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Newcastle vs. Aston Villa Predictions: Goals and Cards on the agenda

Eddie Howe's Newcastle revolution is gathering pace
Eddie Howe's Newcastle revolution is gathering pace

Newcastle welcome Aston Villa to St James’ Park on Sunday afternoon, live on Sky Sports.

Newcastle seem to be reaping the rewards of what seems a successful transfer window, as back to back wins has seen them move out of the bottom three with them now occupying 17th place. Huge wins over Leeds and Everton boosted their chances of survival massively as they seek a third win on the bounce.

As for the away side, they were involved in a 6 goal thriller in their last outing – a 3-3 home draw with Leeds United was a disappointing result when you consider they lead 3-1 - which means it is now just 1 win in 5 for Gerrard's men. New loan signing Philippe Coutinho stole the show on his full home debut but Jacob Ramsey is the name on everyone's lips. The young English midfielder scored his 4th and 5th goals of the season against Leeds, both assists coming from Coutinho, a link up that will definitely excite Villa fans for the rest of the season.

The reverse fixture ended 2-0 in favour of Aston Villa in game week two, but that’s less relevant now considering the additions to both squads and change of managers since that clash. The bookies are struggling to split the two sides, with both sitting around 17/10 and the draw at 23/10.

As for the team news. Matt Targett is not available to face his parent club so Dan Burn may come in at Left back for a full debut. Huge signing Bruno Guimaraes will be looking to make his first start after only coming off the bench vs Everton.

Aston Villa will be without Ezri Konsa as he is serving his one match suspension after picking up two yellows vs Leeds. Leon Bailey and Bertrand Traore are likely to miss out through injury

Newcastle vs Aston Villa Tips

Newcastle vs Aston Villa Odds

Football Odds
Over 1 Goal and Both Teams Over 0 Second Half Cards
Odds correct as of 2022-02-13 10:55 Odds subject to change.

Goals and cards can definitely be on the agenda here, so for our main play we can combine the two for a bet just shy of even money.

Eddie Howe has revitalised this Newcastle side and along with that seems to see some card heavy games. Both teams have received at least 1 second half card in all 4 of the Premier league games he’s managed, with a card average of 5.5 cards per game.

Craig Pawson is the referee for this one, and he is not shy of dishing them out when necessary – in fact in the last Villa game he took charge of a couple of weeks ago, the game saw 9 match cards with 8 coming in the second half!

With Eddie Howe's attacking approach I’m convinced we should see goals in this game. Villa looked amazing going forward against Leeds, but conceded 3 in the process. Adding in this 1/4 selection gives us a 20/21 shot for Sunday afternoon – as short as 3/4 with William Hill.

Over 37.5 tackles and Over 13.5 shots for Newcastle
Odds correct as of 2022-02-13 10:50 Odds subject to change.

Newcastle's last 4 games have averaged 42.5 tackles, with over 37.5 landing in 3 out of the 4. It is a small sample size since Howe took over, but a clear increase in their games.

Despite the bookies having no clear favourite I fancy Newcastle to get on the front foot. There is a big feel-good factor around the club at the moment and St. James’ can create a hefty atmosphere – adding in 13.5 shots looks fair and should go close and they managed 20 in their last home game.

These two stats based plays combine to give us a 5/1 shot which I think looks good this Sunday afternoon.

Newcastle vs Aston Villa Match Centre
Cash, McGinn and Shelvey to be carded
Odds correct as of 2022-02-13 10:55 Odds subject to change.

With the card expectancy high on this game I can’t help but have a tiny play on a 50/1 longshot treble. I feel if the cards flow then the usual suspects won’t be far away from the ref's book.

McGinn and Shelvey are obvious candidates- McGinn was the premier league's most carded player last season and has 5 in 19 this campaign. Shelvey is Newcastle’s most carded player and has 7 cards in 14 games, with 2 coming in his last 3.

Matty Cash is a nice priced single at 15/4 as he opposes Allan Saint Maximin. The right back has 6 cards in 22 games and faces ASM here, who Is always getting full backs in the book, so he completes the treble.

This same bet is as short as 19/1 with Betfair, so a much more appealing price with 365.

Best of luck if you follow these bets, but more importantly stick to advised unit stakes which should help return a long term profit.

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