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BMW PGA Championship Tips & Predictions: Hatton can wow Wentworth

Tyrrell Hatton features amongst our BMW PGA Championship Tips & Predictions.
Tyrrell Hatton features amongst our BMW PGA Championship Tips & Predictions.

Our golf tipster Russell Palmer is back this week with another three golf tips on the European Tour with the BMW PGA Championship...

Long time followers of golf will be licking their lips this week looking forward to getting a peak at Wentworth in the Autumn. The West Course hosts this week's BMW PGA Championship, moved from its original May spot in the schedule, but a familiar setting for the old World Matchplay which was played around this track every year attracting the world's best players.

Outside of the Open Championship, the BMW PGA is the Blue Riband of the European Tour calendar and as a result has attracted a strong field. The betting is by Patrick Reed who makes the trip over from America where he last finished 13th in the US Open three weeks ago.

Joining Reed at around the 10/1 mark is Tommy Fleetwood, who lost out in a play-off to Aaron Rai at a very wet Scottish Open on Sunday, his best finish of the season.

My Scottish picks all went into the final round in the top 15 but it was a familiar story with them collectively failing to fire on Sunday. Andy Sullivan seemed best place but dropped to 26th with a +4 final round, whilst Gavin Green finished 42nd and Benjamin Hebert 19th, which was a decent effort for a 66/1 shot.

We dust ourselves off though and go again here for a tournament I'm really looking forward to.

Golf odds
BMW PGA Championship at a glance

First up this week I really like the look of Tyrrell Hatton to have a big week back on English soil for the first time since the Tour restarted.

The Englishman has been active on the PGA Tour and shown some fine form, finishing 3rd and 4th at the RBC Heritage and Rocket Mortgage Classic earlier in the summer, he'd also finish 7th in the Tour Championship in what bookended a season that saw his first victory Stateside when landing the Arnold Palmer Invitational before COVID.

He missed the cut at the US Open last time out but comes here fresh on a course where he finished 7th in 2016.

What I like most about him are his season stats, which saw him finish 38th for greens in regulation percentage last season (the 2020 season ended with the Tour Championship four weeks ago on the PGA Tour), a metric I'm keen to look at this week on some tricky greens at Wentworth. The tree lined fairways are very prominent here so I'm also looking at driving accuracy where Hatton ranked 78th on the PGA Tour, where his shots gained approaching the green he was 13th.

At 16/1 he represents a bit of each-way value and is the third highest ranked player in the world in this field, with Paddy Power paying eight places.

US Masters Odds

Second up is a player who like a lot at the stats this week and looks a very tasty price each-way at 66/1 with Bet365 paying six places.

Jordan Smith ranks 1st for greens in regulation on the European Tour this season and also backs that up with a top 20 rankings for driving accuracy (16th) and shots gained off the tee (20th).

The Englishman has two top ten finishes this season, most recently at the Irish Open where he finished in a tie for 7th. He's been very consistent missing two cuts from his ten starts since lockdown, and one of those was a withdrawal in Andalusia. 

At 66/1 he represents a bit of value on a course where he finished in the top 25 last season.

My last pick this week is the one and only Gavin Green who it feels like I'm putting up most weeks.

The Malaysian is a winner in waiting, a good ball striker he ranks 10th in driving accuracy and 9th for greens in regulation this season on the European Tour, but can also putt well where he's ranked 8th for shots gained.

He has five top 15 finishes from ten starts, including two top-10s this season and fell away with a final round 75 on Sunday in Scotland to cost him another one. He's missed just the one cut and if he can just piece it all together for four rounds he could feature here at a big price of 80/1 with 888Sport this week.

A solid but unspectacular two visits to Wentworth before (72, 52), I'm hoping for a big leap this week and get us in the hunt.

As ever, good luck with your bets if you're following and please gamble responsibly.

Follow me at Twitter @rustyboy75.

Post-lockdown form:

Winners

  • John Catlin - Irish Open - advised at 40/1
  • Jon Rahm - BMW Championship - advised at 14/1
  • Dustin Johnson - Northern Trust - advised at 20/1
  • Justin Thomas - WGC FedEx St Jude - advised at 12/1
  • Webb Simpson - RBC Heritage - advised at 30/1

Placed

  • Kristoffer Ventura - T6 Sanderson Farms Championship - advised at 80/1
  • Xander Schauffele - 5th US Open - advised at 16/1
  • Kristoffer Ventura - T7 Safeway Open - advised at 80/1
  • Laurie Canter - 2nd Portugal Masters - advised at 66/1
  • Si Woo Kim - T3 Wyndham Championship - advised at 40/1
  • Jason Day - T4 USPGA Championship - advised at 40/1
  • Phil Mickelson - 2nd WGC FedEx St Jude - advised at 110/1
  • Viktor Hovland - 3rd Workday Charity Open - advised at 25/1
  • Kevin Streelman - T7 Workday Charity Open - advised at 60/1
  • Tyrrell Hatton - T4 Rocket Mortgage Classic - advised at 16/1
BMW PGA Championship Odds

