Eurovision 2023 Odds & Betting Preview: Finland an appealing bet at 7/2
With the Grand Final of Eurovision 2023 happening on Liverpool on Saturday night, we continue to have two main frontrunners to lift the Crystal trophy – Loreen from Sweden and Käärijä from Finland.
There is also potential for an entry that scores consistently with both juries and televote to come through and surprise. The Big 5 and Top 10 markets are also very much alive, and Eurovision is never short of surprises. Our Eurovision expert tom Davitt has been at the event in Liverpool all week and has provided us with his thoughts on the current betting market.
Sweden have been odds-on favourites ever since their staging concept dropped late February during their National Final rehearsals. Loreen won in 2012 with her electronic pop song “Euphoria” and she’s back with a similar sound but also with more spectacular staging, aiming for a record-equalling 7th win for her country. Sweden is almost definite to win the jury vote, based on their history of being Top-3 in the juries in four of the last five years, and also easily winning the largest mock jury poll, Eurojury, conducted within the community before the contest. But despite their recent excellent results in their jury scoring, Sweden have not been Top 5 in the televote since they last won in 2015.
This could be due to their entries being almost too polished, with flashy lighting production and props being sent yearly in a predictable manner. However, where previous entries may have felt over rehearsed, Loreen brings intense emotion and rawness in addition to her heavily produced & spectacular staging. Whatever the reason for Sweden’s televote troubles, this is something Loreen has to conquer if she wants to win again, as nobody has won Eurovision from outside the Top 2 in the televote since split results were broadcast in 2016.
Finland is a more appealing bet to win or both-ways at 7/2. Käärijä’s Finnish rap/metal schlager song with spectacular staging is a heavy odds-on favourite to win the televote, and likely by a significant margin. Finland’s running order placement suggests that they won their Semi-Final as expected, which was decided only by televote.
He has a fantastic placement, with his upbeat party song coming after 5 darker, intense entries in a row. This change of pace really stuck out in the Dress Rehearsal. This is what many people tune into Eurovision to watch – a crazy Finnish rapper wearing an electric green bolero riding a train of ballroom dancers.
His downfall could be the more conservative jury, who tend to mark down humorous or outrageous entries. No-one has won from outside the Top 4 of the juries since 2016, so the more Käärijä is dragged down by this, the larger his televote needs to become. However, Jury members may feel peer pressured into marking this up with all its media hype, not wanting to feel out of touch.
Other countries could eat into his televote haul, such as Croatia, who created waves in their Semi-final with their bombastic anti-dictator psychedelic staging, which is currently the most viewed performance on YouTube. Finland haven’t won since 2006 and huge efforts have been put into every aspect of this at all levels. It boils down to this – can Finland’s televote compensate for a reduced jury score?
If you want to bet on a longer odds winner, this one has the most reasonable path to a victory.
A winner coming from outside those 2 is possible, but the only scenario I see it happening is that Käärijä does poorly with the jury & then the public continue their relative disdain for Swedish staging by ranking them too low in the televote. Then a dark horse who does well in both can come through and win.
This happened in 2019 with Duncan Laurence, who was 3rd in the jury and 2nd in the televote, and also with Ukraine in 2016, who were 2nd in both. Ukraine were 3rd in the odds pre-show – with the eventual televote winner, Russia, and jury winner Australia, being 1st and 2nd respectively above her.
Potential countries who could do this are France, Spain, Italy & Israel. Of these, France are the highest in the odds to win, but their running order slot of 6 being so early could be difficult for them. Spain could score highly in the jury, but the televote for this unique flamenco lullaby is incredibly unpredictable. Israel should do well with both televote and jury, but I can’t envisage them getting Top 3 with both.
Italy have an excellent running order slot in 11th and their ballad, sung by one of their biggest stars, Marco Mengoni, should do very well with the juries. This ballad is unlikely to do as well with the televote however. Norway have one of the best running order slots in 20th, although their staging lacks a risky X-Factor element, which seems necessary in recent years to win. Ukraine sit 3rd in the odds, I believe largely due to a belief that their record haul of 439 points last year could be reproduced. Ukraine’s staging is slick & cool, as always, but I think the song is not strong enough to win this time around.
Honestly, with all these dark horse countries, my suggestion would be to look at the Top 10 and regional markets for them.
Another thing to look out for is the Big 5, which are having their strongest year ever. These performances wont have been seen by the public in full yet, so this is a good market to jump on as soon as the song has performed. France, Italy and Spain are all outsiders to win, and definite contenders for Top 10.
Germany could also surprise, with the glam rock explosion from veteran band Lord of the Lost, who have supported Iron Maiden on tour. It’s towards the end of the show and has the potential to do some damage in the televote.
