Bermuda Championship 2021 Betting Tips & Odds: Euro Tour stalwarts fancied

With only a handful of PGA Tour events remaining in 2021, we head to Port Royal Golf Course for the Bermuda Championship. An event returning for the third time, after its introduction in 2019.

Designed by legendary architect, Robert Trent Jones, the Port Royal Golf Course in Southampton, Bermuda, is a par 71 measuring 6828 yards. Making it one of the shortest courses on the PGA Tour’s schedule.

Fairways are tight, with many doglegs making it imperative to place your ball well off the tee. The large bermuda greens are protected by some rather severe run-off areas and a wealth of steep bunkering. 

Plenty of water in-play provides further danger around the course. Particularly down the closing stretch, including the spectacular par 3 16th hole, in which the green sits high above the Atlantic Ocean.

We’ve had two contrasting renewals of this event. In the inaugural tournament in 2019, Brendon Todd won in comfortable conditions with a score of -24 in a low scoring affair. A different story last year, with Brian Gay coming out victorious in a play-off over Wyndham Clark, -15 good enough to get into that playoff with the weather preventing a repeat of the low scoring in 2019. As the players had to cope with strong winds throughout the week. 

This looks the case again this year, with stormy, windy weather forecast. If the current forecast does come to fruition, it would also be safe to expect a fair few weather delays during the course of the tournament. 

Though both of the events so far have been won in contrasting conditions, there has been something extremely familiar about the two winners. Brian Gay and Brendon Todd rating as two of the shortest hitters on tour and also ranking amongst the better putters over their time.

With this we get a pretty solid group of correlative course form. Both Gay and Todd also possess wins in the Mayakoba Classic, as well as strong records in the RBC Heritage, RSM Classic and at Colonial. Events played on small islands, often affected by the wind should provide further clues – the Sony Open in Hawaii, Corales Puntacana in the Dominican Republic and the Puerto Rico Open coming to mind.

An expectedly weak field, with world #24 Patrick Reed a surprising highest entry. Littered with Korn Ferry Tour graduates, the strength of the field offers the perfect chance for one of those players to taste their first victory on the PGA Tour.

The market is headed by recent Valderrama winner, Matthew Fitzpatrick, with South Africa’s Christiaan Bezuidenhout second in the betting. Both looking a decent fit here but with the potentially difficult conditions, I’m unwilling to get stuck in too far up the betting and combined with the field strength, feel it may be a week to get stuck into some bigger prices. With this in mind my first selection of the week comes from way down at 50/1, with David Lipsky. 

The last time we saw Lipsky he was finishing an excellent 4th in the Andalucia Masters at Valderrama. An event where accuracy and a quality short game is the pre-requisite to success, much like this week’s test. He was strong in all those aspects that week, ranking 2nd in greens-in regulation, 23rd in driving accuracy, 24th around-the-greens and 24th in putting.

This was the most recent performance of a strong 18 months for Lipsky. One that has seen him go from solid two-time European Tour winner, to finally securing playing rights on the PGA Tour, thanks in part, to a victory on the Korn Ferry Tour in Texas last year. His game on the Korn Ferry Tour very much backing up the requirements this week, where he ranked high in driving accuracy and scrambling.

He’s started solidly on the PGA Tour, finishing 22nd in the Fortinet Championship, before a missed cut last time out. Now a player with four wins on three different tours, Lipsky can take advantage of the low quality field and favourable setup that awaits this week to pick up won number five on a fourth different tour.

Another player coming here off the back of a good showing at Valderrama, Aaron Rai is the sort of straight, steady type to have on side this week.

After attaining his PGA Tour card at Korn Ferry Tour finals, Rai has initially struggled on the PGA Tour, missing his first three cuts. Though, either side of those three missed cuts he’s gone well in Europe. First finishing 14th at Wentworth in the BMW PGA Championship and then on his latest start when he finished 25th at Valderrama. A week where he was excellent tee-to-green, ranking 16th, but was let down by his putter.

Though he’ll undoubtedly be disappointed by those three missed cuts in the States, he hasn’t played terribly. Only missing by 1 shot in the Fortinet Championship and then by a couple at the Shriners Open. With this I’m not too concerned as he arrives at by far the most suitable test yet in Bermuda and can give a true showing of himself here.

He’s a two-time winner on the European Tour now and both victories look like good pointers as to his chances this week. His first win coming in the Hong Kong Open back in 2018, an event in which the leaderboard is usually littered with straighter hitters. He doubled his tally in the Scottish Open last year, on a brutally difficult week in terms of the weather, with wind and rain causing trouble over the four days. Showing he’s more than capable of handling the tough conditions should they arrive at Port Royal this week.

I expect this classy player to eventually transfer his game over to the PGA Tour and as an ideal statistical fit for this week, can improve drastically on those first three results.