  • PROB
    %
Rory McIlroy
WIN PROB: 10%
Jon Rahm
WIN PROB: 8%
Bryson Dechambeau
WIN PROB: 7%
Dustin Johnson
WIN PROB: 7%
Justin Thomas
WIN PROB: 6%
Brooks Koepka
WIN PROB: 6%
Tiger Woods
WIN PROB: 5%
Tommy Fleetwood
WIN PROB: 4%
Xander Schauffele
WIN PROB: 3%
Jordan Spieth
WIN PROB: 3%
Justin Rose
WIN PROB: 3%
Shane Lowry
WIN PROB: 3%
Hideki Matsuyama
WIN PROB: 3%
Adam Scott
WIN PROB: 3%
Rickie Fowler
WIN PROB: 3%
Patrick Cantlay
WIN PROB: 3%
Louis Oosthuizen
WIN PROB: 2%
Henrik Stenson
WIN PROB: 2%
Patrick Reed
WIN PROB: 2%
Jason Day
WIN PROB: 2%
Webb Simpson
WIN PROB: 2%
Matt Kuchar
WIN PROB: 2%
Marc Leishman
WIN PROB: 2%
Paul Casey
WIN PROB: 2%
Collin Morikawa
WIN PROB: 2%
Tony Finau
WIN PROB: 2%
Tyrrell Hatton
WIN PROB: 2%
Sungjae Im
WIN PROB: 2%
Thomas Pieters
WIN PROB: 1%
Sergio Garcia
WIN PROB: 1%
Viktor Hovland
WIN PROB: 1%
Gary Woodland
WIN PROB: 1%
Rafa Cabrera-Bello
WIN PROB: 1%
Lee Westwood
WIN PROB: 1%
Alexander Noren
WIN PROB: 1%
Francesco Molinari
WIN PROB: 1%
Matthew Fitzpatrick
WIN PROB: 1%
Martin Kaymer
WIN PROB: 1%
Bubba Watson
WIN PROB: 1%
Robert MacIntyre
WIN PROB: 1%
Branden Grace
WIN PROB: 1%
Graeme McDowell
WIN PROB: 1%
Joost Luiten
WIN PROB: 1%
Byeong Hun An
WIN PROB: 1%
Matthew Wolff
WIN PROB: 1%
Danny Willett
WIN PROB: 1%
Matt Wallace
WIN PROB: 1%
Phil Mickelson
WIN PROB: 1%
Ian Poulter
WIN PROB: 1%
Tom Lewis
WIN PROB: 1%
Andy Sullivan
WIN PROB: 1%
Brandt Snedeker
WIN PROB: 1%
Russell Knox
WIN PROB: 1%
Bernd Wiesberger
WIN PROB: 1%
Eddie Pepperell
WIN PROB: 1%
Haotong Li
WIN PROB: 1%
Abraham Ancer
WIN PROB: 1%
Christian Bezuidenhout
WIN PROB: 1%
Thorbjrn Olesen
WIN PROB: 1%
Cameron Smith
WIN PROB: 1%
Kevin Na
WIN PROB: 1%
Joaquin Niemann
WIN PROB: 1%
Kevin Kisner
WIN PROB: 1%
Erik van Rooyen
WIN PROB: 1%
Matthias Schwab
WIN PROB: 1%
Keegan Bradley
WIN PROB: 1%
Mike Lorenzo-Vera
WIN PROB: 1%
Billy Horschel
WIN PROB: 1%
Jim Furyk
WIN PROB: 1%
Charl Schwartzel
WIN PROB: 1%
Paul Waring
WIN PROB: 1%
Zach Johnson
WIN PROB: 1%
Corey Conners
WIN PROB: 0%
Marcus Kinhult
WIN PROB: 0%
Emiliano Grillo
WIN PROB: 0%
Kurt Kitayama
WIN PROB: 0%
Andrew Johnston
WIN PROB: 0%
Victor Perez
WIN PROB: 0%
Padraig Harrington
WIN PROB: 0%
Romain Langasque
WIN PROB: 0%
Ryan Fox
WIN PROB: 0%
Cameron Champ
WIN PROB: 0%
Jazz Janewattananond
WIN PROB: 0%
Justin Harding
WIN PROB: 0%
Benjamin Hebert
WIN PROB: 0%
Dylan Frittelli
WIN PROB: 0%
Lucas Bjerregaard
WIN PROB: 0%
Chez Reavie
WIN PROB: 0%
Aaron Wise
WIN PROB: 0%
Andrew Putnam
WIN PROB: 0%
Shaun Norris
WIN PROB: 0%
Ernie Els
WIN PROB: 0%
Stewart Cink
WIN PROB: 0%
Jorge Campillo
WIN PROB: 0%
Matt Jones
WIN PROB: 0%
Shugo Imahira
WIN PROB: 0%
C.T. Pan
WIN PROB: 0%
Paul Lawrie
WIN PROB: 0%
Bernhard Langer
WIN PROB: 0%
Darren Clarke
WIN PROB: 0%
Marcus Armitage
WIN PROB: 0%
Jaco Ahlers
WIN PROB: 0%
Andy Ogletree
WIN PROB: 0%
John Daly
WIN PROB: 0%
David Duval
WIN PROB: 0%
Mark Calcavecchia
WIN PROB: 0%
Todd Hamilton
WIN PROB: 0%
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Odds correct as of 2020-10-26 21:26 Odds subject to change.
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