Japan vs Samoa Betting Tips: Two predictions for Thursday's Rugby World Cup match
Posted: 11:21 Wednesday 27th September 2023
Japan and Samoa head into Thursday's Rugby World Cup clash knowing a victory will give them a huge boost of possibly reaching the knockout stages of the tournament and the match in Toulouse on Thursday evening is set to be a rip-snorting contest. England are the dominant figure in Pool D, but with Argentina struggling for any form then both Samoa (second) and Japan (third) know a bonus point victory here could be the catalyst for qualification.
Our man Steve Chambers previews the event, which is an attractive betting heat, and he picks out his best bets for what should be a real quality encounter between two passionate nations...
Japan v Samoa Tips
Samoa to win by 6-10 points
Calculators could be needed to decide who joins England in the knockout stages of Pool D as while England fly high on 14 points after three games both Japan and Samoa have five points and Argentina four after two matches. So, Thursday's tussle between Japan v Samoa will see one all-but end their qualification hopes, while the winner will have a huge chance of making the last eight.
The bookmakers have installed Samoa as the clear 8/15 favourites, with Japan available at 6/4 and the draw on offer at 22/1. Samoa are entitled to be favourites as they have won 13 of the previous 17 matches against Japan and that included a narrow 24-22 win in Sapporo just two months ago. However, Samoa, who suffered defeat to Argentina last weekend, are very little value in the win market, so it's worth venturing into the winning margin betting and there's much more improved value available for punters there.
With the sides playing out such a close contest last time out then a repeat of that 1-5 point win here is available at 11/2, but it would be no shock to see the Samoans just pull clear of their Japanese rivals in the closing stages of the contest and the 5/1 for a 6-10 point victory for Samoa looks the way to go. Japan had the benefit of a week off last week, so they will be fresh and raring to go, but Samoa's physicality could just see them have too much for their adversaries on Thursday night and they can set up a final game with England, who could well rest players for the knockout stages.
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Duncan Paia'aua Anytime Tryscorer
Samoa got off to the worst possible start in their 19-10 defeat to Argentina as full-back Duncan Paia'aua was sent to the sin bin in the first minute, but the Toulon star is set to bounce back from that disappointment and at 5/2 he's a cracking bet to score a try at any time. The former Australia U20 star will start in the 15 jersey once again and he showed when scoring Samoa's first try in a 43-10 win over Chile earlier in the tournament that he's one of the attacking sparks in the back line.
As big as 16/1 with bet365 to score the first try of this match, it's much safer to stick with the 5/2 about Paia'aua scoring at any time during the 80 minutes as he will be cropping up all over the pitch in attack and could quite easily find some holes in the Japanese defence.
This encounter may not see any of the Rugby World Cup heavyweights doing battle, but it's set to be a really fiercely contested clash on Thursday evening in Toulouse and it should be a really cagey affair in the early part of the game, before Samoa finally show their dominance in the forwards and break down the brave Japanese outfit that could see their World Cup dreams crushed in their third match of the tournament.
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