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Open de Espana Betting Tips: Best bets as the DPWT moves to Madrid

Golf
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Spain is our home for the next three weeks on the DPWT, as we enter the closing stretch of the 2021/22 season, with just six events remaining. It’s to the iconic Valderrama we go next week for the Andalucia Masters, though first we stop off in Madrid for the Open de Espana at Club de Campo Villa de Madrid.

This is an event that was first played over 100 years ago in 1912 and has been a mainstay on the DPWT schedule since 1972; missing only twice during that period, in 2017 and in 2020 due to the pandemic.

Club de Campo Villa de Madrid plays host for the third renewal in a row, with Spanish fans enjoying back-to-back Spanish winners at the venue; as Jon Rahm produced a sensational display to win by five-strokes in 2019; with Rafa Cabrera Bello getting the better of Adri Arnaus in an all-Spanish playoff last year. 

It’s in fact three Spanish winners in a row if we move away from this course if you go back to 2018, where Jon Rahm won his first title on home soil at Centro Nacional de Golf.

Will we get a fourth Spanish success in a row this week? 

The Course

Javier Arana’s Club de Campo Villa de Madrid is a tree-lined par 71, measuring 7112 yards, made up of 11 par 4s, 4 par 3s and 3 par 5s. The par 5s stand out to me as the key holes on the course, all relatively short and gettable; plenty of birdies and better will be made on these holes this week and pars will be made to feel like bogeys.

It’s a tricky course with elevation changes throughout; most holes are tight with narrow, doglegging fairways made all the more difficult to find due to many of the tee-shots being at an angle to the fairway. Greens are small for the most part and get pretty undulating on the back 9; with many protected by deep, intimidating bunkers and run-off areas repelling balls further; it’s been statistically tough to scramble around in these two renewals. 

With that, I’ve been surprised by the quality of scoring both in 2019 & 2021. I felt Rahm’s winning score of -22 was a little deceptive in 2019, as he’s one of the best players on the planet and was simply in scintillating form, with the players chasing him home finding the course much more of a challenge.

However last year, in similarly firm, non-windy conditions as we find this week, the scoring was arguably better, despite nobody matching Rahm’s -22. Cabrera Bello and Arnaus tied on -19, with -15 only good enough for a 9th place finish.

I do think the scorability of those previously mentioned par 5s helps this, whilst the rough isn’t overly thick and there aren’t many ultra-challenging, lengthy par 4s; the 505 yard 1st hole in fact the longest par 4 on the course, with only a further two above 450, but there is enough challenge here tee-to-green to keep players on their toes.

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The Stats 

We’ve had a mixed set of stats in those two years. Jon Rahm produced quality across the board in his victory in 2019, so there’s little point trying to pick apart his performance for clues. There was a strong emphasis on quality driving there, with runner-up Rafa Cabrera-Bello and 4th place finisher, Adri Arnaus ranking 7th and 5th off-the-tee, respectively. 

This was not the case last year, with none of the top 5 ranking inside the top 10 off-the-tee, Julien Guerrier, the best, ranking 12th when finishing 3rd. 

Cabrera-Bello drove it well enough, ranking 24th, though it was in approach and scrambling where he excelled most, ranking 6th and 2nd. This need for a strong short-game was on show once again in the game of the guy he beat in the playoff, Adri Arnaus, who ranked 1st in putting, 5th in scrambling and 9th around-the-greens, whilst Guerrier combined that solid driving display with quality around-the-greens, ranking 1st in scrambling and 6th around-the-greens. 

These strong scrambling stats are what ties together the two renewals the most, as in 2019, the top two, Rahm and Cabrera-Bello, ranked 3rd and 1st respectively: with 4th place finishers, Jeff Winther and JB Hansen ranking 13th and 14th. 

There’s certainly been a theme of bigger hitters going well, I think largely due to them being able to club down for position off the tee; with names like Jon Rahm, Adri Arnaus, Grant Forrest and Wilco Nienaber featuring heavily, though I think it’s imperative to match that with plenty of accuracy as too much trouble awaits in these trees; so overall quality off-the-tee is preferred to simply being a bomber, which brings those who pummel fairways into consideration.

That being said, it’s in other areas where I place most importance around here. Strong scrambling binds the two renewals together more than anything else, whilst quality iron play, as well as an ability to simply find these small greens has proven key. That not forgetting that you must take advantage of the par 5s so not to lose ground on the rest of the field.

