Made in HimmerLand Betting Tips: Six selections in Denmark

This week the DP World Tour heads north and to Denmark for the Made in HimmerLand, previously the Made in Denmark, at HimmerLand Golf Resort’s New Course.

The tournament was established in 2014 and has taken place every year since, barring 2020 due to covid. With HimmerLand hosting in all but the 2018 edition, which was played at Silkeborg Ry GolfKlub.

That year, HimmerLand played host to the Made in Denmark Challenge on the Challenge Tour and has also hosted multiple events on the Nordic Golf League.

Austria’s Bernd Wiesberger has had sole ownership of this title since 2019, winning both that year’s renewal and last year’s event back-to-back. With last year’s victory coming courtesy of a super-impressive 5-shot win over Italy’s Guido Migliozzi, where he set the tournament record with a score of 21-under-par.

The 2019 edition was much closer and more difficult, as he beat Robert MacIntyre to the title by 1-shot, with a score of -14 good enough to claim the trophy.

Matt Wallace won the 2018 edition at Silkeborg, following on from American, Julian Suri’s win in 2017, as he triumphed over 2015 champion David Horsey by 4-strokes, with a 72-hole score of -19 firing him to victory.

Big-hitting Belgian, Thomas Pieters overcame Wales’ Bradley Dredge in 2016, his 2nd runner-up finish in the event, following on from that success of Horsey’s in 2015, where he had a group of 5 players 2 shots behind and the inaugural edition in 2014 was won by Scotland’s Marc Warren in the toughest renewal to date, as he shot -9 to confine Bradley Dredge to the first of his two 2nd place finishes here at HimmerLand.

Though we’ve had a couple of really low winning scores in that -21 last year and Suri’s -19 in 2017, both were runaway victories with the course playing much tougher for the rest of the field, with some other higher scoring years meaning the event has an average winning score of -15.5 in the six times it’s been staged here at HimmerLand. This short, scorable course is certainly no pushover and will require the players to be at their best to try and match some of those better scoring performances we’ve seen in years gone by.

The Course

HimmerLand Resort’s New Course was originally designed in 1993, though in 2011 went through a complete redesign. It’s a course that though short on paper for this tournament, currently set to play as a 6686 yard par 71 this week, it does have the potential to stretch out to 7300+ yards, should the event’s organizers desire.

There is great variety throughout, with risk/reward opportunities aplenty, including four potentially drivable par 4s, the shortest of which is the 269 yard 14th and three par 5s, which contrast greatly, from the 472 yard 5th hole to the mammoth 645 yard 11th hole.

The par 3s too are scorable, with the 16th hole the most famous on the course. A tiny par 3 that will play at sub 100 yards at some point throughout the week and surrounded by fans on all sides, it usually provides plenty of drama and excitement, particularly as those in contention go chasing a birdie on Sunday.

This resort course is wide open and exposed, though don’t let this into fooling you that there is no danger. There are elevation changes throughout and though appearing wide enough, the fairways here are historically difficult to hit, with large bunkers, some deep, cutting into many of the fairways to make them tighter. Whilst the rough, particularly if you start going too far off-line can be brutally difficult, something we’ve seen ramped up in the two most recent editions.

This has meant that the tricky, slopy greens which were initially very easy to find have been less so in recent years. With run-off areas around many requiring the need for a good short-game and water in-play on around 1/3 of the holes adding to that danger.

Though abound with scoring opportunities, this course is not easy, particularly if the wind blows as it looks to do this week and you will need to play well T2G to take greatest advantage of these chances.

The Stats

Similarly to last week’s test at Crans-sur-Sierre, the length of this course means it’s playable for all. Having said that, despite leaderboards possessing a good mix of bigger hitters and more accuracy dependent players, it’s hard to ignore that in Bernd Wiesberger, Julian Suri, Thomas Pieters and Marc Warren, four of the five players to taste victory at HimmerLand have been more power than accuracy. It just feels like a course that though everyone will be able to create scoring opportunities, the reachable par 4s and par 5s set up well for a strong, long driving type to dismantle the course and make easy birdies in bunches.

Though Wiesberger would never be described quite as a bomber, he was certainly more power than accuracy when winning in 2019, though over the last two years has started to find more accuracy off-the-tee. He was excellent across the board last year, as you’d expect for such a comfortable victory but it was the ball-striking that stood out, as he ranked 3rd in approach and 6th off-the-tee.

