Penrith Panthers vs Brisbane Broncos Tips: Predictions as Panthers fancied to continue Grand Final dominance
It is impossible to compare teams throughout eras in sport, but one thing is certain in rugby league; there has never been a side throughout the game's history that could claim definitively they are better than the current Penrith Panthers. An awesome defensive machine and a slick attacking force, the Panthers will step out for their fourth consecutive Grand Final in the hunt for a historic third consecutive NRL title.
In their way stand the surprise package of the season the Brisbane Broncos, who have been a swashbuckling attacking side that have garnered plenty of support from neutrals for their devil-may-care attitude with the ball which saw them finish in second spot on the ladder. A young side with a talisman at full back in Reece Walsh, the Broncos certainly have what it takes to trouble the reigning champions but Billy Grimshaw is sticking with the Panthers to nail the threepeat...
Many in the town of St Helens would disagree with the following statement, but Penrith Panthers are the best club side in rugby league. Admittedly they lost the World Club Challenge to the all conquering Super League champions Saints earlier this year, but the Panthers clearly took the Englishmen lightly and now that they have hit their straps as the NRL draws to its conclusion, hardly any side can lay a glove on them. This NRL Grand Final is the one most wanted to see, with the clear best two sides in world rugby league's premier competition colliding with the ultimate prize on the line.
The game is Brisbane's first Grand Final since their heart-breaking golden point loss to North Queensland in 2015 and although the Broncos are one of the best supported sides in the NRL, they have been starved of success of late. This young Brisbane side has plenty who will grow from this experience, with shades shining through of what happened to Penrith in 2020 when they were outfoxed in the big game by a veteran Melbourne Storm. This of course began the Panthers' era of dominance and the Broncos could well be next in line, but 2023 looks a year too soon considering the juggernaut they are facing off with.
Penrith are a deliciously well oiled machine and with master coach Ivan Cleary in the box and arguably the best player in the game right now his son Nathan steering the side from half back, they should be too strong even for the Broncos here and I'll be taking them in the handicap markets to make it a stunning three Grand Final wins in a row.
The Panthers are chalked up as 4/6 favourites for the 2023 Grand Final, with the Broncos available to back at 6/4 and the draw a best price of 20/1. If a cautious punter I could not put anyone off simply backing the defending two time champions to win again at those odds as although Brisbane have been superb in 2023 and a real breathe of fresh air, the Panthers are just better than them. At full back Brisbane undoubtedly have the more talented number 1 in Reece Walsh, a young gun who has lit up the NRL this season with his scintillating speed and phenomenal tries and assists.
NRL Grand Final Tips
Opposite Walsh is the best defensive full back in the game in Dylan Edwards. Last season's Grand Final Man of the Match is the smartest full back in rugby league and directs the 12 men in front of him expertly in defence. Edwards also has a brilliant nose for danger and is the master of the cover tackle, while also providing a brilliant outlet in attack when the Panthers choose to spread the ball and Nathan Cleary or Jarome Luai are looking for an outlet behind their lead runners. Penrith have undoubtedly the world's best winger, the metre eater Brian To'o, an outstanding centre in Stephen Crichton and a half back pairing for the ages in the aforementioned Cleary and Luai.
Rugby league in the modern era is as much about positioning and ending sets in the right place as anything else there is nobody better at pinpoint kicking then Cleary. Combine this with his phenomenal passing game and deceptively strong run style and he is basically the complete half back. It is a bold prediction but I do think he will go down as the greatest of all time when his career is over. The pack is formidable with no weak links, and James Fisher-Harris will lead the props in laying the platform while workhorse Isaah Yeo will provide plenty of guile and grunt with ball in hand. Add in one of the best line runners rugby league has seen in Liam Martin and the Panthers really are a side for the ages.
Brisbane have their threats outside of Walsh, with a brilliant centre pairing and a formidable pack led by Payne Haas and Pat Carrigan, but it will take a perfect game from the Broncos to trouble Penrith. Adam Reynolds will have to kick perfectly, Walsh will have to create game breaking moments from full back, and the forwards will have to win the territory battle against the best pack around. Even if this all happens, Penrith still have Edwards' superb defensive mind at the back and for that reason I can't see them losing here. The handicap line is -4 with bet365 and at 11/10 that looks a brilliant price. I'd fancy the Panthers to take control early and just squeeze the game away from Brisbane, eventually pulling clear in the final quarter.
It is probably fairly obvious by now how sweet I am on the Penrith Panthers, so for our second bet I will really double down. Throughout the years in big sporting finals a common recurrence is the younger more inexperienced team freeze up on the grandest stage of them all. Penrith to be clear are not a 19 point better team than Brisbane if they both turn up on their A game. Would I still back Penrith to cover our main bet of -4? Yes I would, but this second bet will require one of two scenarios to play out.
The first scenario is the Panthers play the best game they have ever played. In their nigh on four year reign as the top side in the NRL this squad have put in some of the best performances seen anywhere in any code of rugby, but if Brisbane play to their capabilities and Penrith still blow them away then this will be a final talked about for generations. Perhaps the Panthers have that in their locker and with Cleary, Luai et al it is not out of the realms of possibility, however the more likely scenario this bet lands I feel is that Brisbane capitulate.
The Broncos have shown they are tough this season but have also blown away teams inferior to the Panthers regularly of late. In the final game of the campaign if things look bleak they will be casting their eyes back looking for Walsh to drag them out of the mire. The young poster boy certainly has it in him, but he also has a clanger of a mistake in him too. In the pressure cooker of a Grand Final when down by a few tries and needing points, Walsh will throw caution to the wind and when this happens we have seen plenty of opposition outside backs profit this season with interception tries.
The 5/1 on offer with Betfair for the Panthers to win by 19 or more looks a shade too big and will do as a longer odds tip for what should be an absolutely pulsating crescendo to a brilliant NRL season.
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