Odds shown as:

PartyGate: Is this finally the end of Boris and his stooges?

Will Boris be recreating this scene in the near future, against his will?
Will Boris be recreating this scene in the near future, against his will?

Well, the day has finally arrived. The day all sane people knew would come. The day the Metropolitan Police service has shown a bit of backbone, and found the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, and the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak to have broken lockdown rules over parties.

A total of 50 fines have been issued against Number 10, since the investigations into alleged parties were splashed over the papers. The PM has repeatedly told the Commons that he had no knowledge of any parties. But then, it was that he had knowledge but didn’t attend. But then wasn’t he ambushed with a cake? But all guidelines were followed, definitely. In fact, let’s just wait for the Sue Gray report, but that can’t be sent until the police have completed a thorough investigation.

Of course, he’s been caught out.

Is anyone surprised?
Is anyone surprised?

Not only has he lied to the house (a small matter of breaching the ministerial code, which should normally result in resignation), he’s lied to the country. To myself, to you, to your loved ones. Those of us who lost loved ones, who were able to be in a room of 10 at a funeral, who couldn’t say goodbye to those who meant most to us. Meanwhile, the men who made the rules were breaking them. Oh yes, did I mention Rishi Sunak was fined as well?

But what, if anything, will happen? As can be expected, they will both come out and blatantly not answer questions about lying, pointing to the fact that there’s unfortunately a war in Ukraine, that they will deem a bigger story. And in the grand scheme of things, it obviously isn’t, and whilst Boris has done well so far with regards to supporting Ukraine, he cannot be allowed to continue in this role.

We’ve taken a look at the odds of a number of markets, and allowed @petemarsden_ to rant his way through.

Boris Johnson Exit Date Odds

2024 Or Later
WIN PROB: 50%
1
£30 FREE BET
1/1
£30 FREE BET
1/1
£30 FREE BET
£20 FREE BET
£100 FREE BET
2022
WIN PROB: 29%
1
£30 FREE BET
£20 FREE BET
£30 FREE BET
£30 FREE BET
£20 FREE BET
6/4
£100 FREE BET
6/4
2023
WIN PROB: 20%
1
£30 FREE BET
4/1
£20 FREE BET
4/1
£100 FREE BET
4/1
£30 FREE BET
£30 FREE BET
7/2
£20 FREE BET
2/5
2020
WIN PROB: 20%
Odds correct as of 2022-05-18 17:40 Odds subject to change.

We’ll start off in what could potentially be the most current market at the moment. At the time of writing, Boris is as short as 13/8 to leave in 2022. That price has come in from around 3/1 on Tuesday morning, so obviously some shortening following the breaking news. Now in a normal democracy where leaders had a shred of integrity, Mr. Johnson would be driving up to Buckingham Palace to let Lizzy know that he can no longer continue in this position. But, as we all know, he’s not going to do that. 

As ITV’s Paul Brand mentions below, there are a number of things that the PM will look to use to let this scandal blow over, with the main one being the current Russian invasion of Ukraine. But, in my opinion, he surely can’t continue.

However, if he does get away with it, which considering his track record, he may just do, then I can’t see him leaving in 2023 (3/1), unless he literally goes and murders the Queen live on tele, that’s the stage we seem to be at in this country.

So, that leaves us with 2024 or later, currently odds-on in the betting. This goes hand in hand with the odds for the date of the next general election, which is also odds-on with seemingly all bookmakers. The key to whether he leaves or not will be seen in the upcoming week, and how many Tory MP’s will rally around him, or go to the 1922 Committee.

Next Permanent Party Leader

Liz Truss
WIN PROB: 14%
1
£30 FREE BET
£30 FREE BET
6/1
£30 FREE BET
£20 FREE BET
5/1
£100 FREE BET
5/1
£40 FREE BET
5/1
£30 FREE BET
9/2
£20 FREE BET
4/1
Jeremy Hunt
WIN PROB: 12%
1
£30 FREE BET
£20 FREE BET
6/1
£30 FREE BET
6/1
£40 FREE BET
6/1
£30 FREE BET
£30 FREE BET
5/1
£20 FREE BET
5/1
£100 FREE BET
5/1
Tom Tugendhat
WIN PROB: 7%
1
£20 FREE BET
£30 FREE BET
8/1
£30 FREE BET
£30 FREE BET
7/1
£30 FREE BET
6/1
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6/1
£20 FREE BET
£100 FREE BET
Rishi Sunak
WIN PROB: 7%
1
£30 FREE BET
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£30 FREE BET
9/1
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9/1
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9/1
£40 FREE BET
9/1
£20 FREE BET
Ben Wallace
WIN PROB: 3%
1
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£30 FREE BET
9/1
£30 FREE BET
8/1
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6/1
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6/1
£100 FREE BET
6/1
£40 FREE BET
6/1
Penny Mordaunt
WIN PROB: 6%
1
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9/1
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9/1
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9/1
£40 FREE BET
9/1
£30 FREE BET
8/1
Sajid Javid
WIN PROB: 5%
1
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£30 FREE BET
Nadhim Zahawi
WIN PROB: 5%
1
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Michael Gove
WIN PROB: 5%
1
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David Frost
WIN PROB: 4%
1
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Dominic Raab
WIN PROB: 3%
1
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Priti Patel
WIN PROB: 2%
1
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Steve Baker
WIN PROB: 3%
1
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Tobias Ellwood
WIN PROB: 2%
1
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Mark Harper
WIN PROB: 2%
1
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Kemi Badenoch
WIN PROB: 2%
1
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Johnny Mercer
WIN PROB: 2%
1
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Steve Barclay
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Jacob Rees-Mogg
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Stephen Barclay
WIN PROB: 2%
1
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Neil OBrien
WIN PROB: 2%
Kwasi Kwarteng
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Oliver Dowden
WIN PROB: 1%
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James Cleverly
WIN PROB: 1%
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Alok Sharma
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Grant Shapps
WIN PROB: 1%
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Lucy Frazer
WIN PROB: 1%
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Graham Brady
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Brandon Lewis
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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William Wragg
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Bim Afolami
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Matthew Hancock
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Nigel Farage
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Rory Stewart
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Esther Mcvey
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Robert Jenrick
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Daniel Hannan
WIN PROB: 1%
Andrea Jenkyns
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Iain Duncan Smith
WIN PROB: 1%
Robert Halfon
WIN PROB: 1%
Greg Clark
WIN PROB: 1%
George Freeman
WIN PROB: 1%
Greg Hands
WIN PROB: 1%
Chloe Smith
WIN PROB: 1%
Ben Bradley
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Anne Marie Trevelyan
WIN PROB: 1%
Kit Malthouse
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Phillip Hammond
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Victoria Atkins
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Damian Hinds
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Helen Whately
WIN PROB: 1%
Claire Coutinho
WIN PROB: 1%
Julian Smith
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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David Davis
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Ruth Davidson
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Therese Coffey
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Theresa Villiers
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Suella Braverman
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Gillian Keegan
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Liam Fox
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Matt Hancock
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Andrea Leadsom
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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George Osborne
WIN PROB: 0%