He was chased home by Guido Migliozzi, someone again more about power, who relied on some strong approach play, ranking 10th and a good week on the greens, ranking 5th. Whilst that typically varied leaderboard was on show in those who finished tied for 3rd. As we had the more accurate Jason Scrivener and Richard Bland, who also showed quality with the short-game, tied with Jordan Smith, who is an excellent ball-striker who possesses plenty of power.

The 2019 edition is the only other year of this event for which we have anything remotely resembling reliable stats. Wiesberger wasn’t quite as impressive when winning this tougher renewal, though showed how far quality approach play goes around here, as he ranked 3rd in approach, by far his best stat of the week.

His closest challengers were Robert MacIntyre and Romain Langasque, both players who have excelled with the driver and don’t lack for power, for all MacIntyre hasn’t been quite as good this year. That week they ranked 6th and 7th respectively off-the-tee, whilst both married that with a strong short-game, MacIntyre ranking 3rd in scrambling and 5th on the greens, Langasque ranking 1st in scrambling and 3rd on the greens.

As mentioned, stats aren’t great prior to this event. Though there is one thing that stands out in relation with these later renewals, and that’s the need for a strong scrambling week. There are no stats available for winner, Julian Suri in 2017 but 2nd place finisher that year, David Horsey, ranked 15th in scrambling, whilst 3rd place finishers Ben Evans and Chris Paisley ranked 9th and 2nd.

 In 2016, each of the top 4 ranked inside the top 6 in scrambling. Winner, Thomas Pieters ranked 2nd, runner-up Bradley Dredge was 3rd and 3rd place finishers Adrian Otaegui and David Lipsky ranked 6th and 1st respectively.

Whilst the putter has been important, there are plenty of non-putters to have won and gone well here, so I won’t put too much emphasis in that stat this week.

Key Stats: SG: OTT, SG: Approach, Scrambling

Secondary Stats: Driving Distance

Correlating Courses

There are plenty of courses that correlate with this week’s venue; from more exposed, shall we say ‘linksy’ setups, to the shorter courses with risk/reward opportunities aplenty. I’ve narrowed it down to these six with the best form-ties.

Austrian Open @ Diamond Country Club

Diamond Country Club is a tough tee-to-green test that has seen both longer hitters and straighter types achieve success.

Bernd Wiesberger and Marc Warren have both won here at HimmerLand and at Diamond Country Club, whilst David Horsey, another past champion here, has finished 2nd. In addition to this, Adrian Otaegui has finished 2nd there whilst finishing 3rd and Himmerland, with further form-ties found from Kristoffer Broberg and Richard Bland, both with top 3s here and top 10s in Austria.

Omega European Masters @ Crans-sur-Sierre

Whilst a more claustrophobic tree-lined course, Crans has that similar appeal to all types and with risk/reward opportunities on show in spades, has developed strong form-ties with HimmerLand.

Bradley Dredge is a past winner there, whilst possessing those two runner-up finishes here. Wiesberger finished 2nd at Crans last year and Warren also has a top 10 there, with David Lipsky, 3rd here in 2016, a past champion of the Euro Masters.

Wales Open @ Celtic Manor Resort

Celtic Manor’s Twenty-Ten course is a much longer and more brutish test than this week’s course but is an exposed course that requires a similarly strong T2G game to perform.

Thomas Pieters, David Horsey and Marc Warren have all recorded a top 6 or better in Wales. Whilst Bradley Dredge has a runner-up finish, with Soren Kjeldsen and Jason Scrivener also possessing top 10s.

Soudal Open @ Rinkven International

Rinkven International hosted the Belgian Knockout in 2018 & 2019, returning this year to host the Soudal Open. At under 7000 yards it’s a short course, with risk/reward opportunities on show throughout.

Guido Migliozzi and Adrian Otaegui have both won there, with finishes of 2nd and 3rd here at HimmerLand respectively. Jeff Winther and Benjamin Hebert strengthen the form-ties with top 10s at both venues.

Abu Dhabi Championship @ Abu Dhabi Golf Club

Abu Dhabi Golf Club is an exposed course that hosted the Abu Dhabi Championship up until this year. Scoring is typically low and it has developed strong correlating form with HimmerLand.

Wiesberger and Pieters have each recorded multiple top 10s in Abu Dhabi, whilst Horsey and Warren have also recorded one apiece. Jason Scrivener appears again, with a 2nd place finish, along with David Lipsky and Soren Kjeldsen, who have both finished 5th at Abu Dhabi GC.

BMW International Open @ Golfclub Munchen Eichenried

Golfclub Munchen Eichenried has hosted many editions of the BMW International Open prior to 2012, then in 2013/15/17/19/21/22. Scoring is typically low and it is a course littered with risk/reward opportunities.

