Hull KR vs Leigh Leopards Tips: Predictions as Super League Play-Offs begin

At the commencement of the 2023 Super League season, if someone would have said that Hull KR and Leigh would be kicking off the play-offs a fair few eyebrows would've been raised. The freshly promoted Leopards had spent big but history was against them, while the Robins were supposedly set for a transition year with an old squad and a new coach.

Fresh from having four Super League Dream Team players announced, Leigh head to Humberside in buoyant mood for a gripping fourth vs fifth do-or-die battle against the club against whom they so dramatically won the Challenge Cup final back in July. Nothing could separate the sides that day in London and Billy Grimshaw believes this game could be just as tight with both teams' seasons on the line...

As much as the pervading stories in rugby league in the Northern Hemisphere this season have centred around the disappointing seasons of Leeds, Hull FC and to a lesser extent Huddersfield, the sides that have snatched their places in the big time have been on quite the journey. Hull KR have finished in fourth spot on the ladder which is their best ever Super League finish, guaranteeing a home play-off. In the end they pipped Leigh for this spot by the smallest of margins on points difference after the Leopards form understandably wobbled in the aftermath of their historic Wembley triumph against Friday's opponents.

That game will still sting for the Robins but they need not revenge as a motivator when a shot at glory is the prize, which is exactly what is on offer here. The victor here will likely face the daunting task of going to league leaders Wigan in a Grand Final eliminator, but whoever comes out on top of this titanic tussle will head to the Cherry and Whites in bullish mood. The teams on paper are so tough to split, with both sides possessing a smattering of star power while also covering for a few limitations which are natural in a salary capped sport.

There has been hardly anything to split these two teams all season, indeed they recorded the same number of wins and losses (16 and 11), and although Hull KR have home advantage and will have the raucous Craven Park faithful driving them on, I am struggling to split the teams. There is an argument in nearly every position on the pitch over which side is better equipped, while the coaches seem evenly matched along with the fanaticism of the supporters.

There are rumblings around the Leigh Leopards at the moment which would worry anyone tempted to back them for victory in East Hull. Firstly, loose cannon owner Derek Beaumont has been drunkenly sounding off again within ear shot of journalists about his lack of faith in the governing body. Without Beaumont the Leopards would not exist and the Leigh rugby league club would still be in the second tier, but his relentless attention seeking must grate on his players and coach Adrian Lam. Of more pressing concern than their owners mouth however are the very real fitness concerns over inspirational captain John Asiata.

Named in the dream team at loose forward earlier this week, Asiata has been a revelation for the Leopards as their fourth pivot in attack, taking a load off fellow dream team member Lachlan Lam as well as Ben Reynolds and Gareth O'Brien. He is brilliant with ball in hand and a workhorse in defence, often playing the full eighty minutes. If he is ruled out or can only play a limited part for Leigh that would be a hammer blow, however he doesn't seem the type to sit out a game of this magnitude if humanly possible. Across the field Asiata will face off with another brilliant Super League loose forward in Elliot Minchella who has been phenomenal all year for KR.

Outside of Asiata, Leigh's front row of Amone and Mulhern have been a match for any pack in the league in 2023 and will lay a platform, while another dream teamer Edwin Ipape is dynamite out of dummy half and can create something from nothing at any moment while also providing ferocious defensive hits. This front row is the best in Super League but Hull KR's pack is full of grinders and they will not back down.

Intriguingly the Leopards have future Robin Oliver Gildart in the centres on loan until the end of the season and if Gildart is to bag the winner on Friday night who knows how welcome he'll be in pre-season in East Hull! Hull KR have their own brilliant strike centre in dream teamer and captain Shaun Kenny-Dowall, who will hang up his boots at the end of the campaign. SKD is their main strike weapon but with Mikey Lewis reborn at full back and Brad Schneider an inspired short term loan half back, they will fancy their chances of beating the Leythers.

Across the field I think these sides are so well matched that I would have the game as a pick'um, with Leigh's slightly better key players matched by the obvious advantage Hull KR have of being at home. With that being said the wise play is to back Leigh +4 in the hope that even if they lose, it won't be by much.

Mercifully for the big crowd expected at Craven Park on Friday night, the weather looks relatively calm and dry in East Hull. This would aid both sides' natural game as they are both known to like to move the ball, however when the play-offs roll around expansive teams usually change their tune. With that in mind, I am expecting a real grind of a match here with points at a premium and both teams unwilling to risk a crucial mistake in the wrong area of the field. Usually I am keen to back some try scorers but not here, instead I will go with a speculative punt on the draw.

20/1 is the best price on the market place and while I'd perhaps like a few points bigger, there is plenty to suggest the draw is more likely than odds compilers have made it. Firstly these two know each other inside out this campaign and as I have alluded to there really is hardly a whisker to choose between them. Any trick plays either side know will have been sussed by their opposite number and in the end it could simply come down to which team comes out with the most intensity in this winner takes all game.

Obviously the Challenge Cup final ended a draw before golden point which would've led this bet to be a winner, and another plus in the column for the draw is both sides possessing op tier goal kickers. My expectation for low try numbers for each team means that the kickers should notch the conversions at an even rate thus keeping the scores in-line. Both teams have their share of drop goal exponents but are by no means bomb proof in this regard so for small stakes I'll have a dabble on the draw at 20s.