PSG vs Barcelona Prediction and Betting Tips: Back Gundogan at a huge price in the fouls market

The Champions League quarter-finals continue on Wednesday as Paris Saint-Germain take on Barcelona in the French capital. We've asked Anthony Eadson to provide us with his best bets for the game, which can be backed at 5/6 and 8/1. 

Luis Enrique’s side made it to the last-eight of the competition by beating Real Sociedad 4-1 on aggregate in the round of 16. After managing a 2-0 win in the first leg at home, they came out 2-1 victors in the return match. Kylian Mbappé was the only player on the scoresheet in the second leg, bagging a brace. The Parisiens are now unbeaten in their last 27 games in all competitions (Wins 19 Draws 8 Losses 0). 

The last time Barcelona appeared in a Champions League quarter-final was when they suffered their heaviest ever defeat in European competition, losing 8-2 to Bayern Munich. They’ve only progressed from the quarter-finals in one of their last five attempts (2018-19 v Manchester United). 

The hosts are the favourites to take an advantage back to Spain, priced at 10/11 to get the win. The draw can be backed at 13/5, while an away win for Barcelona can be sided with at 11/4.  

Our first selection on Wednesday evening comes from the player fouls market, where we are getting behind Barcelona’s Ilkay Gundogan to give away at least one in the match. At the time of writing, 5/6 is the best price available in the industry, provided by bet365.  

The main objective for Barcelona will be to shut out their opponents and guarantee that they remain in the tie going into the second leg. This should hopefully lead to a high foul-count for the visitors, and we think the 5/6 for Gundogan to concede one or more looks a little too big.  

In the Champions League this season, the former Manchester City man has started seven matches and has cleared this line in five of those. Betfair and Paddy Power have this same selection priced at just 4/9, while Sky go slightly bigger at 4/7. Considering the importance of this game for both teams, the 5/6 from bet365 could well prove to be a price that holds plenty of value.  

At 8/1, we will also be having a little tickle on Robert Lewandowski to provide an assist anytime in the match. The market may be overlooking Barcelona a little for this first leg, considering they arrive here considerably fresher than PSG.  

Since Barcelona last were in action the PSG have played fixtures in both the Coupe de France and Ligue 1, however they did rest several key names for their league game last weekend. This could open the door for Barca to hit PSG on the break and we’ll be hoping Lewandowski can turn provider. 

No player for Barcelona has registered more assists for Xavi’s side this season than Lewandowski who has eight in 25 league appearances. The Polish front man has also one in the Champions League this season and with other firms having him priced as short as 17/4 for an assist, 8/1 with bet365 looks like a very backable price.