan Armour is a past champion. Sungjae Im, Cameron Champ and Chris Kirk strengthen the ties further, with strong records at both events.

RSM Classic @ Sea Island Resort

The RSM Classic at Sea Island Resort is another event where finding fairways and greens is amongst the easiest on tour and that often sees winning scores hit the -20s. It too requires a lot of shots to be hit from the 125-150 yard range.

Kevin Kisner, who has an excellent record here with two top 10s in three visits has finished 1st and 2nd in the RSM Classic. Whilst Tringale and Power appear again, possessing top 4s in the RSM and Canada’s Mackenzie Hughes, who is also a past champion of the RSM, has a rock solid record in the Rocket Mortgage, finishing 14th and 21st on two trips.

The Weather

We should be set for some good scoring conditions this year as the warm, dry weather is accompanied by only a moderate breeze throughout the four days.

As always, this is subject to change.

The Field

We have a good looking field descending on Detroit Golf Club this week, as highest ranked player in the field, Patrick Cantlay at #4, is joined by last week’s 3M Open winner, Tony Finau, as well as Will Zalatoris, Cameron Young and Max Homa from inside the world’s top 20.

They’re joined by a field with plenty of depth, including a further 6 from the world’s top 50. This includes the hugely talented young Korean, Joohyung Kim, who gets in on a sponsor’s exemption.


Patrick Cantlay heads the market at 11/1 and is followed by Tony Finau at 14s. Neither particularly appealing at the prices though their chances are respected. Will Zalatoris and Cameron Young come next, two high class players for whom it’s surely a matter of when, not if they win on tour, and looking good fits for this event.

Though at more than double the price of those two I’m going to kick off with a trio of similarly talented youngsters who should all suit the course, starting with Davis Riley, who I’m giving another chance to following his missed cut last week.

Golf odds
Davis Riley each-way (8 places)
Odds correct as of 2022-07-25 18:15 Odds subject to change.

Following a break of around a month, Riley could never get anything going on his return last week, as he followed an opening round 73, with a second round 71 to miss the cut by one. Nothing was seriously amiss, maybe a little cold on the greens if anything and I think it best to put a line through that.

Last week’s missed cut was Riley’s first in eight starts, coming at the end of what’s been a superb run of form for this high quality ball-striker. One that has seen him reach the top 10 on four occasions. Possessing a best of 2nd in the Valspar Championship.

His strong form has been engineered by quality across the board, though as intimated last week, it’s the recent improvements shown in approach that had brought about better results compared to earlier in the year. Adding that to a solid driving and putting game that had been on show for the most part this season.

He’s gone a little quiet in this regard over his last few stars, though it’s worth noting that he’s still gaining strokes in most rounds and followed a below par round with his irons in round one last week, with a good performance in round two.

He has a rare balance of power and accuracy off-the-tee that can see him take it to this course and he makes more than enough birdies for a low scoring test, ranking 16th on the PGA Tour this season in birdie average, as well as 28th for BOB from 125-150 yards. A 9th place finish at the Byron Nelson shows further his suitability to this type of gettable setup.

I’m expecting Riley to have blown a few cobwebs away last week. This birdie machine should relish this type of test and if rediscovering the level of approach play he was showing just three starts ago, rates as one of the biggest dangers to the market leaders this week.

Sahith Theegala each-way (8 places)
Odds correct as of 2022-07-25 18:20 Odds subject to change.

Much like Riley, California’s Sahith Theegala entered last week’s 3M Open as one of the market leaders and ultimately missed the cut. Though this was following a strong performance in The Open the week prior, where he finished 34th and with virtually every part of his game looking in good shape over the course of what has been an excellent couple of months, I’m taking him to bounce back this week in Detroit.

A highly respected amateur before turning pro in 2020, it hasn’t taken Theegala long to make a name for himself in the pro ranks. With a bunch of contending performances this season and playing in a manner and possessing an attitude to be admired, he’s quickly become a fan favourite.

We first saw Theegala’s potential at this level in the second event of the season at the end of last year, as he finished 8th in the Sanderson Farms Championship, entering the final round in the lead before a faltering finish did for his chances.

