ATP Finals: Prediction and Betting Tips for Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic
Posted: 09:25 Sunday 19th November 2023
After seven intense days, we’re finally down to the final two as Jannik Sinner takes on Novak Djokovic in the fight for the ATP Finals title.
Beyond the trophy, this final holds immense significance. For Djokovic, it's a chance to solidify his legacy even more among tennis greats, as he bids to win his seventh title.
For Sinner, it's an opportunity to win his first-ever ATP Finals title.
Max Saakyan previews the match along and provides his best bet.
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Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic Tips
Jannik Sinner/Novak Djokovic Under 24.5 Games
The pair face each the second time this tournament. They both managed to fend off Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev in the Green Group, but Jannik Sinner came out on top after beating Novak Djokovic in impressive fashion: 7-5 6-7 7-6.
It was a tight three set battle, where the Italian broke Djokovic's 19 match winning streak to claim his first career victory over the World No.1.
It was the Serb's first loss since that fateful day in Wimbledon when he lost out in the final to Carlos Alcaraz in five sets.
The match between the two was so tight, that they actually won the exact same number of points: 109 each.
SInner is now the only player on the tour to have wins over Djokovic, Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev in 2023.
To make this more impressive, he's beaten the Spaniard and Russian twice and three times respectively.
Let's make this even greater, after his most recent win Sinner has now won eight consecutive matches against top 10 players.
Jannik Sinner Over 8.5 aces
Novak Djokovic Over 8.5 aces
Sinner has opened up as an underdog in the bookies.
Surprisingly, the Italian is a bigger underdog in the final compared to the group match earlier this week.
One of the reasons for this could be that he had to go through Daniil Medvedev in three sets, while Djokovic rolled through the tired Alcaraz in straight sets 6-3 6-2.
It’s a funny old game, where many are angry at the Italian for beating Holger Rune in the group stages. As if he lost on purpose, this would have knocked the World No. 1 out.
Although I hate the concept of under games, I do think that the 24.5 number is far too high, where the number should be closer to the 23 games.
Another bet that's a stand out is the aces prop on Bet365. In their last match earlier this week, Djokovic managed 20 aces while Sinner had 15.
The past two match ups have seen Djokovic ace more than the Italian, so I think we're seeing some value in the prop. Similar with the over aces for both players.
Novak Djokovic to have more aces
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