David Horsey is a past champion there, whilst Bernd Wiesberger and Thomas Pieters have finished top 5. Bradley Dredge has a 3rd place finish there, Richard Bland has finished 2nd and David Lipsky once again ties the form in with a top 10 in Germany.

The Weather

Fine golfing conditions are on show at the start of the week, with no rain and little wind in-play over the first two rounds. This changes over the weekend, as the wind steps up to around 15mph, enough to cause problems and added to some rain on Sunday, could toughen the course up over the weekend.

The Field

Though not as strong as last week, this week’s field has plenty of depth. Adri Arnaus is the top ranked player in the field at #67 in the world, joined by Pablo Larrazabal, Nicolai Hojgaard and following his victory last week, Thriston Lawrence from the world’s top 10.

With the Hojgaard twins, Robert MacIntyre and Matt Wallace, amongst others, strengthening this field.

One glaring omission will be current champion, Bernd Wiesberger, who will likely be heading to this week’s LIV Golf event in Boston instead.

Selections

The market is wide open this week, with Matt Wallace topping the betting after last week’s playoff disappointment and followed by the man who bested him in that playoff, Thriston Lawrence.

There’s a whole host of players at 33/1 or shorter and my pick of them is Romain Lanagasque, who missed the cut when we backed him last week, though with nothing looking too amiss, I’m happy to put that down to a lack of sharpness following his absence and expect him to bounce back this week.

My belief that Langasque can bounce back here at HimmerLand is not just routed in the fact he has previously recorded a 3rd place finish here but that on two previous occasions this year he’s followed missed cuts with a top 10 next time out.

Langasque only missed the cut by two last week and looked good in most aspects, particularly off-the-tee, though had a couple of days to forget with the irons. Something I’m hoping he’ll rectify this week.

I’m confident he can do this as despite being a little inconsistent, Langasque has produced plenty of quality approach play this season and ranks 16th on the DPWT. He marries this with a strong scrambling game, ranking 5th and is typically a good driver of the ball, whilst he doesn’t lack for distance. Which makes him an attractive fit for the profile I’m looking for.

Aside from his 3rd here in 2019, Langasque’s record at HimmerLand is a little underwhelming, having finished 65th and missed the cut on two other visits. However I’m sure that 3rd wasn’t a one-off, as with a victory in Wales, along with top 10s at the BMW International Open and at Crans, he possesses some compelling correlating form.

Before last week’s missed cut, Langasque was on a run of eight straight cuts made, with three of them top 10s. That missed cut came following a month off; I’m expecting him to have blown the cobwebs off there and be ready contend here this week in Denmark.

Marcus Armitage is enjoying an impressively consistent year. He comes here off the back of finding something with the driver last week and if he can combine that with the other areas of his game that had been firing over recent months, he can improve on his excellent 8th place finish in this event last year.

Armitage’s consistent year has seen him miss just two cuts in eighteen, producing eight top 25 finishes and three top 10s, which came courtesy of a 9th place finish in Ras Al Khaimah at the start of the year, a 5th place finish in the Qatar Masters and a 9th place finish just two starts ago in the correlating Cazoo Open at Celtic Manor.

Playing well tee-to-green all year, where he ranks 12th, it’s largely been the putter that had hindered Marcus in picking up DPWT win #2 after he won the European Open last year. However, before last week, he’d gained strokes on his four most recent starts on the greens, though unfortunately his typically solid driving had deserted him.

With that returning last week I’m hoping he can regain that recent upturn in form with the putter and combine them both with an iron game that ranks amongst the best on the DPWT, seeing him rank 2nd this season.

This is what helped him to that 8th place finish last year, an excellent week in approach, good on the greens and solid off-the-tee. An improvement on his previous form here, where he finished 41st in 2017 and 53rd in the 2018 tournament on the Challenge Tour. In addition to this Armitage has a 4th place finish in Austria, a 7th in the European Masters and that 9th at the Wales Open this year. We can even look to his two other top 10s on tour this season and indeed his win last year, all played on similarly exposed courses.

Despite being consistent, Armitage hasn’t been able to contend as much as he’d have liked this year. With all relevant areas of his game showing positive signs in recent starts, I’m hoping he can produce that first real contending performance of the year this week at HimmerLand.

Renato Paratore continues to produce positive results. I’m hoping he can use that big hitting and strong short-game to finally turn those strong performances into a victory this week.

Paratore’s upturn in form came four starts ago with that flying finish in the Cazoo Open to finish 3rd. He followed that with 4th in Northern Ireland next time out, 13th in the Czech Masters two starts ago and a 29th place finish at Crans last week.