Key Stats: Scrambling, SG: Approach, Par 5 scoring

Secondary Stats: SG: Off-the-Tee, Greens-in-Regulation

Correlating Courses

Omega European Masters @ Crans-Sur-Sierre

Tight, tree-lined course with narrow fairways, elevation changes; that often sees big hitters go well, taking advantage of the scorable par 5s and attackable par 4s; Crans jumped straight off the page at me as a comp for this week.

Adri Arnaus has recorded 6th and 9th place finishes there, whilst Renato Paratore, 9th here last year has twice finished 7th at Crans. Richard Bland was 9th here last year and has finished 5th in the OEM, with Lucas Bjerregaard and Mike Lorenzo Vera supplying further form-ties.

Kenya Open @ Karen Country Club & Muthaiga Golf Club

The Kenya Open has taken place on the Challenge Tour and more recently on the DPWT since the early 90s. Karen CC and Muthaiga GC share hosting duties and both should function as a good comp for Club de Campo, as tight tree-lined courses that longer & shorter hitters alike have been able to contend. 

Adri Arnaus has finished 2nd at Karen and 8th at Muthaiga, with Justin Harding, 7th here in 2019 a winner and runner-up at Karen CC. Expect stronger form-ties to develop in time.

Dubai Desert Classic @ Emirates Golf Club

Emirates Golf Club is a tough driving course that has some strong form-ties with this venue already.

Rafa Cabrera-Bello is a past champion there, whilst Arnaus has recorded finishes of 3rd and 9th. Richard Bland was runner-up to Viktor Hovland in Dubai earlier this year, Just Harding has two top 7s, the same for Jason Scrivener, who has finished 7th in Madrid.

Andalucia Masters @ Valderrama

Finally I felt the need to include Valderrama. It’s like this week’s venue on steroids, with virtually every aspect you find here also on show there but ramped up x100.

Arnaus has finished 2nd there and Justin Harding 3rd. In addition to this Will Besseling, Wilco Nienaber and Masahiro Kawamura have finished 3rd, 6th and 8th at Valderrama, whilst possessing top 10s here in Madrid.

The Weather

We have warm, dry conditions on show this week, with little in the way of wind. This is almost identical to the conditions of last year and as such, we’ll likely see a similar level of scoring.

The Field

World #6, Jon Rahm is the star in the field, as he looks to match Seve’s hat-trick of titles in his home open. Tommy Fleetwood adds a little more star quality; joined by reigning champion Rafa Cabrera-Bello; perennial challenger, Adri Arnaus and classy Australian, Min Woo Lee.

Selections

The only other week this year in which Jon Rahm has played in a field as weak as this, in the Mexico Open; he went and won. That being said, he’s no price here at 9/4, especially considering outside of that win he’s underwhelmed a little this year and not been at his best. 

The aim is to get him beat this week and the same too goes for his nearest challenger in the market, Tommy Fleetwood at 8/1, who has only played twice in the last two and a half months. 

Adri Arnaus comes next at 18s and is entitled to respect with his excellent record here, having finished 2nd  and 4th but he’s not always the most dependable player, something I’d really be wanting for someone at that price.

Weeks like this feel like a bit of a free hit; if Rahm produces anything closely resembling his best he’ll take a whole lot of stopping and they’ll all likely be playing for 2nd; but this is golf, anything can happen and if he’s a little off it, as he was last year when finishing 17th, we can capitalise.

With that there’s a good bit of speculation amongst my picks, with three at 100/1+, though I start with a couple more towards the top of the market. 

Open De Espana Tips

Open de Espana Odds
Thriston Lawrence - each-way 8 places
35/1
Odds correct as of 2022-10-04 13:20 Odds subject to change.

Thriston Lawrence is this week’s headliner and I’m taking the talented South African, who recently became a two-time DPWT winner when winning the European Masters five starts ago, to take to Club de Campo on his first visit.

That win was no doubt huge for Lawrence and would’ve almost felt like his breakthrough win, as his first title came in unusual circumstances last year in the Joburg Open, with the event being called after just two rounds due to incoming covid restrictions.

He was impressive throughout in the Euro Masters; taking a three shot lead into the final round, he battled back well from a double-bogey early on, shooting -2 from there on in, though Matt Wallace forced him into a playoff thanks to a fabulous finish. However, Lawrence showed his mettle, getting the better of the Englishman to claim the trophy.

This didn’t come out of the blue for Lawrence, as he’d been one of the form men on tour this year. He finished 2nd in the Kenya Open on his fifth start of 2022, following that with consecutive top 10s in South Africa. He then picked up a further three top 25s in his next nine starts, before finishing 3rd in the Irish Open, a solid top 25 in the Scottish Open followed and the week prior to his victory, Lawrence finished 8th in the Czech Masters.

