Pebble Beach Pro-Am Tips & Predictions: Berger to bounce back at the Beach
Our man Russell Palmer returns with three more golf betting tips as the PGA Tour moves west to the spectacular Monterrey coastline in northern California for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am...
It was a tough week in Phoenix, with Henrik Norlander the best placed of my trio of selections T22 at 90/1. My main pick Daniel Berger had a very uncharacteristic missed cut and I'm hoping he can right himself this week at Pebble.
As the name suggests, this tournament usually takes the form of a pro-am, but there'll be no amateurs on the links this week just like at Torrey Pines a fortnight ago due to COVID.
It's not a strong a line-up in terms of depth this week, made the more weak due to Dustin Johnson's scratching on Monday night leaving Patrick Cantlay the 15/2 favourite.
Whilst no DJ is good for the remaining players, it did result in me having to re-write a lot of this preview as the news dropped before me publishing.
For the interest of transparency I was going to put up Daniel Berger this week who was 18/1 this week before DJ pulled out and is now a 14/1 second favourite.
I'm still keen on Berger as you'll see below but have also added another relatively short priced pick in golfing terms plus a long shot I like here at Pebble Beach and Spyglass (three rounds at Pebble, one at Spyglass GC).
First up I'm going back to the Daniel Berger shaped well, hoping he can bounce back from that missed cut in Phoenix with a strong display here.
Before last week's MC, he had back to back top tens on the PGA Tour in 2021 and he arrives at a course where he has finished 10th and 5th on his two starts.
It's not as if he played badly in the Phoenix Open, missing the cut on the number finishing two under par for his first two rounds. Two bogeys in his last four holes cost him dearly but I'm not overly concerned by his form and think he's a good option at the price from those near the top of the betting.
The 27-year-old was sent off 18/1 last week and he was behind the likes of John Rahm, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele and Webb Simpson in the betting, whilst it's just Patrick Cantlay at shorter odds this week.
I think the 14/1 each-way is still decent value.
Francesco Molinari may be lacking course experience this week but after a long break last year during the height of the COVID pandemic, the Italian is slowly regaining his form and has been finishing well under the radar in recent weeks.
Molinari has dropped to 95 in the world and whilst he wasn't setting the world alight before lockdown, he made a conscious decision not to rush back and didn't play from the Players in March which was cancelled mid-tournament right through to the Shriners in October.
He has two missed cuts in his five tournaments back, including at the Masters but in his other three tournaments he's played well, 15th in the Houston Open in November before 8th and 10th placed finishes in his last two starts.
It's a short course this week with Pebble only 7,816 yards par 72, which should play to Molinari's strengths which are his straight driving and iron play. He ranks 6th on the PGA Tour for shots gained tee to green, 6th shots gained around the green and 17th for shots gained approaching the green.
This is his debut in this event but finished tied for 15th at the 2019 US Open on -3 so can play well at Pebble.
I like his chances at 25/1 and reckon he'll be low owned in DFS this week as well.
Last up this week I like 66/1 chance Chris Kirk with William Hill paying eight places.
I'm a fan of the 35-year-old who has fought some inner demons to come back strong on the PGA Tour over the last 12 months and I think his recent form and this weeks courses shape up well for him.
The American ranks top ten in this week's field for both par 4 scoring average and par 5 performance and he's a strong second shot player ranking in the top 50 for shots gained approaching the green.
He missed the cut last week but he was second in the Sony Open in Hawaii three tournaments ago shooting four straight 65s. He followed that up with another top-20 in the American Express before last week's blip.
He has four PGA titles to his name so knows how to get it done and he also got his eye in last season on the Korn Ferry Tour in his first tournament back from lockdown last June. He's missed his last two cuts at Pebble but they came during a particularly dark time for the player who has had battle back from addiction and he does have a 2nd here back in 2013.
Best of the rest
I had a long shortlist of players who stack up well in the approaching the green stats as well as a good mix of recent and course form. Paul Casey has been playing really well and wouldn't be a surprise if he were to feature at the sharp end but that's factored into his price of 16/1.
Will Zalatoris has got the game to get to the very top but the bookies have him well onside at 20/1 whilst the likes of Sam Burns and Henrik Norlander I fancy to play well, but just a tad too short in the betting this week.
As ever, good luck with your bets if you're following and please gamble responsibly. I'm going to keep showing my record post lockdown for a few weeks until we have some 2021 results to show.
Follow me at Twitter @rustyboy75.
Post-lockdown form:
Winners
- Tyrrell Hatton - BMW PGA Championship - advised at 16/1
- John Catlin - Irish Open - advised at 40/1
- Jon Rahm - BMW Championship - advised at 14/1
- Dustin Johnson - Northern Trust - advised at 20/1
- Justin Thomas - WGC FedEx St Jude - advised at 12/1
- Webb Simpson - RBC Heritage - advised at 30/1
Placed
- Colin Morikawa - T7 Sony Open In Hawaii - advised at 14/1
- Xander Schauffele - T5 Sentry Tournament of Champions - advised at 10/1
- Laurie Canter - 2nd Italian Open - advised at 45/1
- Kristoffer Ventura - T6 Sanderson Farms Championship - advised at 80/1
- Xander Schauffele - 5th US Open - advised at 16/1
- Kristoffer Ventura - T7 Safeway Open - advised at 80/1
- Laurie Canter - 2nd Portugal Masters - advised at 66/1
- Si Woo Kim - T3 Wyndham Championship - advised at 40/1
- Jason Day - T4 USPGA Championship - advised at 40/1
- Phil Mickelson - 2nd WGC FedEx St Jude - advised at 110/1
- Viktor Hovland - 3rd Workday Charity Open - advised at 25/1
- Kevin Streelman - T7 Workday Charity Open - advised at 60/1
- Tyrrell Hatton - T4 Rocket Mortgage Classic - advised at 16/1