The theme of Paratore’s improved form had been taming that erratic ball-striking that underpinned his poor year prior to these last four events and showing real quality on and around the greens.

This was on show last week as Paratore ranked 5th in putting and 12th in scrambling, and though he reverted to some slightly more erratic driving, he produced one of his better approach performances of the year. Which I found hugely encouraging coming into this event.

Paratore has a top 20 here, finishing 18th in 2016, though his form outside of that visit leaves a lot to be desired, with two missed cuts and a 71st. However he does make up for this with an abundance of correlating form, with top 10s in the European Masters, Wales Open and BMW International Open, as well as strong showings in Austria.

Despite his consistently good form of late, Paratore’s price stays roughly the same and continuing to show high-class performances with the short-game, whilst finding further improvements with the long game, he can continue that recent form this week.

Good, lengthy driver with an excellent short-game, who comes into this event off the back of a much improved iron performance last week. George Coetzee ticked plenty of boxes for me and he can make up for a missed cut at the course on his only previous visit in 2019.

That improved approach performance helped Coetzee on his way to a 16th place finish in his first start on the DPWT in six weeks.

When we last saw him on tour he’d been a little out of form, with it showing little sign of improvement. This maybe playing a part in his decision to head back home to play a couple of events on the Sunshine Tour in South Africa.

This looks to have been well worth his time as he won the first of those events, opening that tournament with a sublime 61 and then followed with a 4th in a team event, before returning to the DPWT and producing that 16th place finish that was his best since March. Clearly having his confidence boosted by the win in South Africa.

Coetzee ranks 26th on tour this season in scrambling and 32nd off-the-tee, whilst hist approach performance last week was his 2nd best of the year. This gives me plenty of confidence that the missed cut in 2019 isn’t a true representation of how he can go around here. With strong form in Abu Dhabi, where he’s finished top 10 on three occasions and a 3rd place finish in the BMW International emphasising that point.

Coetzee is a proven winner at this level, with five DPWT victories to his name, the most recent of them in coming in Portugal in 2020. He has the game to go well here, arriving with his confidence boosted and off the back of a strong week with the irons, he looks a big danger.

I’m hoping it’s a case of third time lucky on Gavin Green, who rallied well after a slow start last week to finish 38th, signing off the week with a joint-best round of the day 64 on Sunday. This was a good response to the disappointment he faced in the Czech Masters and with him maintaining form with his irons, he can go well again this week.

That finish last week means Green is now 5/5 in made cuts on his last five starts, with his 38th place finish following on from two consecutive 2nds.

Green’s improved form had been engineered by general improvements across the board but what was once again eye-catching there was that this big-hitting, strong putter was at his best in approach, something he replicated from that runner-up finish in the Czech Masters. The driver was a little more wayward, though that shouldn’t be as much of an issue this week and the putter remained solid. Add that to a strong season ranking of 14th in scrambling and he ticks plenty of boxes in Denmark.

This hasn’t translated to his two visits so far, as he’s missed the cut both times. Though last year his game was in no sort of shape. He does have a good record at Rinkven, recording two top 10s and also has a top 10 in Wales. Which tells me he is capable of much better around this venue.

With rounds of 64 & 66 last week, Green showed that there wasn’t too much hangover from what happened in Czechia and if he can keep up the strong approach play, he looks a player on another course with should suit.

Lucas Bjerregaard produced an excellent 3rd place finish in Wales two starts ago, a result which came out of the blue following a poor year up until that point. He showed quality right across his game in that finish and though missing the cut last week, he was only 1-shot short, showing enough quality that made me feel he was worth taking this week.

Though the short-game wasn’t quite up to scratch at Crans, the ball-striking was very good again and much improved on what he’s shown this year so far, the area of his game which had looked by far the most concerning so far. So I’m more confident in his ability to rectify the short-game which has fired intermittently this year, than I am in him finding a sudden improved ball-striking performance.

Bjerregaard has plenty of experience here, playing five times and recording a best of 28th. He adds to this with a good record in the European Masters, with finishes of 2nd and 9th, whilst that 3rd in Wales two starts ago works well. As does his 7th place finish in Austria.

It would be easy to dismiss his excellent performance in Wales as an anomaly when looking at his missed cut last week, which would appear to show a return to his previously poor form. Though with the quality of the ball-striking I was happy to chance him here and if he does indeed keep that up, whilst finding one of those strong week’s on and around-the-greens that he can find, this two-time tour winner and classy player would look a very lively outsider in his home championship.