Japan vs Argentina Betting Tips: Two predictions for winner takes all clash

Despite many proclamations that they would struggle at this tournament from pundits and tipsters alike (including this silly scribe), England have serenely sailed through Pool D at the Rugby World Cup as group winners. Japan and Argentina will on Sunday afternoon battle it out for the right to qualify with the Red Rose and it promises to be a fascinating clash of styles. Billy Grimshaw is on hand with his two best bets for this do-or-die encounter...

The odds compilers are judging Argentina on the pre-tournament hype here in my opinion. Unfortunately for my antepost rugby portfolio, I have an each-way ticket with Los Pumas name on it as I was convinced they would put in a best ever performance in France and would really challenge England for top spot in Pool D. How wrong I was. The Argentinians began their campaign with a shockingly ill disciplined performance to lose 27-10 to England despite the Red Rose not scoring a try, before somewhat steadying the ship with an unconvincing 19-10 win over Samoa.

They then thumped their outclassed South American neighbours Chile in what must've been a confidence boosting win, but the fact of the matter is they've looked way off their best all tournament and Michael Cheika must be worrying his side will once again flounder against the Cherry Blossoms of Japan. Two more contrasting styles of rugby one could not hope to see as the Argentinians will rely on brute force and their scrummaging game while Japan will attempt to move the ball at every opportunity.

Argentina are as short as 1/8 in the marketplace while Japan are dangling at a tempting 5/1 with SpreadEx. For any punters who fancy the draw, they can get 33/1 which is widely available.

As I have outlined above, I am not convinced this Argentina team are playing anywhere near their potential and although it was more like it against Chile, their opponents that day would struggle in most second tier club competitions. Japan also brushed them aside and although their game with Samoa was slightly closer on the scoreboard than that of the Argentinians, the games were neck and neck on the field which leads me to think this game could well be a real nail-biter.

Something that could be crucial in keeping this game tight is the form of both kickers, and there is arguably no-one in world rugby kicking from the tee better right now than Japanese fly half Rikiya Matsuda. He is not just a dab hand with the tee, his in-play kicking game and marshalling of his troops from number 10 will be crucial if Japan are to fashion points scoring opportunities. They showed against England that they have the talent with ball in hand to score points and I'm unconvinced by Argentina both in attack and defence.

Another reason I like Japan to cover the handicap line is their lack of switching in the starting fifteen. While Los Pumas rested plenty for the defeat of Chile last week, the reserves actually looked more cohesive than the A team and with eleven changes being made I'd be worried about their continuity. Japan on the other hand have made just one change from their last outing, that crucial win over Samoa, and that change is on the wings. Rotating your squad at a World Cup is key but finding a winning thread is even more important so it'll be interesting to see if the full strength Pumas look any less clunky.

The more I research and study this game, the more I like the chances of the Japanese to cause an upset. Argentina undoubtedly have more World Cup pedigree, being two times semi finalists compared to just the once for the Cherry Blossoms. However, with the way both teams have player so far in this tournament I expected the pricing to be closer to 1/3 plays 5/2. Getting double the price I think is fair about a Japanese victory means I simply have to take a small wager on them triumphing and booking their quarter final spot.

In the battle of the fly halves I think the aforementioned Japanese Rikiya Matsuda is a real star and as alluded to earlier in the preview, his pinpoint accuracy when awarded a penalty anywhere in shooting range could prove vital. Argentina welcome back their own star fly half in Santiago Carreras and he will be instrumental for Los Pumas, but at the prices the bet simply has to be Japan to win.

With the bonus point system this game going down to the wire and resulting in a draw would require some mathematical expertise to see who qualifies judging on the score at the time and indeed the result between England and Samoa. This is an unlikely outcome at 33/1 however, but Japan taking the win in a historic match is not so unlikely and should be backed.