Man City v Club Brugge Tips: Jimmy The Punt's three picks from the Etihad

Man City suffered a shock defeat to Crystal Palace at the weekend which saw them fall five points behind leaders Chelsea in the Premier League at the weekend. Pep Guardiola’s side will be keen to put that defeat behind them with another emphatic victory of Belgian outfit Club Brugge at the Etihad. 

The bookmakers clearly fancy the hosts here as well, pricing City at around 11/100 which puts their expected chance of victory at 90%. However, a shock victory for Philippe Clement’s side would see them leapfrog the hosts and given the fact that they held PSG to a 1-1 draw on Matchday One and beat RB Leipzig at the Red Bull Arena I do not think they can be dismissed here.

In terms of team news, Aymeric Laporte is available here despite receiving his marching orders on Saturday. Who Pep will deploy in the heart of defence is anyone's guess though with the Manchester Derby on the horizon and Laporte, Ruben Dias, John Stones and Nathan Ake all available for this UCL fixture. 

As for the visitors, Clement will be forced into one change due to the suspension of Eder Balanta.

The hosts may be clear favourites here, but they have really struggled for clean sheets as of late. Since their Champions League opener vs RB Leipzig in mid September, they have played eleven games in all competitions keeping four clean sheets and shipping 14 goals! 

Within that period, only Burnley, Chelsea and the Saints have been thwarted by Ederson and co domestically, however, you could argue City were a tad fortuitous given the fact that those three sides generated an xG of 1.80 between them.

It is also worth noting that Palace and Wycombe have found the net against them at the Etihad this season and Wednesday’s opponents Club Brugge scored in the reverse fixture.

When these sides met two weeks ago at the Jan Breydel Stadium, Clinton Mata was booked and I fancy him to repeat the feat at the Etihad. 

Given Mata has picked up 43Y and 3R in a career spanning 219 games, you could make a case that Bet365’s price is too short. Even his cards per 90 averaged of 0.26 suggests a price closer to 3/1 would represent value. However, this angle is more about who he will be opposing; Jack Grealish. 

Last campaign for Aston Villa in the EPL, he drew the most fouls of any player in the division (109), 21 more than second placed Wilfred Zaha. This season, he has been City’s most fouled player, drawing an average of 2.20 per game in the top flight and UCL with an opposition right back being booked in a quarter of the games he has started.

Given that I fancy the visitors to be amongst the goals at the Etihad this evening it makes sense to plump one of their attackers in the goalscorer market. With City very short favourites there’s some tasty prices knocking about and at 9/1 with Betfair I have looked no further than the big Belgian Charles De Ketelaere who is expected to be spearheading their attack. 

De Ketelaere has seven domestic goal contributions this season which translates to a G + A average of 0.57 and although he has not bagged himself a Champions League goal this campaign, he scored twice in the group stage of last season's competition. Therefore, he should be back amongst the goals on the European stage soon and should fancy himself against a rotated City backline.  

He has also picked up three cards this season in the Pro League, a tally only bested by Noa Lang (5). Betvictor has the best price for him to pick up a card at the Etihad (11/2) but you can combine a card with a goal on Betfair at 52/1 which will provide us with a bit of entertainment here. With Man City sure to dominate possession, De Ketelaere will be doing more work of the ball then he will be onit so could add to that tally. 

Best of luck if you are backing any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.