After a solid start to this year he burst into life at the Phoenix Open, once again contending in the final round there before an unfortunate kick into the water on the 17th hole caused him to make bogey and eventually settle for a 3rd place finish.

He understandably followed that with a couple of struggling performances but rediscovered his form at the Valspar Championship, finishing 7th and has followed that making 11 of his last 13 cuts, with further high-class performances coming courtesy of a 5th place finish at the Memorial and another nearly week and his best PGA Tour finish to date, when 2nd at the Travelers Championship four starts ago.

There he stood on the 72nd tee with the lead, only to inexplicably find the huge bunker off-the-tee, then inexplicably try the glory shot out of the bunker instead of chipping out, ultimately leading to a double bogey and handing of the title to Xander Schauffele. Another tough beat but he’s come out of it reasonably well.

Theegala’s game is built on general all-round quality and natural creativity. He’s long off-the-tee and been driving it excellently lately, gaining strokes in his last 6 starts, with the same being said about his recent performances around-the-greens.

He’s overcome a mid-season drop with the putter over recent weeks, gaining strokes on four of his last six starts and though his approach play is a little in and out, he’s more than capable of dialling it in.

He has a game that should translate anywhere and on any type of setup. Though he missed the cut on debut here in 2020, he’s come on significantly since and that 8th place finish at the Sanderson Farms should provide a good guide.

He’s taken a couple of tough blows so far in his young pro career but the fact he’s so regularly getting himself into these positions is a huge positive. A win looks only a matter of time away and if he can bounce back from last week, the setup here at Detroit Golf Club looks another good place for him to go well.

Maverick McNealy each-way (10 places)
Odds correct as of 2022-07-25 18:20 Odds subject to change.

My trio of talented youngsters chasing their first PGA Tour title is completed by former #1 amateur, Maverick McNealy. He’s been in good form this season, has a good record here and as a power-packed birdie maker with a strong putter, looks the ideal type for this week.

This is McNealy’s third year on the PGA Tour and though he’s shown great promise previously, which includes two 2nd place finishes last year, he has started to show a greater level of consistency in 2022.

His only two missed cuts this season came back-to-back, four starts ago in the Charles Schwab Challenge and Travelers Championship, after making his first 11 cuts of the year. He’s responded excellently to those setbacks, with an 8th place finish at the John Deere Classic, 16th in the Scottish Open, 9th in the Barracuda Championship and 49th last week in the 3M Open in his next four starts.

His game is very much that of long, strong driving and an excellent putter, ranking top 50 both off-the-tee and in driving distance, as well as 32nd on the greens. Also a player who makes plenty of birdies, ranking 20th for birdie average this season.

His in and out iron game can be a little frustrating though it hasn’t hindered him here, as he’s recorded 8th and 21st place finishes in two visits. With the driver and putter doing most of the work over those two starts, showing how his game suits the course. That 8th place finish at the John Deere adds further encouragement, as well as solid records in the 3M Open and Sanderson Farms Championship.

Despite being ultra-consistent this year, McNealy will be disappointed to have not turned more of those solid performances into contending ones. However he comes here in fine form and if he can combine that strong driving and putting with one of his better approach weeks, he can go well again.

Cameron Champ each-way (8 places)
Odds correct as of 2022-07-25 18:25 Odds subject to change.

Following five missed cuts on the bounce prior, Cameron Champ found some form with a 16th place finish at the 3M Open last week. If history has taught us anything, this three-time PGA Tour winner is to be taken seriously when he shows anything and with a solid enough record at this event, the #1 bomber on tour can pick up a fourth title this week.

This year has been indicative of the enigmatic Champ since he stepped up to the PGA Tour in the 2018/19 season. He’s a player who does away with consistency, instead tending to peak once or twice a year, which often brings about a victory situated amongst a raft of missed cuts.

This was certainly visible in April, as Champ, with 5 missed cuts and a best of 46th in his first eight starts of the year turned up and finished 10th at Augusta. Showing quality in approach which was nowhere to be seen previously in the year. He followed that with a 6th in the Mexico Open thanks to a best putting performance of the year and a solid 38th in the Byron Nelson. Before dropping off and producing those 5 missed cuts before he livened up last week.

He’s not just the longest driver on tour, but also one of the best, ranking 10th this season. Something which he shows even when results are flagging. The rest of his game is as in and out as his results, though he’s shown glimpses of quality in approach over those missed cuts.

