Newcastle vs. Aston Villa Betting Tips: Back Martinez to be carded in the North East

Newcastle United and Aston Villa go head-to-head at St James’ Park to kick off their Premier League seasons. After a six goal thriller in pre-season between the sides, this is set to be another cracker which kicks off at 17:30 on Sunday, live on Sky Sports Main Event. Our man Dean Woodward returns after a summer break with a preview of the game and his best bets. 

Newcastle's transformation under the guidance of coach Eddie Howe is nothing short of remarkable. In under two years, he steered the Magpies from Premier League survival struggles to securing a spot in the esteemed Champions League, culminating in an impressive fourth-place finish last season. 

Howe's tactical prowess has been further fortified by new additions Sandro Tonali and Harvey Barnes, who are set to make their starting debuts, joined by Tino Livramento, a £32 million acquisition from Southampton. Howe has options up top with a choice between Alexander Isak and Callum Wilson. Wilson is no stranger to opening-weekend success, having scored consistently in the first fixtures of the past three seasons. However, his starting role isn't guaranteed.

Aston Villa, led by Unai Emery, enters the new campaign with great expectations. Pre-season experiments with a three-man defence could provide an interesting setup, especially with the involvement of exciting signing Moussa Diaby, who's already made a huge impact in pre-season. Ollie Watkins, last season's top scorer, is raring to lead the line, having found the net against Lazio and Valencia recently. However, injury concerns sideline Alex Moreno and Jacob Ramsey.

The records seem to favour Newcastle on their turf, with a formidable 14-game unbeaten streak against their Birmingham-based counterparts. Aston Villa, however, are eager to rewrite history after handing Newcastle an unexpected 3-0 thumping last April. Although the odds may not be in Villa's favour (Newcastle 3/4, Draw 11/4, Villa 18/5), their recent resurgence under the leadership of Unai Emery, along with an impressive 2023 points tally, speaks volumes about their determination to challenge for Europe once again.

Aston Villa have looked extremely solid under Unai Emery, especially towards the back end of the season, which makes me see this Newcastle shot line as a little too high. Looking at Villa's last ten games of last season, they didn’t concede over sixteen shots, conceding an average of just 8.6 per game. Newcastle shots did take a significant increase towards the end of last season, but I think this game will be well in the balance.

With Villa's change of system under Emery, they implemented a high line playing the offside trap efficiently, catching their opposition offside more than any  other team in the Premier League. Their last fourteen games of the season saw their opposition caught offside sixty-eight times, a whopping average of 4.86 per game.

Seven yellow cards across thirty-six Premier League games last season for the Villa keeper is quite an impressive feat, boasting almost a card every five matches. 

Villa impressed me a lot last season, managing ten wins from their last fifteen matches which included victories against Brighton, Tottenham, and the 3-0 thumping of Newcastle back in April. At the prices, Villa look very appealing at almost 4/1. With the new FA rules put in place in regards to time wasting, we have seen a huge increase in booking across England. If Villa manage to go ahead at St James Park on Saturday evening, it's unlikely Martinez will refrain from his usual time wasting antics, giving this 19/1 a huge chance.

@DeanWoodward93 Weekly article for BettingOddsUK Profit/Loss – January 2022-Present = +42.97u +42.36% ROI