BMW PGA Championship Tips & Predictions: Hatton can wow Wentworth
Our golf tipster Russell Palmer is back this week with another three golf tips on the European Tour with the BMW PGA Championship...
- Tyrrell Hatton - 2pts each-way @ odds of 16/1 with Paddy Power (8 places)
- Jordan Smith - 1pt each-way @ odds of 66/1 with Bet365 (6 places)
- Gavin Green - 1pt each-way @ odds of 801 with 888Sport (6 places)
Long time followers of golf will be licking their lips this week looking forward to getting a peak at Wentworth in the Autumn. The West Course hosts this week's BMW PGA Championship, moved from its original May spot in the schedule, but a familiar setting for the old World Matchplay which was played around this track every year attracting the world's best players.
Outside of the Open Championship, the BMW PGA is the Blue Riband of the European Tour calendar and as a result has attracted a strong field. The betting is by Patrick Reed who makes the trip over from America where he last finished 13th in the US Open three weeks ago.
Joining Reed at around the 10/1 mark is Tommy Fleetwood, who lost out in a play-off to Aaron Rai at a very wet Scottish Open on Sunday, his best finish of the season.
My Scottish picks all went into the final round in the top 15 but it was a familiar story with them collectively failing to fire on Sunday. Andy Sullivan seemed best place but dropped to 26th with a +4 final round, whilst Gavin Green finished 42nd and Benjamin Hebert 19th, which was a decent effort for a 66/1 shot.
We dust ourselves off though and go again here for a tournament I'm really looking forward to.
First up this week I really like the look of Tyrrell Hatton to have a big week back on English soil for the first time since the Tour restarted.
The Englishman has been active on the PGA Tour and shown some fine form, finishing 3rd and 4th at the RBC Heritage and Rocket Mortgage Classic earlier in the summer, he'd also finish 7th in the Tour Championship in what bookended a season that saw his first victory Stateside when landing the Arnold Palmer Invitational before COVID.
He missed the cut at the US Open last time out but comes here fresh on a course where he finished 7th in 2016.
What I like most about him are his season stats, which saw him finish 38th for greens in regulation percentage last season (the 2020 season ended with the Tour Championship four weeks ago on the PGA Tour), a metric I'm keen to look at this week on some tricky greens at Wentworth. The tree lined fairways are very prominent here so I'm also looking at driving accuracy where Hatton ranked 78th on the PGA Tour, where his shots gained approaching the green he was 13th.
At 16/1 he represents a bit of each-way value and is the third highest ranked player in the world in this field, with Paddy Power paying eight places.
Second up is a player who like a lot at the stats this week and looks a very tasty price each-way at 66/1 with Bet365 paying six places.
Jordan Smith ranks 1st for greens in regulation on the European Tour this season and also backs that up with a top 20 rankings for driving accuracy (16th) and shots gained off the tee (20th).
The Englishman has two top ten finishes this season, most recently at the Irish Open where he finished in a tie for 7th. He's been very consistent missing two cuts from his ten starts since lockdown, and one of those was a withdrawal in Andalusia.
At 66/1 he represents a bit of value on a course where he finished in the top 25 last season.
My last pick this week is the one and only Gavin Green who it feels like I'm putting up most weeks.
The Malaysian is a winner in waiting, a good ball striker he ranks 10th in driving accuracy and 9th for greens in regulation this season on the European Tour, but can also putt well where he's ranked 8th for shots gained.
He has five top 15 finishes from ten starts, including two top-10s this season and fell away with a final round 75 on Sunday in Scotland to cost him another one. He's missed just the one cut and if he can just piece it all together for four rounds he could feature here at a big price of 80/1 with 888Sport this week.
A solid but unspectacular two visits to Wentworth before (72, 52), I'm hoping for a big leap this week and get us in the hunt.
As ever, good luck with your bets if you're following and please gamble responsibly.
Follow me at Twitter @rustyboy75.
Post-lockdown form:
Winners
- John Catlin - Irish Open - advised at 40/1
- Jon Rahm - BMW Championship - advised at 14/1
- Dustin Johnson - Northern Trust - advised at 20/1
- Justin Thomas - WGC FedEx St Jude - advised at 12/1
- Webb Simpson - RBC Heritage - advised at 30/1
Placed
- Kristoffer Ventura - T6 Sanderson Farms Championship - advised at 80/1
- Xander Schauffele - 5th US Open - advised at 16/1
- Kristoffer Ventura - T7 Safeway Open - advised at 80/1
- Laurie Canter - 2nd Portugal Masters - advised at 66/1
- Si Woo Kim - T3 Wyndham Championship - advised at 40/1
- Jason Day - T4 USPGA Championship - advised at 40/1
- Phil Mickelson - 2nd WGC FedEx St Jude - advised at 110/1
- Viktor Hovland - 3rd Workday Charity Open - advised at 25/1
- Kevin Streelman - T7 Workday Charity Open - advised at 60/1
- Tyrrell Hatton - T4 Rocket Mortgage Classic - advised at 16/1
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10%
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7.7%
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6.7%
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6.7%
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5.9%
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5.9%
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4.8%
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3.8%
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3.4%
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3.4%
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5
1/4 -
