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PartyGate: Is this finally the end of Boris and his stooges?

Will Boris be recreating this scene in the near future, against his will?
Will Boris be recreating this scene in the near future, against his will?

Well, the day has finally arrived. The day all sane people knew would come. The day the Metropolitan Police service has shown a bit of backbone, and found the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, and the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak to have broken lockdown rules over parties.

A total of 50 fines have been issued against Number 10, since the investigations into alleged parties were splashed over the papers. The PM has repeatedly told the Commons that he had no knowledge of any parties. But then, it was that he had knowledge but didn’t attend. But then wasn’t he ambushed with a cake? But all guidelines were followed, definitely. In fact, let’s just wait for the Sue Gray report, but that can’t be sent until the police have completed a thorough investigation.

Of course, he’s been caught out.

Is anyone surprised?
Is anyone surprised?

Not only has he lied to the house (a small matter of breaching the ministerial code, which should normally result in resignation), he’s lied to the country. To myself, to you, to your loved ones. Those of us who lost loved ones, who were able to be in a room of 10 at a funeral, who couldn’t say goodbye to those who meant most to us. Meanwhile, the men who made the rules were breaking them. Oh yes, did I mention Rishi Sunak was fined as well?

But what, if anything, will happen? As can be expected, they will both come out and blatantly not answer questions about lying, pointing to the fact that there’s unfortunately a war in Ukraine, that they will deem a bigger story. And in the grand scheme of things, it obviously isn’t, and whilst Boris has done well so far with regards to supporting Ukraine, he cannot be allowed to continue in this role.

We’ve taken a look at the odds of a number of markets, and allowed @petemarsden_ to rant his way through.

We’ll start off in what could potentially be the most current market at the moment. At the time of writing, Boris is as short as 13/8 to leave in 2022. That price has come in from around 3/1 on Tuesday morning, so obviously some shortening following the breaking news. Now in a normal democracy where leaders had a shred of integrity, Mr. Johnson would be driving up to Buckingham Palace to let Lizzy know that he can no longer continue in this position. But, as we all know, he’s not going to do that. 

As ITV’s Paul Brand mentions below, there are a number of things that the PM will look to use to let this scandal blow over, with the main one being the current Russian invasion of Ukraine. But, in my opinion, he surely can’t continue.

However, if he does get away with it, which considering his track record, he may just do, then I can’t see him leaving in 2023 (3/1), unless he literally goes and murders the Queen live on tele, that’s the stage we seem to be at in this country.

So, that leaves us with 2024 or later, currently odds-on in the betting. This goes hand in hand with the odds for the date of the next general election, which is also odds-on with seemingly all bookmakers. The key to whether he leaves or not will be seen in the upcoming week, and how many Tory MP’s will rally around him, or go to the 1922 Committee.

Next Permanent Party Leader

Kemi Badenoch
WIN PROB: 13%
1
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7/1
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7/1
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5/1
Boris Johnson
WIN PROB: 9%
1
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6/1
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6/1
Kwasi Kwarteng
WIN PROB: 8%
1
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9/1
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Rishi Sunak
WIN PROB: 7%
1
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9/1
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6/1
Penny Mordaunt
WIN PROB: 8%
1
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Ben Wallace
WIN PROB: 6%
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7/1
James Cleverly
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9/1
Suella Braverman
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Nadhim Zahawi
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Tom Tugendhat
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Sajid Javid
WIN PROB: 3%
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Steve Barclay
WIN PROB: 4%
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Dominic Raab
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Michael Gove
WIN PROB: 3%
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Stephen Barclay
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Jeremy Hunt
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Mark Harper
WIN PROB: 3%
1
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Priti Patel
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Therese Coffey
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Grant Shapps
WIN PROB: 1%
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Rehman Chishti
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1
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Jacob Rees-Mogg
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1
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Johnny Mercer
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1
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Tobias Ellwood
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Steve Baker
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Ranil Jayawardena
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Kit Malthouse
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Chloe Smith
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Jake Berry
WIN PROB: 2%
Bim Afolami
WIN PROB: 2%
1
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Simon Clarke
WIN PROB: 2%
Ben Houchen
WIN PROB: 1%
Chris Philip
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Oliver Dowden
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Ben Bradley
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Andrea Leadsom
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Matt Hancock
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Gavin Williamson
WIN PROB: 1%
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Alok Sharma
WIN PROB: 1%
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Graham Brady
WIN PROB: 1%
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William Wragg
WIN PROB: 1%
Douglas Ross
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Ruth Davidson
WIN PROB: 1%
Andrea Jenkyns
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Anne-Marie Trevelyan
WIN PROB: 1%
Damian Hinds
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Theresa May
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Lee Anderson
WIN PROB: 1%
Geoffrey Cox
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Robert Buckland
WIN PROB: 1%
Robert Jenrick
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Laura Trott
WIN PROB: 1%
Brandon Lewis
WIN PROB: 1%
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David Davis
WIN PROB: 1%
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Andrew Bridgen
WIN PROB: 1%
Marc Francois
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Nadine Dorries
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Odds correct as of 2022-09-27 12:43 Odds subject to change.

Ah yes, which of these ever so lovely people will have the privilege of potentially leading the country until at least the next general election. If Boris is to leave, or perhaps, be forced out, then the overwhelming favourite is Mrs. Pork Markets herself, good old Liz Truss (9/2). From being extremely anti-Brexit, to the countless photo ops, to seemingly placing herself in position to make a leadership bid, the current Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs seems to be the obvious choice at the current moment to take over.

Rishi Sunak is still in the running at as short a price as 7/1, but you have to think given the recent taxing scandal with his wife, and now being fined by the police, he may well have run himself out of the top job in this country. Still, I’m sure he’ll be able to relax, knowing that his better half is richer than the Queen herself.

Ben Wallace and Jeremy Hunt feature at 8/1 in the market, but neither feel like a genuine threat to the leadership in my eyes. If we really want to see how much of an embarrassment we can make of ourselves, Michael Gove is also available at anywhere ranging from 14/1 to 20/1.

The Tories to continue their 12-year dominance of our political sphere, or Keir Starmer to bring back Blair-Lite, that is the question.

I’m actually surprised that the Leader of the Opposition is the current favourite to become to next PM (as short as 5/2), given that we’d obviously have to have a General Election to get to that point. Still, as expected, Keir has come out all guns blazing, and called for Johnson and Sunak both to resign.

To me, the clearest candidate would be Liz Truss, as she looks the likely option to take over, should Johnson leave Number 10. As Truss attempts to hold Putin and Ukraine to account (I don’t think she actually could in fairness to her), my thinking is that she’ll be going over well with a lot of the middle-class voters in the country, who are susceptible to changing their minds come election time. She’s currently as short as 11/2 in the market, so we better get ready for more of this.

I could go on and on about Sunak (12/1) and the likes of Wallace (12/1) and Raab (20/1), but I really can’t see between either Starmer or Truss.

Whatever happens, the *fun* seems like it’s never going to end in Westminster. At least we’ve not got the worst cost of living crisis of a generation or two to live through, eh! 

What we need is a good old fashioned leader, someone who can take us back to the good old days, where we didn’t complain about how cold we were, or how much everything cost, or how nutritious the food we were eating was, no, we just used the good old Blitz Spirit to see us through to brighter days, and I think I’ve found the answer. Ladies and gentlemen, our should-be leader. Mr Mark Francois (500/1).

God help us all.

*Shudders*
*Shudders*
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