Leeds Rhinos vs. Hull FC Betting Tips: Back the Airlie Birds to take the points at Headingley

Leeds and Hull started the season in contrasting manners last week, with the Rhinos being thumped 42-10 by Warrington in the season curtain raiser on Thursday before Hull FC held on to beat Castleford 32-30 on Sunday. The Rhinos have had a much longer break before this game, but with such a poor performance to bounce back from Billy Grimshaw isn't convinced the short turnaround will impede Hull FC making it two wins from two. Read on for his full match preview and three tips...

An intriguing clash of nephew and uncle will be the storyline at Headingley on Friday night, as Rohan Smith's Rhinos welcome legendary veteran Tony Smith and his new Hull FC side. Rohan worked minor miracles last season in getting the Rhinos all the way to the Grand Final, while Tony ended Leeds' title drought when boss of the Rhinos in 2004. The elder Smith was sacked mid season last year at Hull KR and has crossed the city divide to take the reins at Hull FC ahead of the 2023 season.

Bolstered by some exciting NRL recruits, the Airlie Birds started their season in blistering style, bolting to a seemingly unassailable lead against Castleford in front of a big crowd of jubilant FC fans. However, some of the old frailties resurfaced and in the end FC just about held on (32-30) from the Tigers' rally. Leeds' first game of the season finished in much less exciting fashion, with the Rhinos out of contention by half time against a white-hot Warrington.

Alarm bells will be ringing at Headingley after Leeds brought their poor pre-season form into the first round, and with injuries still a hindrance it could be a slow start to Super League 2023 for the Rhinos. Mikolaj Oledzki is a huge miss in the front row and Harry Newman being out removes a lot of strike from the backline. Leeds' defence was woeful at Warrington and Hull FC's massive pack and new look spine will be licking their lips at the prospect of running over the Rhinos much like Warrington did.

I was surprised to see the odds compilers make Hull FC such a big price to head west in Yorkshire and be victorious at Headingley. As good as Warrington were last Thursday, Leeds really were a rabble. Their attack was clunky, their defence was weak and the enthusiasm was non-existent. Warrington rolled the Rhinos time and time again and with FC possessing big units like Chris Satae, Brad Fash and Scott Taylor they will fancy their chances of doing the same.

Although they wilted in the second half and nearly threw away the two points against Castleford, FC were very good in the opening forty minutes. Already looking like a classic Tony Smith coached side they threw the ball around plenty and were inventive from set plays, scoring two tries from scrums. Key to this were the former Newcastle Knights duo Jake Clifford and Tex Hoy. Clifford in the halves steers the ship while Hoy at full back provides moments of magic, whether that be a sharp burst through a gap himself or a pinpoint pass to set up his teammates.

Hoy would be my tip for man of the match here but the main bet will be banking on Hull FC to win the game outright and heap more misery on the Rhinos as they begin their 2023 home campaign with a first defeat on their own turf under Rohan Smith's tutelage.

Sticking with the theme of Leeds' pack being easy to bully without Oledzki, the selection for both first and anytime try-scorer is former Rhino Brad Dwyer. The lively hooker is second to no one in Super League when it comes to sniffing out lazy markers and darting through the gaps they leave behind, and with FC predicted to win the floor in most tackles I can see him having plenty of joy for the Black and Whites. He started last weekend against Castleford which surprised a few given club legend Danny Houghton was relegated to the bench, but proved his worth with a dynamic display.

Dwyer is, along with Joey Lussick at St Helens, the hooker most synonymous in Super League with a scoot over try and he would love to bag one on his former stomping ground to enhance his reputation with his new club. Against Castleford the little dummy half came agonisingly close to opening the scoring, being held up over the line after mere minutes of action. He is never shy to go it alone and I think there is juice in his price both to score and to score first here with Leeds' sloppy defence a prime target.

Another former Rhino in Liam Sutcliffe made some appeal in try-scorer markets too due to his positioning as left centre for FC. The Black and Whites seemed to favour that edge against Castleford, with Clifford and Hoy repeatedly swinging that way, while Adam Swift could profit again as the left winger. For tipping purposes though I will stick with backing FC to win and Dwyer in the try-scorer markets.