This was evidenced last week as he gained strokes in every round in approach, though it’s the putter that was the most eye-catching. As he followed a poor first round where he ranked as the 147th best putter in the field by being one of the best putters in the field over the course of the next three rounds, something I’m hoping he can carry into this week.

Champ has played here three times, finishing 46th on debut in 2019, 12th in 2020 and missed the cut last year. A solid record but it’s his correlating form that makes him stand out more, as he’s a past champion of both the Sanderson Farms Championship and 3M Open, as well as possessing a 6th place finish in the RSM Classic.

Both of Champ’s last two wins came with him showing poor form, then finding a little bit of something the week before. That is the case as we enter this week and with every part of his game looking in good shape last week, this proven winner looks a real danger in this year’s Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Chris Kirk each-way (8 places)
Odds correct as of 2022-07-25 18:30 Odds subject to change.

Chris Kirk has been one of the best golfers on the PGA Tour this season tee-to-green, where he ranks 11th. With his previously faltering putter showing better signs over recent starts, he can improve on a good record in this event to pick up a win to cap off what has been a good year so far.

Kirk’s good year has seen him pick up four top 10s, with his best performances coming in some stacked fields. As he finished 5th at the PGA Championship and in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, as well as 7th in the Honda Classic and Canadian Open, which came just three starts ago. With solid performances in both the Scottish Open, finishing 71st and Open Championship two weeks ago, finishing 42nd, his most recent efforts.

These performances are all made possible by the strength of that tee-to-green game, in which he excels around-the-greens, ranking 4th and off-the-tee ranking 21st. Approach play has been solid enough too, ranking 51st and even though he was a little off in those two most recent starts, I’ll forgive anyone who doesn’t quite have it firing on the links. Especially when you consider he’d gained in approach in 7 of his 9 starts prior to his trip to Scotland.

If he can get back to hitting his irons the way he’d been doing before that and keep up the improvements on the greens of recent starts, where he’s gained strokes in five of his last six, he looks well placed to contend this week.

This opinion is enhanced by a record which reads 21-12 in two starts at Detroit Golf Club. In addition is some attractive correlating form from Kirk, in the shape of a 2nd place finish in the Sanderson Farms Championship and 4th place finish in the RSM Classic.

Not just this year but Kirk’s consistency has been on show over the last two years. He can get reward for that and the overcoming of well documented personal problems by picking up the title in Detroit.

Peter Malnati each-way (8 places)
Odds correct as of 2022-07-25 18:30 Odds subject to change.

Peter Malnati produced his best ball-striking performance of the year when finishing 11th last week at the 3M Open, ranking 12th in approach and 13th off-the-tee. If he can combine that with his usually excellent putter this week, this lover of the birdie-fest would look dangerous.

This year has been a solid one for this often erratic ball-striker, with just 7 missed cut in 20 much better than the last two years. Just the one top 10 has come from those extra made cuts, when he finished 9th at the Byron Nelson, with his 11th place finish last week his 2nd best effort of the year.

That performance last week came off the back of one of Malnati’s poorer runs of form this year, though there have been some marginal, positive signs with the driver over previous starts, where he’d started to find better accuracy. Something he carried over into last week with just a generally strong all-round driving performance, indeed his best driving performance of the year. Whilst the irons were firing earlier in the year, last week’s performance was his 2nd best approach performance of the year.

Considering he’s a player who rarely excels off-the-tee or in approach, it’s remarkable that Malnati ranks so highly in birdie making, in 39th. Also ranking 55th in BOB from 125-150 yards. The putter the main help in this regard, where he ranks 69th this season,  a ranking largely impacted by an uncharacteristically poor run of putting at the end of last year.

He finished 29th here on debut and missed his following two cuts, though I am buoyed by his strong record in the Sanderson Farms, where he’s finished 1st and 2nd. Whilst that best of the year 9th in the Byron Nelson is also a positive.

Malnati looks most at home in an event where making plenty of birdies is the prerequisite. Not only does he come into such an event this week off the back of a 2nd best finish of the year but with a strong ball-striking performance on show and if able to replicate that, he’d look a lively outsider.

Golf betting tips
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