Betfred British Masters Tips & Predictions: English duo to watch out for at the Belfry

We're delighted to welcome Jamie Worsley (@JWorsley89to the BettingOdds.com contributors team for all things golf as he previews the weekly PGA Tour event, major championships and top European Tour action starting this week with the British Masters with four selections...

Following on from three sun-soaked weeks in the Canary Islands, where birdies and lots of them were the order of the day, as well as being South African, the European Tour makes its first visit to the UK this year for the British Masters. Where players can expect to find rather contrasting, damp conditions with rain expected to fall every day preceding and during the event.

The host course this week is the iconic, four time Ryder Cup venue, The Belfry’s Brabazon Course. It’s been 13 years since we last saw a British Masters here but the course did return to the European Tour schedule last year, stepping in to host the final tournament of the Tour’s UK swing with the UK Championship. Where we saw Dane sensation Rasmus Hojgaard deny South African Justin Walters his first European Tour title in a playoff, in similarly wet conditions that we’re expected to have this week.

This tree-lined par 72, designed by Dave Thomas and the late Peter Alliss measures in at 7,253yds, not particularly long by modern standards. The teeth of the course comes from a series of tricky, longish par 4s, most notably the 6th and 18th holes, along with the long 226yd par 3 12th, one of only three par 3s on the course. The par 5s should all be reachable to the majority and along with the exciting, drivable par 4 10th hole, is where the players will be expecting to make the most of their chances.

I think it is fair to say that the field that has assembled here is not overly strong, which is probably partially down to some of the tour’s brightest stars choosing instead, to get some prep in for next week’s second major of the year, the USPGA Championship at Kiawah Island.

Scot, Robert MacIntyre is the undoubted standout and heads the market, along with Austrian Bernd Wiesberger and the English trio of Andy Sullivan, Sam Horsfield and tournament host, Danny Willett.

Other notables include last year’s winner at Close House, Renato Paratore, recent Tenerife Open winner Dean Burmester and of course, last year’s UK Championship winner Rasmus Hojgaard.

The seriously talented Horsfield really came of age last year during the UK swing, winning twice in three weeks, as well as a top 10 in the British Masters. Delivering on the promise offered by an excellent amateur career where he was as high as #2 in the world.

On to this year where he has enjoyed a rich vein of form since returning from a back injury that kept him out of the early part of the year. Finishes of 8th and 3rd in the two Kenyan events, followed by 15th in Austria and another top 5 with a 4th place finish in Gran Canaria. He missed the cut last time out on the PGA Tour in the Valspar Championship when venturing back over to his home in Florida. Though only missed it by one with the putter letting him down, which is usually one of the strongest parts of his game.

It’s hard to rely on form from 13 years ago, as the game has changed so much in that time but there’s a real sense that this course suits quality ball-strikers. With the likes of Lee Westwood, Paul Casey and Henrik Stenson amongst the winners here, all superb ball-strikers at their best. You can even look at the leaderboard here in the UK Championship last year to find a leaderboard littered with quality ball-strikers, including winner, Rasmus Hojgaard.

Horsfield definitely falls into this category. Ranking 11th tee-to-green and 7th in approach, this big hitting American Englishman has been hitting the ball excellently in the handful of events this year and think he’ll find this test to his liking.

After those two wins last year, he’s a big player in these events when looking like being in anything close to his best form and I’m taking him as the pick of the market leaders this week.

Speaking of quality ball-strikers, Andy Sullivan has consistently been one of the best in Europe in recent years. Though that has not been the case for much of this year. 

Recent form figures of 68th, 19th, 42nd and 71st don’t immediately jump out but it’s worth noting he hasn’t missed a cut yet this year despite not having his best game and didn’t shoot worse than 70 in the 71st place finish. One of the Canary Islands birdie-fests.

Admittedly this is mainly a bet based on price, as I really don’t see him as a 35/1 shot in this field at this course, where he finished 9th last year and is a mere half an hour drive from where he lives.

He excelled last year in the UK swing, winning the English Championship at a canter, notching up another couple of top 10s and think this represents as likely an event in the coming weeks to see a return to form from him.

Kawamura had a bit of a sticky start to this year but has really found his feet in recent weeks. Making four of his last five cuts and finishing no worse than 33rd. Most encouragingly, this typically neat and tidy Japanese player has found something with his irons the last couple of weeks, which are often hit and miss, ranking 18th and 10th in approach play in the two consecutive events in Tenerife.

A more obscure reason for backing him is the potential correlation between this course and the Heritage Golf Club, one of the courses used for the Mauritius Open. Rasmus Hojgaard’s first win came there, his second here at the Belfry last year. Justin Walters 2nd here last year recorded top 20s in the ’15 and ’17 Mauritius Open. The likes of Calum Hill, Laurie Canter and Thorbjorn Olesen are also amongst the players to have crossover form at the two courses. Kawamura has twice teed it up at the course finishing 5th in 2015 and 22nd in 2017.

These links can often be a little spurious, especially when you’re dealing with just one recent bit of course form here at The Belfry but along with his encouraging iron play in recent weeks and a solid 47th place finish here last year I feel he’s worth chancing at the price with the 10 places on offer.

Of the others, Sean Crocker makes appeal at 60/1, he’s been playing solidly this year and is an excellent ball-striker. I suspect the absolute birdie fests in the Canaries haven’t been best suited to his game and he may contend better here. 

Though it’s previously mentioned Calum Hill that makes the most appeal of the rest. That potential Mauritius link aside the talented Scot has been playing excellent golf all year. From chasing home Dustin Johnson, Tony Finau and Justin Rose in Saudi Arabia, to the two top 10s in Kenya and a 12th place finish last week.

All aspects of his game have been firing, not always at the same time but he’s clearly in excellent nick and after finishing 9th last year, he goes in there as the final selection of the week.