Premier League Relegation Odds 22/23: Are Leeds in danger this season?

As the money on offer in the Premier League continues to grow, the importance of remaining in the division has even more significance for certain clubs. Today at BettingOdds.com we’re carrying on our ante-post series and have decided to take a look at the relegation market for the 2022/2023 season.

The Promoted Clubs

Since the Premier League was introduced back in 1992, a total of 40 of the 89 newly promoted teams, have been relegated back down to the English second-tier at the first attempt. Watford and Norwich both suffered this fate last season and this time it will be Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest and Fulham, who are the new boys looking to avoid the drop. Only once in Premier League history have all three of the newly promoted sides been relegated, which came back in 1997/1998, when Barnsley, Bolton and Crystal Palace all went down. 

Having a look at the market, it’s Bournemouth who are the shortest priced team with the bookmakers to be relegated this season, odds-on at around 8/15 with most firms. The Cherries have been almost silent in the transfer window so far and they need to seriously bolster their squad, should they want to stand any chance of safety this term.

In contrast, Nottingham Forest have already been out and splashed £63m this summer. Of course, spending money doesn’t guarantee survival, as shown with Fulham spending £100m in 2020/2021, but with signings, such as Dean Henderson (loan), Neco Williams, and Taiwo Awoniyi, they look to be giving themselves every chance. Harry Toffolo and Lewis O’Brien from Huddersfield are also reportedly close to making the step up to Premier League signing for the Reds.

Forest are currently being offered at a best of even money (1/1) with bet365 to be playing Championship football in twelve months time. The two-time European Cup holders conceded just 28 goals in the 38 league games that Steve Cooper was in charge of last season, and keeping things tight again at the back could be the key to their success in the months ahead. 

Fulham are the most fancied of the three newly promoted sides to keep their top-flight status, with 5/4 on offer with most firms for those who fancy them to be relegated. Those odds imply a 44.4% chance that the Cottagers will end up back in the Championship next season. Fulham have already brought in Joao Palhinha from Sporting Lisbon for £18m, along with Brazilian Andreas Periera from Manchester United, with more arrivals expected before the close of the window.

Who else could be in danger?

Next up in the betting is Leeds United who escaped the drop by the barest of margins last season, when staying up on the final day of the campaign with an away win at Brentford. Jesse Marsch has lost arguably his two best players this summer with Kalvin Phillips departing down the M62 to Manchester City, and Raphinha swapping Elland Road for the Nou Camp. Paddy Power have the best price on offer at the time of writing for Leeds to be relegated in 2022/2023 with 12/5 available.

Brentford enjoyed a memorable first campaign back in the English top-flight since 1947. The Bees managed an opening day victory over the Gunners and a emphatic 4-1 away win at Chelsea on their way to 13th in the table. The departure of Christian Eriksen to Manchester United will be a large hole to fill, but we believe Thomas Frank can keep Brentford in the division once again.  For those who are of a different persuasion, 9/4 is available for them to drop back down to the Championship in the season ahead. 

Southampton ended last season on just 40 points, with only the three relegated sides having managed fewer victories. Many fear for their Premier League status in the year ahead however, Saints have signed Joe Aribo from Rangers and a couple of Man City academy players in Gavin Bazunu and Romeo Lavia. BoyleSports are currently a standout top price of 7/2 for Ralph Hassenhuttl’s side to be relegated.

Everton found themselves in a relegation battle that went right down to the final weeks of the season in 2021/2022, and after losing Richarlison they have lost a key part of their attack. The arrival of James Tarkowski from Burnley is sure to help tighten up the defence, but it’s hard to see this side drastically changing their form of last season and we think Frank Lampard could struggle. A fully fit Dominic Calvert-Lewin will be pivotal to their progress under Lampard with the Toffees 9/2 to be relegated from the Premier League for the first time. 

Patrick Viera was the favourite to be the first to be sacked in the 2021/2022 campaign, but enjoyed an excellent first season with the Eagles, guiding them to 12th. It could be argued that this is Crystal Palace’s strongest squad they have ever had in Premier League history and with the former Arsenal legend now having a young, exciting crop of players at his disposal, they look poised to go well this time out. The Frenchman masterminded wins over Tottenham, Arsenal, Manchester United and Manchester City in 2021/2022 and if they can keep hold of some of their most valuable assets in Wilfried Zaha, Michael Olise and Marc Guehi, there should be no issues of relegation for which they are 11/2 with most betting firms.

Looking at those at bigger prices, Graham Potter’s Brighton are 9/1 after their top-half finish in 2021/2022. Two sides from the Midlands come next, with Aston Villa at 14/1 and Leicester City at 16/1. West Ham at 25/1 and Newcastle at 33’s rounds off the betting for those outside of the ‘big-six’

Who to back?

After analysing the squads of those teams most likely to be relegated this season, it’s pretty hard to not envision Bournemouth being one of those in the bottom three come May. Their squad looks incredibly thin, and their only arrivals so far have been Joe Rothwell who has made the switch from Blackburn, and Ryan Fredericks from West Ham, with both arriving on a free. In our opinion Parker needs to add some serious signings to his squad if they are to stand any chance of staying up this season, but at 8/13 with most bookmakers, they aren’t the most backable of prices.

The other team we fancy to taste relegation in the season ahead is Leeds, at 12/5 which is available with several firms. The West Yorkshire club have lost their two star players this summer in Kalvin Phillips and Raphinha, with one going to Manchester City and one going to Barcelona. The stature of their new clubs speaks volumes about the quality they possess and just how much they will be missed at Leeds.

Although new arrivals have come through the door in Tyler Adams and Brenden Aaronson, we still think they will struggle. Leeds survived on the last day of the season just a few months ago, and with other teams down at the bottom such as Forest and Fulham starting to spend, we fear Jesse Marsch’s team will be dragged into the mire. 

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