Leeds vs Southampton Prediction and Betting Tips: Best bets for Championship Play-Off Final

The cliched most expensive game in football takes centre stage on Sunday as Leeds take on Southampton in the Championship Play-Off Final.

Jimmy The Punt is our man for the big occasion, arming himself with these two tips for this weekend's spectacular second tier finale.

It is fitting that the third and fourth best side over the course of the season square off at Wembley. 

Both are vying for an instant return to the Premier League and all the riches the top flight entails. The loser stares down the barrel at another season in the second tier.  

Leeds looked for large parts of the campaign that they would secure automatic promotion. A challenge built on a faultless defence which came to fruition in late winter as United only conceded one goal in nine games at the start of the year.  

However, Daniel Farke’s side capitulated late on taking just eight points from the last 24 on offer. The Leeds boss did well to gee his side back up during the play-off campaign as United beat Norwich convincingly.  

Southampton were 500/1 on April 11th to win the title because they were 10 points off it but that price crumbled as results went their way and for a second, it looked like they might have crashed the promotion party.  

Results tailed off for Russell Martin’s side allowing the Saints to focus on the play-offs which stands them in good stead, as their manager loves his detail and thrives with plenty of time to prepare.  

Why is it the most expensive game in football? Well because the winning team gets around £265m additional income in TV money, sponsorship deals, etc.

What does this mean for the spectacle? Well as recent history shows, it has a dire effect on the quality of the game. Of the 23 finals since the turn of the millennium, a staggering 69% have seen two or fewer goals, 13 under 1.5 and four have ended goalless after 90 minutes.  

When you consider what is at stake, it is hardly surprising. Admittedly, these two sides do threaten to buck this tame trend.

The Saints have shipped 63 goals this term, more than one a game and 20 more than Leeds. The pair have also scored the third and fourth most goals in the division (168 combined). It is why we are getting the prices available on a lack of goals. I am just hoping they play the occasions and not the side in front of them because the value is clearly with unders.

Leeds are expected to play Georginio Rutter, Crysencio Summerville and Willy Gnonto in behind Joel Piroe on Sunday. The trio combine to draw an average of 5.7 fouls a game which puts Saints defensive midfielder Flynn Downes under some pressure.

Kenny McLean was booked in the second leg of the semi’s against Leeds and Will Smallbone and Shea Charles were carded when the sides met domestically.  

With 10 yellows, 1.8 tackles and 1.2 fouls a game, Downes clearly is not afraid to get stuck in and could come unstuck against Leeds mercurial trio.  

Best of luck if you are backing any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.