
Luton vs Aston Villa Prediction and Betting Tips: Two data driven picks from Kenilworth Road

Luton are aiming to put their midweek mauling at the hands of Manchester City behind them when they take on Aston Villa in the Premier League this weekend. We've got our man Scott Thornton on hand to preview the action and provide us with his best bets.
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The Hatters felt the sharp sting of Erling Haaland as the striker netted five times to help Pep Guardiola’s side secure a 6-2 victory and a place in the quarter-finals of the FA Cup on Wednesday. Luton’s attention now turns to the league where they face an uphill battle to retain their status as a top-flight team.
Aston Villa are enjoying a marvellous season. They have gone from strength to strength since opting to appoint Unai Emery to take over as manager. The former Arsenal boss helped Villa secure a European place last season and they are strong contenders to qualify for the Champions League this time around.
Marvelous Nakamba and Mads Andersen are ruled out for the hosts. Tom Lockyer is also unavailable following his health scare against Bournemouth a few months ago.
Emery has a host of injuries and injury doubts in defence. Tyrone Mings and Diego Carlos will miss this match. Ezri Konsa and Pau Torres face late fitness tests.
Luton vs Aston Villa Tips
Luton are seven points ahead of both Burnley and Sheffield United, their fellow newly-promoted sides. Still, they are four points from safety. Nottingham Forest are their closest rival and a surprise win over Villa would massively improve their chances of remaining in the Premier League.
Aston Villa have recorded back-to-back victories which has seen them move five points ahead of Tottenham in the race for the top four. Ange Postecoglou’s side have a game in hand there is no room for complacency but they will be delighted with their position as we enter the final months of the campaign.
The Villains look to compress the pitch when their opponents have the ball. They have adopted an extremely high defensive line since Emery took the reins and this has meant Villa force a huge amount of offsides from the opposition. As a result, our first betting angle for this clash is over 5.5 offsides for both teams combined.
Villa are forcing an average of 4.85 offsides per game in the Premier League with an overall match average of 5.92. This rises to 6.77 in their games on the road. There have been six offsides or more in Emery’s side’s last five away league matches.
Luton’s matches are averaging a very ordinary 3.52 offsides in this campaign. However, Rob Edwards’ side were caught offside six times in the reverse fixture.
Our longer odds bet is also relying on offsides with an increased line of over 6.5 in the match, but we will also be backing both teams to receive 2+ cards.
Aston Villa’s matches have seen the 4th most cards in the Premier League with an average of 5.46 per game with the distribution evenly split at 2.73 for Villa and their opponents.
Luton matches have seen an average of just 3.88 cards per game but there has been a few more of late as the reality of the relegation scrap sets in. There were eight yellow cards in their last league home match against Manchester United and both teams have received two or more cards in three of their last four Premier League matches at Kenilworth Road.
Aston Villa picked up three cards and Luton were given two in the reverse fixture.
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