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Australian Open Betting Tips: Two picks for this year's Grand Slam

Australian Open Betting Tips: Thiem is a good price for this year's Grand Slam
Australian Open Betting Tips: Thiem is a good price for this year's Grand Slam

2020 was a year most of us are hoping to forget and move on from and what better way to start the year than a tennis Grand Slam! The Australian Open will be underway in the coming weeks and I’ve taken a look at two value picks for who I think can go all the way. 

Every Grand Slam is always a star-studded event, even with Roger Federer withdrawing from the tournament we still have the likes of Djokovic, Nadal, Thiem and Medvedev competing for the title. Astonishingly, Novak Djokovic has won seven of the last 10 Australian Open titles which means it should come as no surprise to see him as the even-money favourite for this year's event.

However, the ‘next-gen’ are truly maturing in their game and I can see an upset happening this time. Last tennis season we saw Dominic Thiem finally break the trend of the big three, winning Grand Slams as he claimed the US Open, and I’m hoping this trend continues with another winner.

Before we make some predictions, here’s a set of stats and trends for the Australian Open over the last 10 years that might give you some pointers.

  • Eight out of the last 10 winners were ranked inside the top 3 in the world, the lowest-ranked was Roger Federer (17) in 2017 but he was fairly underrated at that tournament due to inactivity
  • Nine of the last ten winners had already won a grand slam tournament, Stan Wawrinka in 2014 is the only anomaly here
  • Eight out of ten winners had reached at least the Quarter Final of the US Open the previous season
Daniil Medvedev to win the tournament
11/2
Odds correct as of 2021-02-02 10:00 Odds subject to change.

Daniil Medvedev is the man in form at the moment, and to be honest, I’m quite shocked to see him as the third favourite in the betting order. He’s currently representing odds of 11/2 with some bookies and I think it’s a terrific price. Daniil is coming into the tennis season fresh off back-to-back tournament wins at the end of 2020, one of them being the ATP Tour Finals - arguably one of the best tournaments of the year.

As well as having form on his side, Medvedev has a great record against some of ‘the big three’. Against Djokovic, Daniil has played him seven times winning three of them, however, it is important to note that two of Novak’s wins came in 2017, which was ultimately a less experienced version of Medvedev. What makes Medvedev’s last tournament win so impressive is the people he faced and how he beat them.

He managed to beat Zverev, Djokovic, and Schwartzman all in straight sets, and he also beat Nadal in the semi-final after dropping the first set and Thiem in the final after dropping the first set. It’s clear Daniil has sorted out his mental block and his recent acquisition of a sports psychologist has dramatically improved his game.

I think it’s clear that Medvedev’s favourite/best performing surface is definitely the hard court, thankfully that’s what the Aus Open is! He’s got quite the decent record on the surface…

  • Hard court win-rate: 116 wins 48 losses (71% win rate)
  • Australian Open best finish: 4th round
  • US Open best finish: Runner-up
Australian Open Betting
Dominic Thiem to win the tournament
5/1
Odds correct as of 2021-02-02 10:00 Odds subject to change.

Now Medvedev might not match all the previous trends of but there’s one man who ticks off a fair few boxes and it’s Dominic Thiem.

Thiem finally broke his Grand Slam duck after losing three finals in the space of two years, he managed to get an impressive win over young Alexander Zverev in the US Open where he went two sets down and came back to win 6-2, 6-4, 4-6, 3-6, 6-7. Going back to the aforementioned stats and trends, the Austrian matches all three of the ones mentioned.

The 27-year-old is currently ranked third in the ATP rankings and he’s fresh from winning his first major which was the 2020 US Open. Of course, the likes of Novak Djokovic and Rafa Nadal match them as well but I’d be leaning more towards Thiem with his recent form and being the latest hard court Grand Slam winner.

He was also the finalist in last year's Australian Open where he, unfortunately, fell to Novak Djokovic in the final despite at one point leading the Serbian 2-1 in sets. This was a great account for Thiem as I feel this was his turning point in majors, he is now going toe to toe with the best on hard surfaces and not just clay. 

No matter who wins this one, we could be in for one of the most competitive Australian Open’s in recent times.

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