QPR vs Luton Odds: Three bets for Friday's Championship game from the capital

Domestic action returns in the Championship this weekend and it commences at the Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium where Queen Park Rangers host Luton Town on Friday night.

A spot in the play-offs awaits the winners of this clash and the bookmakers odds suggest that they fancy the hosts, pricing them as favourites at 5/4. However, the visitors may be the value at 11/5 as they have won 34% of their matches when priced accordingly. 

According to the underlying data, the league table does not reflect the endeavour of either side. QPR may sit in 6th but according to their xPTS, they should languish in 14th. Despite picking up a point, they were underwhelming when they travelled to Bloomfield Road and with Andre Gray unavailable here, Mark Warburton will need Lydon Dykes firing on all cylinders here if they are going to extend their unbeaten run to three games. 

Luton may have to cope without Luke Berry here as the midfielder remains a doubt. Nathan Jones could deploy the mercurial Fred Onyedinma on the left of a front three, flanking Elijah Adebayo, or give him the free role. Either way, he will persist with the five at the back as he searches for consistent results. 

The Hatters should consider themselves unlucky to be eleventh as xPTS has them in 4th, trailing Fulham, West Brom and Bouremouth. Despite winning just three of their last ten games, they have won the xG battle in eight, which suggests their fortunes should change.

Therefore, although the table has QPR above the visitors, it should be the other way around. So, at the prices available, it makes sense to side with Jones’ side in some capacity here as they make the trip down south. 

Taking Luton with a quarter of a goal headstart on the asian handicap means the only way the bet loses is if Luton lose, it pays out if Luton win and there is a half stake return if it ends all square. So, at 89/100 with Bet365, this is my strongest fancy for this fixture. 

With eight league goals to his name, Elijah Adebayo tops his sides goalscoring charts and is amongst the pack chasing Aleksandar Mitrovic. Only Luke Berry (1.9) has a higher shots per game average than Adebayo (1.7) at Luton. 

His xG per 90 average of 0.52 and goals per 90 average of 0.60 are some of the best in the league. To put it into perspective, given those averages a price of 6/4 would have represented value here so Betfair’s 11/5 for him to score anytime certainly appeals. 

Luton have scored in 12 of their league matches this season and Adebayo has been amongst the goals in half of those games. 

The R’s have only kept a clean sheet in 30% of their Championship games this season, though it is worth pointing out that their opposition generated an combined xG of 4.44 across those fixtures with three of them doing more than enough to score at least once. 

Given his goalscoring form, seven in his last ten, and his underlying metrics combined with the hosts defensive fragility, I think Adebayo could enjoy himself on Friday evening. 

Luton’s talisman has already scored two braces this season and is on penalty duty which is why I think Unibet’s price of 15/1 for him to hit the double is worthy of a small punt here. 

Best of luck if you are backing any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.