Following his win, he missed his next two cuts but bounced back well in France, finishing 20th; whilst a MC in the Dunhill Links doesn’t tell the whole story, as he only narrowly missed that 3rd round cut by one stroke, firing two round in the 60s out of three, only falling foul to the treacherous conditions on Friday.

Lawrence possesses quality right across the board; an excellent ball-striker, ranking 20th on tour this season off-the-tee, as well as 23rd in GIR and 27th in approach; he compliments this with a solid short-game, ranking 34th on the greens and 68th in scrambling; whilst he’s one of the best par 5 scorers on tour, ranking 9th this season; another tick for his chances on this setup.

We can find further confidence in his ability to go well here first time with those two standout performances this year, with his win at Crans and runner-up finish at Muthaiga in the Kenya Open amongst my favourite comp courses this week. Even that 3rd in Ireland bodes well.

That mini-slump following his win didn’t last long, he looked good tee-to-green in France and produced quality across the board in his two rounds outside of the brutal conditions last week; possessing a profile as attractive as anyone outside the top two in the betting, he can be the one to give them the most to think about this week.

Jorge Campillo - each-way 8 places
45/1
Odds correct as of 2022-10-04 13:20 Odds subject to change.

There are few more sure things in golf than Spaniards contending on home soil; we saw that earlier in the year with Pablo Larrazabal and Adri Arnaus winning consecutive events in the ISPS Handa Championship and Catalunya Championship in Spain; as well as that run of three consecutive Spanish winners here and the all-Spanish playoff last year.

With that it’s sensible to have a couple onside; whilst I was tempted to go back in on Larrazabal and last year’s winner, Rafa Cabrera Bello looks a decent enough price, considering he was 9th at Wentworth three starts ago; it’s Jorge Campillo that appeals most to me from the top 20 or so in the betting.

Campillo’s year has been solid, right through his results and is reflected by his stats, in which he is producing positive strokes gained numbers in every area.

This consistency of performance has resulted in him compiling eight top 25s, three of them top 10s; a 4th in the European Masters five starts ago the best of them; where his typically fine short-game was well on show, much like it has been in this second half of the year, including when 9th in Italy three starts ago. 

Campillo has failed to fire on both previous visits here; missing the cut in 2019 and finishing 45th last year, however I’m not too concerned as he arrived here in previous years in worse form. His 4th in the Euro Masters this year is of obvious interest as a correlating course, whilst he also went well at Muthaiga earlier this year, finishing 13th.

In addition to this, he has the fire-power to take it to the par 5s, ranking 34th on tour this season in par 5 scoring and if able to draw on the experience of his two previous DPWT wins, along with that recent form, he can continue the glut of Spanish winners here over recent years.

Lucas Bjerregaard - each-way 8 places
75/1
Odds correct as of 2022-10-04 13:20 Odds subject to change.

I backed Lucas Bjerregaard last week and despite missing the cut he showed enough to make me give him another chance here, at a place where he finished 12th on debut last year. 

That missed cut was a result of him shooting a 79 in the hellish 2nd round; either side of that he shot solid rounds of 70, with his scrambling skills and ability with the driver on show.

As mentioned last week, prior to his trip to the Dunhill Links, signs for Bjerregaard had been positive. His 3rd place finish in the Wales Open seven starts ago is his best result of the year, whilst his 20th in France the 2nd best. A period where each area of his game has fired, if not always at the same time; though in Wales he did show what he is capable of when it does.

When finishing 12th here last year, his all-round game was in a worse state, with any results engineered largely by the putter. That was indeed one of the clubs which fired him to that 12th place finish but he also used his power-packed driving game to his advantage. This is not a surprise when you consider he finished runner-up in the European Masters in 2018 and was 9th there the year previous.

Some missed cuts mean less than others and the Alfred Dunhill Links certainly falls into that category, even without considering the adverse conditions. Bjerregaard’s game looks in a good place and if able to transfer it to this venue, which he performed so well at last year, he can go even better.

Golf Tips
Nacho Elvira - each-way 7 places
100/1
Odds correct as of 2022-10-04 13:20 Odds subject to change.

Nacho Elvira is my 2nd Spaniard and the first of my three, three-figure shots. His form has been solid and he has some enticing pieces of correlating form, particularly at the Euro Masters, which gives me confidence he can improve on his 37th place finish here in 2019.

