PartyGate: Is this finally the end of Boris and his stooges?
Well, the day has finally arrived. The day all sane people knew would come. The day the Metropolitan Police service has shown a bit of backbone, and found the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, and the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak to have broken lockdown rules over parties.
A total of 50 fines have been issued against Number 10, since the investigations into alleged parties were splashed over the papers. The PM has repeatedly told the Commons that he had no knowledge of any parties. But then, it was that he had knowledge but didn’t attend. But then wasn’t he ambushed with a cake? But all guidelines were followed, definitely. In fact, let’s just wait for the Sue Gray report, but that can’t be sent until the police have completed a thorough investigation.
Of course, he’s been caught out.
Not only has he lied to the house (a small matter of breaching the ministerial code, which should normally result in resignation), he’s lied to the country. To myself, to you, to your loved ones. Those of us who lost loved ones, who were able to be in a room of 10 at a funeral, who couldn’t say goodbye to those who meant most to us. Meanwhile, the men who made the rules were breaking them. Oh yes, did I mention Rishi Sunak was fined as well?
But what, if anything, will happen? As can be expected, they will both come out and blatantly not answer questions about lying, pointing to the fact that there’s unfortunately a war in Ukraine, that they will deem a bigger story. And in the grand scheme of things, it obviously isn’t, and whilst Boris has done well so far with regards to supporting Ukraine, he cannot be allowed to continue in this role.
We’ve taken a look at the odds of a number of markets, and allowed @petemarsden_ to rant his way through.
Boris Johnson Exit Date Odds
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50%
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29.4%
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20%
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20%
We’ll start off in what could potentially be the most current market at the moment. At the time of writing, Boris is as short as 13/8 to leave in 2022. That price has come in from around 3/1 on Tuesday morning, so obviously some shortening following the breaking news. Now in a normal democracy where leaders had a shred of integrity, Mr. Johnson would be driving up to Buckingham Palace to let Lizzy know that he can no longer continue in this position. But, as we all know, he’s not going to do that.
As ITV’s Paul Brand mentions below, there are a number of things that the PM will look to use to let this scandal blow over, with the main one being the current Russian invasion of Ukraine. But, in my opinion, he surely can’t continue.
Three things help Boris Johnson:
1. Ukraine - MPs reluctant to change PM during war
2. His potential successors - most notably Rishi Sunak - bogged down in their own scandals
3. Met Police timing - MPs have had chance to calm down since the initial rage
However, if he does get away with it, which considering his track record, he may just do, then I can’t see him leaving in 2023 (3/1), unless he literally goes and murders the Queen live on tele, that’s the stage we seem to be at in this country.
So, that leaves us with 2024 or later, currently odds-on in the betting. This goes hand in hand with the odds for the date of the next general election, which is also odds-on with seemingly all bookmakers. The key to whether he leaves or not will be seen in the upcoming week, and how many Tory MP’s will rally around him, or go to the 1922 Committee.
Next Permanent Party Leader
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13.9%
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11.6%
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6.7%
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6.7%
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3.4%
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5.9%
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5.1%
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4.8%
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4.5%