Short track and tough weather conditions. Graeme McDowell was the first name I looked for in the market this week, having proven on more than one occasion that he shouldn’t be ignored under these circumstances.

He’s had a poor year so far. Making just 7 cuts in 16, though has returned in better form since his 9-week break following the Scottish Open, having made consecutive cuts on his last three starts. The best when finishing 22nd in the Dutch Open. 

However, his best finish of the year was a 4th in the Corales Puntacana Championship, an event he won back in 2019. A positive due to it being an event often at the mercy of the conditions.

Further encouragement can be found with his most recent win at the start of 2020, in the Saudi International. A course measuring just over 7000-yards, often windy, which was the case on a really tricky week when he ran out a 2 shot winner, thanks to a fantastic week on and around the greens.

Added to that, he’s a past winner of the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town and has also gone well at other correlative courses, most notably when 4th in the Sony Open in Hawaii.

He no longer possesses the consistency but has shown, with victories in each of the last two years, that he’s still more than capable when finding an event which plays to his strengths. That is very much the case here this week.

Three players at triple figures now, starting with Canada’s Adam Svensson. Who possesses a combination of correlative form and the right stats for this week’s test. 

After losing his PGA Tour card in 2019, Svensson secured his return to the main tour with a superb year on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2021. Picking up two titles and finishing 3rd on the money list. 

Though he’s started the PGA Tour season a little slowly, with finishes of 51-MC-MC in his first three events, this week offers a much better chance for him to stamp his name nearer the top of the leaderboard.

As shown by his stats on the Korn Ferry Tour last season, he looks the ideal type for this test. He ranked 6th in driving accuracy, 11th in greens-in-reg, 19th in scrambling and 34th in putting. Representing the accurate type that has done so well here the last two years.

Those two victories on the Korn Ferry Tour this year made it three wins on the tour for him in total and it’s his first victory which offers the most hope as to his chances this week. That victory came in 2018 in the Great Abaco Classic in the Bahamas, an event typically affected by strong wind and if we look down the leaderboard there, one of the names behind him, in 4th, was last year’s runner-up here in Bermuda, Wyndham Clark.

He also possesses strong performances in the Corales Puntacana, when finishing 6th there in 2017, when it was still a Korn Ferry Tour event. Then a 9th place finish in the Great Exuma Classic last year, another event held in the windswept Bahamas, providing further positives.

With the game to suit and form in the right places, I think Svensson will improve considerably on those three PGA Tour starts to date here in Bermuda.

After having to attend the Korn Ferry Tour finals this year to retain his tour card, Austin Cook has enjoyed a good start to the season. Finishing 11th in the Fortinet Championship and 67th in the Sanderson Farms. As a past winner of the RSM Classic he should be well suited to this week’s event and can build on that strong start to the 2021/22 season by contending this week in Bermuda.

It’s been four years since Cook announced himself on the scene with victory at Sea Island and it’s safe to say he’s not quite managed to kick on since that win. The last two years in particular, in which he’s only managed to record one top 10 finish.

That top 10 was, however, an impressive 2nd place finish in last year’s Shriners Open. Even more pertinent to his credentials this week is the fact he put up that finish in windy conditions, particularly in the final round, when he shot the 3rd best round of the day. 

He’s the right type for this week, being straight off-the-tee, ranking 45th in driving accuracy last year and is a strong putter, ranking 48th. Combined with the recent positive results and a piece of particularly strong correlative form, he looks ripe for a good showing this week.

There are very few players who can attest to winning their first two professional starts, but that’s exactly what Ben Kohles did back in 2012 on the Korn Ferry Tour.

Fast forward nine years and he’s still stuck on two titles, spending most of that time back on the Korn Ferry Tour. Though after a really consistent two year spell, that has seen him miss just 11 cuts in 43 and put up 7 top 10s, including a couple of runner-up finishes, Kohles has made his way back to the main tour for the second time.

He’s started the season with a couple of missed cuts, firstly when missing by some way at Silverado in the Fortinet Championship but improved on that markedly next time out, when just losing out by a shot in the Sanderson Farms. 

Statistically he looks an ideal fit for this week. Last year on the Korn Ferry Tour, he ranked 2nd in greens-in-reg, 5th in scrambling, 10th in driving accuracy and 42nd in putting. Again the kind of straight hitter I feel we need to be on this week.

Like Svensson he has great form in the Bahamas, finishing 2nd in the Exuma Classic in 2019 and 9th in the Abaco Classic back in 2017. Also possessing multiple top 10s in the Wichita Open, at Crestview Country Club, another Trent-Jones design.

Hailing from Texas he’ll be more than accustomed to windy conditions and can build further on the narrow missed cut last time out.