His year has been inconsistent, though dotted with quality performances; with three top 10s, courtesy of a 6th place finish in the MyGolfLife Open, a 9th place finish in the Soudal Open and another 9th five starts ago in the European Masters.

It’s in approach and around-the-greens where Elvira has excelled most this year, ranking 38th ATG, 59th in scrambling and 59th in approach. The driver and putter haven’t fired as much but there have been plenty of positive performances throughout the year in both areas; though sporadic, which explains the inconsistency in his results.

I am encouraged by two of his four best performances this year coming over his last six starts, with that 9th in the Euro Masters following a 12th place finish in the Wales Open. The Euro Masters result tells me of his ability to go well here, whilst he went even better there in 2018, finishing 4th. In addition to this he’s finished 11th in Dubai and though not included above, many form-ties have developed in the last few years between here and Wales, a place where he won last year.

Elvira finished 52nd in the Dunhill Links last week, though opened with an excellent 64, which had him sat 5th after round one. His short-game was the standout area there, whilst he also controlled it well off-the-tee in those tricky conditions and if able to replicate that type of performance here, he can go well this week. 

Jazz Janewattananond - each-way 6 paces
150/1
Odds correct as of 2022-10-04 13:25 Odds subject to change.

Thailand’s Jazz Janewattananond turned pro in 2010 as a 15 year old. It took him a few years to start finding his feet in the pro game, though when he did he never looked back, winning seven times in Asia between 2017-2019; also showing his ability at this heightened level of the DPWT, finishing 2nd in the Fiji International in 2017, 6th in Sweden in Nordea Masters in 2018 and 3rd in the Maybank Championship in 2019.

This resulted in him starting 2020 amongst the top 50 players in the world; earning his way into some of the of the biggest tournaments on both sides of the pond. Despite starting the year well he struggled coming out of the pandemic, however finished 3rd in the Irish Open towards the end of that year, signalling again a player who could make a name for himself on this tour.

2021 offered more encouragement, a 2nd in the Kenya Open at Karen Country Club early in the year his best result, whilst he finished 4th in the Dubai Championship in his last start on tour last year, though too many of the results in between were underwhelming.

Jazz started this year well, splitting his time between the DPWT and Asian Tour, picking up seven top 20s in his first twelve starts of the year. 

His middle part of the year was disappointing in comparison but he has started to look better over the last couple of months, producing his two best DPWT finishes of the year when 9th in the Wales Open and 13th in the Open de France two starts ago.

His ball-striking has been inconsistent, though he’s starting to produce some better performances with the driver, however the irons continue to be a little concerning.

He does combat this somewhat with an electric short-game, ranking 17th around-the-greens and 27th in scrambling this year, whilst he’s capable of catching serious fire on the greens, as shown in his performances in Wales and France.

This was also evidenced here last year when he finished 24th, combining a good week on the greens with a quality approach performance, something he’ll desperately be hoping to rediscover this week. 

His 2nd in the Kenya Open last year is a hugely encouraging piece of form as to his ability to perform well around here and though I’d obviously prefer him to be showing improvements with the irons, the rest of his game looks in a good enough position for this previously highly touted player to show everyone what all that fuss was about a couple of years ago.

Julian Suri - each-way 6 places
200/1
Odds correct as of 2022-10-04 13:25 Odds subject to change.

Finally I’m going to take a chance on Julian Suri. He’s suffered with injuries since looking a star in the making back in 2017, where he won the Made in Denmark on his 6th start on tour and continued to show form right through to the early part of 2019; though his 13th place finish in France on his latest start was his best for over three years and there was significant encouragement there that there could be better yet to come.

Suri made his name as a player possessing a strong all-round T2G game, something which had largely disappeared over the last three years; with the exception of his short-game, which has remained of a good standard and the odd run with the driver.

Almost every other area bar that trusty short-game showed improvement in France, with him producing his best driving performance since late 2020, his best putting performance of the year and though still losing strokes with his irons, it was in fact his best approach performance of the year.

A replication of that, along with his quality around the greens can see Suri improve on his 55th place finish here in 2019, a week where his short-game did all the heavy lifting and in which the long-game was way off what he produced in France two weeks ago. His record at Valderrama can offer further encouragement, finishing 8th and 15th there in three visits.

At just 31-years-old, Julian Suri still has plenty of time on his side to get back to that level of performance he was showing in 2017-2019 and I’m taking him to kick on from his performance in France this week in Madrid.

Julian Suri – Top 10 finish
18/1
Odds correct as of 2022-10-04 13:25 Odds subject to change.
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